Black Friday?

Looks like there might be a significant market move tomorrow, "Black Friday", due to a possible debt default by Dubai....a focal point of the boom before the bust:

Crash into early-December?

The stock market is cycling a half lunar cycle off of the 1929 and 1987 patterns as overviewed in my 10/14 blog. The crashes in '29 and '87 occurred between the full moon and new moon in the latter half of the second lunar cycle following a new moon top.

The equivalent new moon top this year occurred around the Oct. 18th new moon (10/19 top in broad market indices). The first lunar cycle has completed with the new moon on 11/16 and this had been associated with a secondary high in mass mood with the DJIA and other key indices reaching all-time highs while the broader market has not.

We are now into the second lunar cycle after the top using the 29-87-09 analogy. This is the cycle when the crashes occurred in '29 and '87 following the full moon. As shown below, recent correlation between mass mood and the lunar cycle suggests a low into the full moon instead of the next new moon. If so, this suggests the possibility of a crash into the upcoming full moon on Dec. 2nd. If a collapse in mass mood lasts until the next new moon, this would run until December 16th. (Note that the full moon December 2nd falls six weeks before a solar eclipse on January 15th, 2010, so there's a 'Puetz eclipse crash window' from November 26th - Thanksgiving - to December 5th. Maybe "Black Friday" will be a major disappointment?)


Carolan.org


MarketOracle.co.uk

For those who are doubtful of lunar effects on mass mood and the stock market, read the following:

The Lunar Cycle and Stock Returns

Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon

The Spiral Calendar: Chapter One

Russia and Iran: A Marriage Made In Hell

I love the Russian and Iranian people, but their governments have to go. I think it's most telling that in recent street protests where the crowds are supposed to be chanting "Down With Israel!" and/or "Down With America!" the Iranian people are instead chanting "Down With Russia!":



This speaks volumes.

Misleaders rule at the connivance of the people. When the people no longer cooperate in the deception, their control is gone. Hence, truth is the ultimate weapon against the Lawless One.

Regarding truth, it's becoming clear the Russia is having Iran tell terrifying lies in order to lure Israel into committing suicide.

In an article I wrote in 2006, "Is Iran Trying To Start World War Three?", I overview how Iran's nuclear program seems more geared to elicit an Israeli military strike than to actually produce a nuclear bomb. This pattern of deception is now coming to fruition.

An Answer

Here's an answer I've provided in a discussion I'm engaged in at The Tree Of Liberty forum...

Quote:

The Bible makes it very clear that when Jesus returns "they will see Him in the air" and it will be at the end of the tribulation.

There is a great deal of symbolism and metaphor used throughout the Bible. One must be careful not to get lost in "literal interpretations" that can lead you down the path of self-righteous foolishness. The universe, after all, was not literally created in seven days....or even 7,000 years for those who extend unreasonably limited latitude in their human judgments.

"The Book" is written as part of establishing God's authorship of human history. Prophecy is one of the most profound ways God proves His authorship as only the Author can know the next chapter before it unfolds. The New Testament was particularly grounded in explaining how Old Testament prophecy about the coming Jewish messiah was fulfilled by Jesus.

Now why would God create this story in which we currently dwell? I would suggest the plot is to express His meaning to His creatures. In this sense, John's passage that 'Jesus is the Word of God' is poignant.

A word is used for the purpose of expressing meaning. In essence, this is what Jesus represented IMHO....a created persona to express God's meaning to this world.

With regard to the "second coming", this is the next critical chapter in God's Book. Thus, the fulfillment of prophecies pertaining to the Apocalypse and the associated realization of the Kingdom of God is proof to this world of God's authorship.

What has been impressed upon me is that man's deviation from God's will has served His creative purposes. Over the past 2,000 years global society has developed and, particularly during the last 200 years, this has been driven by the rise of secular reasoning in opposition to religious faith. This DEVIation in the thinking of creatures from belief in their Creator has been the engine of creative change. What's more, this process has been driven by popular servitude to Mammon (collective pursuit of material wealth) rather than God. The result has been the generation of the physical basis and technical knowhow for actually establishing a harmonious global society, i.e., the Kingdom of God. In this sense, man was designed by God to go against God for God to achieve His objective for this world.

However, in going against "The Truth", which is essentially "make believe" and engenders tremendous imagination and creativity, the inevitable consequence has been the development of extraordinary popular delusions doomed to be corrected by reality. This correction ultimately will take the form of "The Apocalypse", i.e., the revelation of the truth....the revelation of God. The Great Tribulation of The Apocalypse entails the painful collective consequences caused by man going against God's will as spelled out in His Book and expressed by the Word of Jesus. If people fail to love God and love their fellow human beings, ultimately this results in a catastrophic self-destructive outcome. Of course, God, being our Author, recognizes this from the beginning.

But is God sadistic?

The Old Testament notion of God would suggest so.

After all, if God created man to be erroneous and then man is eternally punished for his erroneous ways then God is seemingly sadistic.

The New Testament notion of God corrects this view in that God becomes a creature to suffer the punishment for the sins of His creatures....an ultimate expression of love. Furthermore, I believe this act is necessary to establish justice. The creation could not proceed if it were not for the errant ways of God's creatures. Sinfulness and creativity go hand-in-hand and hence man's propensity to sin furthers God's creation. So if man is designed to sin, and is subject to God's judgment for sinning, then, to be fair, God should subject himself to such judgment if His creatures are fulfilling His plan for creation through their inevitable, prophetically predicted sinfulness.

What's more, at the end of the age, when all the bits and pieces have come together for establishing the Kingdom of God through man's 2,000 years of sinful pursuits, then God should return to this world for the difficult conclusion to the historic work. But his return should not be to violently punish man for his predictable wrongdoings, since, after all, this served the purpose of God's creation. Rather, he should return to suffer the negative consequences of sinfulness with his errant creatures who laid the groundwork for his Kingdom. This, after all, would express a loving, just God as opposed to a sadistic, unfair one. If the latter is your preference, look to the Kremlin for god's kingdom. If the former seems right, I believe that's why I'm here.

JMHO.

Charting Collective Insanity

Irrational investor optimism relative to harsh historical reality is currently at an unprecedented, untenable extreme.

Since the Elliott Wave Primary wave one low in the Grand Supercycle bear market reached in early-March, the stock market has rallied more than 60% in a distinct A-B-C retracement pattern:



Meanwhile, the economy has barely started recovering from the devastating blow to collective confidence that occurred with the recent financial crisis. Earnings for S&P 500 corporations remain mired in a historic collapse:


(S&P 500 Earnings, Inflation Adjusted)

Consequently, the divergence between stock prices and actual corporate earnings is at an unprecedented extreme as measured by the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio:





While Wall Street is celebrating a banner year with record bonuses soon to be had by the financial elite that paved the path to economic collapse, Main Street continues to relentlessly suffer from job losses and financial hardship as the government recovery plan has fallen far short of projections:



"What's good for Wall Street is good for Main Street" is proving to be a tragic assumption (ass-u-me) for governing authorities who have sold their souls to a den of thieves.

But be assurred....God is in control, not mann.

Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal: For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.

No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other; or else he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You can not serve both God and Mammon.

- Matthew 6: 19-21,24

- Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.

- Romans 12:19

And said, Naked came I out of my mother's womb, and naked shall I return thither: the Lord gave, and the Lord hath taken away; blessed be the name of the Lord.

- Job 1: 20-21

The Fall Of The Berlin Wall & The Rise Of The Antichrist

Twenty years ago today the Berlin Wall came down separating East and West Germany in probably the most high profile event ushering in the fall of Communism and collapse of the Soviet Union:



Unfortunately, it was all too good to be true.

The details surrounding the fall of the Berlin Wall, which, in turn, opened the way for the "velvet revolutions" that freed up the Warsaw Pact nations and eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, reeked of nonsensical falsity. Why were the protest movements in East Germany not repressed and, in fact, were encouraged by the inaction of communist authorities? Why did the Soviet Union reject requests for assistance by the East German government? Why did the entire East German politburo resign in one full swoop unless this was a rubber-stamped decision? Why did East Germany's communist leader order border crossings to West Germany be opened and then people were allowed to pass en masse without proper visas? Why were protesters able to approach and climb atop the Berlin Wall without being stopped by effective force? Etc., etc., etc.

The hard truth is that none of this would have unfolded unless it was authorized and instigated by communist authorities and Moscow. Nevertheless, because the history being scripted by the Kremlin and Russia's intelligence services two decades ago was what the West wanted to believe, critical judgment was set aside on behalf of political expedience and popular opinion.

Sadly, the few people who come across this blog are likely befuddled by what they've just read because the "strong delusion" of this world that followed from the feigned collapse of communism is simply a lie too tempting for the world to resist. Robert Buchar, a Czechoslovakian political refugee, has put together a critical documentary, "The Collapse Of Communism: The Untold Story", that exposes the 'big lie' the world has been told:



But, because he can't raise $40,000 to purchase rights to some news video clips, the movie remains incomplete and unreleased. Given that what the film reveals is critical to the survival of Western Civilization and the free world, it speaks volumes that the fimmmaker can't raise such a piddly sum in this wealthy day and age. This world simply isn't interested in the truth.

The words written by Paul some 2,000 years ago were spot on about what is unfolding on the world stage:

The coming of the lawless one is by the activity of Satan with all power and false signs and wonders, and with all wicked deception for those who are perishing, because they refused to love the truth and so be saved. Therefore God sends them a strong delusion, so that they may believe what is false, in order that all may be condemned who did not believe the truth but had pleasure in unrighteousness [2 Thessalonians 2:9-12].

The rise of the Antichrist is well underway:





That this is the case can easily be discerned by examining Russia's state emblem as adopted in 1993, soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union. (The state emblem had been the well-known hammer and sickle of communism up to the change over.). Here's an image of the central Coat of Arms:


Now here is the Byzantine Empire emblem that appears above the front entrance of the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople which signifies the Second Rome:


The main difference is the central image in the Russian state emblem of St. George on a white horse slaying the satanic serpent....which, in a modern context, represents Russia slaying the satanic evil of the West.

There are, of course, rather dire implications for the world, and Western Civilization in particular, if, indeed, Russia fancies itself a Third Rome. First off, bear in mind that the concept of the "Third Rome" is parallel to the "Third Reich" of Nazi Germany:

The name Third Reich (Drittes Reich, "Third Reich") refers to the state as the successor to the Holy Roman Empire of the Middle Ages and the German Empire of 1871–1918. (Wikipedia)

Thus, the current mentality of the Kremlin is on par with that of Hitler's Third Reich. What's worse, Russia's identification with being a Third Rome means that the leader is upheld not just as a czar but, more so, as Czar of Czars, i.e., the incarnation of Christ (READ: "Czar" = C-zar = Caesar). In this sense, the utopian social goal of Communism is displaced by a utopian totalitarian goal of Russia's version of the kingdom of god. Also, since Jews are deemed to be responsible for the murder of Jesus, they are therefore the primary target of divine Russian retribution....thus making "Zionism", purportedly advanced by Israel and America, primary strategic targets of Moscow's thermonuclear machinations.

Of course, the truth of the matter is that Constantine I hijacked the message of Christ for personal deification in order to cement control over his empire. This is no different than what the modern-day ruling elite of Russia are up to.

Russia's Mission

The Russian Idea proceeded....from the belief that the contemporary world was suffering from a global spiritual crisis 'carrying humankind headlong toward catastrophe' (in the words of a present day prophet). It pointed to the inability of the secularized, materialistic and cosmopolitan West to come to grips with this crisis, whose historical source lay in the secular Enlightenment: in the West's rejection of religion as the spiritual basis of politics and in its inability to realize that not the individual but the nation is the foundation of the world order conceived by God; that 'humankind is quantified by nations'.

The Russian Idea pointed to the providential role of Orthodoxy, as uniquely capable of pulling back the world from the brink of the abyss, and to Russia as the instrument of this great mission. While the Russian Idea rejected the 'government's interference in the moral life of the people' (the police state), it also denounced the 'people's interference in state power' (democracy). To both of these it opposed the 'principle of AUTHORITARIAN power'. The state, it taught, must be unlimited because 'only under unlimited monarchial power can the people separate the government from themselves and free themselves to concentrate on moral-social life, on the drive for spiritual freedom'.

The Russian idea did not acknowledge the central postulate of Western political thought concerning the separation of powers (as the institutional embodiment of the neutralization of vice by vice). Instead, it advocated the principle of separation of functions between temporal and spiritual powers: the state guards the country against external foes and the Orthodox church settles the nation's internal conflicts....It cherished the ideal of the nation cum family, requiring neither parliaments, political parties, nor separation of powers. Like the family, the nation would have no need of legal guarnatees or institutional limitations on state's power and its focus should not be the rights, but rather the obligations of its members. The nation's conflicts, according to the Russian Idea, must be reconciled by spiritual, rather than constitutional, authority.

The ideal of the nation as family presupposed the need for salvation from the sinful influences of the 'street' (the West) and, consequently, from a spiritual rebirth and a moral revolution. In the course of this Russia would return 'home' to its pure rural roots, to the tsarist Rus'...

(Excerpt from Yanov's The Russian Challenge, pp.24-25)

---

"Today the Soviet system can no longer seriously strive toward the spectre of Communism - but at the same time it cannot yet abandon the grandeur of its tasks, for otherwise it would have to answer for fruitless sacrifices which are truly innumerable. But in what then can the Soviet system find its justification? Only in the consciousness that it was unconsciously in the past, as it is now quite consciously, God's instrument for constructing a new Christian world. It has no other justification, and this is . . . a genuine and great justification. By adopting it, our state will discover in itself a truly inexhaustable source of Truth, spiritual energy and strength, which has never before existed in history . . . The old pagan world has now finally outlived its era . . . In order not to perish with it we must build a new civilization - but is Western society, whose foundations have been destroyed, really capable of this? Only the Soviet sytem, having adopted Russian Orthodoxy . . . is capable of beginning THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD." (Passage written by Russian nationalist G.M. Shimanov quoted in Yanov's The Russian Challenge, p.236)

---

From outward appearances it would seem that the old Soviet Union has returned. A thing crucified, dead and buried has been resurrected. Four weeks after Vladimir Putin’s re-election, a procession led by the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church arrived at the Church of Christ the Redeemer in Moscow. In keeping with ancient tradition the doors of the church were shut, symbolizing the sealed cave where Christ’s body was placed following crucifixion. “After midnight,” noted Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya, “the Orthodox faithful taking part in the procession await the opening of the church doors. The patriarch stands on the steps at their head and is the first to enter the empty temple where the Resurrection of Christ has already occurred.” In due course the Patriarch offered up a prayer, the doors of the Church of Christ the Redeemer were opened and out stepped President Vladimir Putin. If any Christians were present for this ceremony they offered no protest to this blatant sacrilege. The woman who reported this event for the benefit of Western readers has since been assassinated. The KGB defector who was investigating the circumstances of her death has been poisoned (i.e., Litvinenko). [SOURCE]

Note that Vladimir Putin took power in Moscow on December 31st, 1999, at the turn of the Millenium. Given that a day is like a thousand years to the Lord, Putin's rise to power was supposed to symbolize how Christ rose on the third day, i.e., on January 1st, 2000, the holy (the term is used loosely here) Russian empire (i.e., the "Third Rome") and its 'tsar of tsars' (i.e., king of kings) "resurrected".

Robert Prechter: Conquer The Crash II

Bob Prechter has been busy making rounds in the business mass media to tout the release of a new edition of his best-seller, Conquer The Crash.

Here is his November 4th appearance on CNBC:





Also, a two-part interview with Prechter occurred on Yahoo's TechTicker:

Part 1: Bear Market Rally Is Over, Stocks Headed For New Lows

Part 2: Wall Street Is Setting Investors Up for Another Hurting, Robert Prechter Warns

Crash Potential?

While the stock market is short-term oversold and ripe for a bounce, there is the potential for a crash somewhere down the line, even without world war three erupting.

In a Financial Times editorial, fellow doomsday economist Nouriel Roubini spells out in explicit detail how the Fed's efforts to reflate the economy have created but another huge asset bubble likely to pop in the near future:

So the combined effect of the Fed policy of a zero Fed funds rate, quantitative easing and massive purchase of long-term debt instruments is seemingly making the world safe – for now – for the mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged global asset bubbles.

......

But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.

Why will these carry trades unravel? First, the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring. Third, if US growth surprises on the upside in the third and fourth quarters, markets may start to expect a Fed tightening to come sooner, not later. Fourth, there could be a flight from risk prompted by fear of a double dip recession or geopolitical risks, such as a military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. As in 2008, when such a rise in risk aversion was associated with a sharp appreciation of the dollar, as investors sought the safety of US Treasuries, this renewed risk aversion would trigger a dollar rally at a time when huge short dollar positions will have to be closed.

This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.

As anticipated in this blog, the stock market appears to have topped out above 10,000 in association with a Spiral Calendar anniversary of the 1987 top before that year's crash.

The 1929-1987-2009 market analogy is continuing to play out suggesting the possibility of a major upset of mass mood into mid-December:





Again, the greatest concern is that any upcoming upset will take the form of war. As overviewed in my thesis and noted recently in this blog, with a reversal from the psychologically important 10,000 mark in the DJIA, one needs to be on the lookout for a historical shock, such as a conflict with Iran (and then Russia).

Here are charts showing why this is so:









The historical pattern above is so obvious that no further elaboration is necessary.

The bottom line is that what we are observing is history repeating itself in a blatant fashion. Man as a species thinks and behaves irrationally and is failing to learn from past mistakes. Hence, human history is doomed to repeat itself.

Only by correcting ourselves by truly believing in God, acknowledging we are creatures accountable to our Creator, and seeking to obey His will as demonstrated by the life of Jesus, can the insane manic-depressive cycles of human history be brought to an end.