"When the Spirit of Truth comes,
he will guide you into all truth;
for he will not speak on his own authority,
but whatever he hears he will speak,
and he will declare to you the things that are to come."
(John 16:13)
Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts
Without a doubt, the Shemitah year, which kicked off on Sept. 25, has begun with a blast of bad news.
Cahn predicted in “The Harbinger” that America would come under judgment in the wake of the 9/11 attacks because, rather than being humbled mystery_shemitahand repentant, the nation doubled down on abortions, pornography and the removal of prayer and all things Christian from the public square.
In the “Shemitah,” he reveals that judgment comes to a backslidden nation in accordance with a seven-year cycle that correlates with the Hebrew calendar. In Leviticus 25, God commanded the Israelites to observe a Sabbath year once every seven years in which they would let their land lie fallow, while in Deuteronomy 15 He instructed them to cancel debts in line with this same seven-year timetable.
Cahn explains that the seven-year cycles can manifest as blessings as long as a nation follows the will of God. But for those that started out under God only to later stray, the Shemitah can bring a series of ever harsher judgments, usually striking in the financial realm and spilling over into the political and military arenas.
“In The Mystery of the Shemitah – I show how the Shemitah has caused financial and economic collapse throughout modern times,” Cahn told WND. “And the phenomenon has been intensifying – with the last two Shemitahs manifesting the phenomenon with uncanny precision.”
The two previous Shemitah years occurred in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008.
Before the ultimate judgment comes, God often sends a series of warnings or “shakings” meant to get the attention of believers and nonbelievers alike.
The Shemitah year was also called the year of “release” in biblical times because the land was allowed to rest and the financial accounts were wiped clean once every seven years.
Only two weeks into the new Shemitah year of 2014-2015, the U.S. stock market has already shed hundreds of points.
The move in crude these past six months is now nothing short of astounding. At about $52 current prices (which will probably move in either direction significantly by the time this is posted) the collapse from the recent peak now equals only past, significant global recessions under the oil regime that began in the mid-1980’s.
Stocks dropped sharply into the close today with the DJIA falling 223 points:
Since the DJIA's reversal from the psychologically important 17000 mark in the wake of the (blood moon) lunar eclipse last Tuesday, the stock market has come down more than four percent. This may be the opening salvo of selling in the greatest "panic" in human history.
As highlighted in this blog many times over the years, there is a tendency for mass mood to collapse in the autumn. In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines
(Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change)
Percentage
Date Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987 -22.61%
October 28, 1929 -12.82%
October 29, 1929 -11.73%
November 6, 1929 -9.92%
December 18, 1899 -8.72%
August 12, 1932 -8.40%
March 14, 1907 -8.29%
October 26, 1987 -8.04%
October 15, 2008 -7.87%
July 21, 1933 -7.84%
October 18, 1937 -7.75%
December 1, 2008 -7.70%
October 9, 2008 -7.33%
February 1, 1917 -7.24%
October 27, 1997 -7.16%
October 5, 1932 -7.15%
September 17, 2001 -7.13%
September 24, 1931 -7.07%
July 20, 1933 -7.07%
September 29, 2008 -6.98%
More specifically, the tendency is for financial panics and waves of mass fear to develop after the full moon in the Hebrew month of Tishrei (this year this meant a lunar eclipse -it marks the beginning of the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot between Tishrei 15-22) and climax toward the end of the month and new moon. This autumnal part of the lunar cycle, which usually occurs in October on the Gregorian Calendar, has witnessed the following panics:
[Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.]
Could the historical pattern be repeating this October of 2014?
Of course, all of this must be poppycock because the geniuses in economics and finance departments at colleges around the world are still teaching that markets are efficient, there are no predictable patterns (like the Elliott Wave Principle is based upon) and the stock market follows a "Random Walk". Thus, it's perfectly OK for people to think and behave as selfish, hedonistic animals like "homo economicus" because, in the long-run, competitive market societies like America will gravitate toward "general equilibrium" (READ: "social harmony") and Pareto optimality (READ: maximum happiness for all). So go ahead and place your faith in Mammon (the "god" of "in god we trust" on American currency should be small-cap) and worship the bronze Charging Bull on Wall Street (our version of the Golden Calf), because great minds have put together an incredibly sophisticated. mathematically consistent theoretical system called the neoclassical synTHESIS that just about proves greed is good and laissez-faire capitalism is the way to manage this world!
We are all part of a social organism and unless we heed the Golden Rule of LOVE that God commands, in the long-run, a world driven by selfishness and greed will gravitate toward general disequilibrium of unprecedented historical scale, what one might call an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle peak, soon after which the system-as-whole will collapse upon itself or, more specifically, CRASH....most probably in October when the mood of our insane species typically breaks down.
Of course, who am I to tell you all about how the real world works? I'm up against the greatest minds in the world - esteemed professors, eminent scholars, the Who's Who scientific establishment ruling modern times - while I'm just some manic-depressive nutcase who's so crazy he thinks he might be Jesus Christ returned! I'm supposed to better know REALITY?! LOL!!!
Well....I do, because I bothered to actually take a look at it.
Let's all be thankful the reversal in the stock market from Dow 17000 thus far has been constrained to typical Wall Street insanity. As it is, the projection per the historical pattern is for a panic climax into early next week (Tishrei 25-28 is October 19-22 this year). I deeply hope and pray that, should this unfold, it's simply a '29-style financial panic and the inevitable onset of the next economic recession (well, it's rather obvious we'd be heading into the second Great Depression this time around). If the panic starts to take the form of a geopolitical crisis, i.e., WAR, then it could very well be that DEFCON 1 will be reached next week. In that case, all bets are off, and everyone might as well accept Jesus into their hearts, beg for God's mercy and head for the hills as quickly as possible...
And God said, "Let there be lights in the vault of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark sacred times, and days and years." [Genesis 1:14]
“There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.” [Luke 21:25-28]
This week, on October 7-8, there will be a total lunar eclipse.
In recent weeks or months, you might have caught Pastor John Hagee, Rabbi Mark Biltz and/or Rabbi Jonathan Cahn on television or elsewhere discussing how a "tetrad" (4 consecutive) of blood moons (total lunar eclipses) are occurring in 2014 and 2015 that will coincide with the Jewish holidays of Passover and Sukkot during the spring and autumn, respectively.
We are now approaching the second lunar eclipse in the tetrad series on October 8th next week.
According to the Hebrew calendar, this next eclipse is occurring at the beginning of a Jewish "Sabbatical year" called a Shemitah (the lunar-based Hebrew calendar effectively starts in September on the Gregorian calendar). According to biblical tradition, this year is supposed to be set aside by Jewish faithful for serving God and during it land must rest and crops not be planted. Hence, the harvest gathered in the autumn at the beginning of the Sabbatical year is extra important since it will be used for two years.
The lunar eclipse this week marks the beginning of Sukkot, the Jewish harvest festival. Sukkot runs seven day, i..e, from October 8th to 15th this year on the Gregorian calendar. On the Hebrew calendar this is from Tishrei 15 to Tishrei 22.
As explained in my Master's Thesis on "Manic-Depressive Man" and repeatedly highlighted in this blog, there is a seasonal tendency for "panics" to occur in mass mood during late-Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar which is usually October on the Gregorian calendar. Typically these waves of collective fear show up on Wall Street in the form of financial panics.
Incredibly, as discovered by Chris Carolan, author of the award-winning 1998 article written, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the same day on the Hebrew calendar, i.e., the 28th day of the 7th lunar month (Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar):
I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing an online Hebrew date converter. What I found is that the tendency is for mass panics to develop between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Jewish calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this annual time window, the following major "panics" took place:
Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.
In 2014, Tishrei 15-30 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on October 8-23 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, with the lunar eclipse this week, we are entering the period when panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into October 20-23 as the historical pattern suggests.
That a lunar eclipse could seemingly "trigger" a coming panic should come as no surprise to anyone who frequents this blog.
We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" with the lunar eclipse this week that will be followed by a solar eclipse on on October 23rd.
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
All in all, based upon seasonal patterns in mass mood swings, there is a danger the world will experience a mass panic (upset of collective beliefs and expectations) starting around the time of the lunar eclipse this week and climaxing into October 20-23.
What form might any approaching panic take?
The DJIA peaked out on July 3rd, closing above the psychologically important 17000 mark for the first time in history, and is now reversing course closing below 17K today:
Although I was a little early in calling the peak of Western Civilization in June, it is now starting to appear that the final top is in place. Immediately with this reversal at Dow 17000 there is news of war erupting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Last week, three kidnapped Israeli teens were found dead and Hamas started hitting southern Israel with rockets. Consequently, earlier today Israel initiated a major military campaign against Gaza, dubbed "Operation Protective Edge", and Hamas has responded with an ongoing, expanded missile barrage against southern Israel that has included strikes on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has called up 40,000 reservists for a possible ground incursion into Gaza in the face of the growing missile onslaught by Hamas.
As has been highlighted in this blog many, many times, reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in key stock indices like the DJIA are often followed by major geopolitical shocks.
Here's three notable historical examples I often cite. Between 1966 and 1982, the DJIA went up to the psychologically important "Magic 1000" barrier and reversed course multiple times. Each major reversal off Dow 1000 involved significant bear markets with the stock market falling 20%+ five times. Each of these bear markets involved all kinds of negative historical events and trends from the Vietnam War to oil shocks to Watergate. This included the major reversal in the autumn of 1973 associated with that year's Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War and the subsequent OPEC oil embargo which drove the DJIA down by 40%+ in a year's time and precipitated the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression up to that point.
Likewise, in the summer of 1990 the DJIA reversed from the psychologically important 3000 mark (reaching a closing all-time high that year of 2999.75 on July 16th and July 17th) and fell by 25% by October of that year. This trend reversal took the form of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, a significant oil-shock and the 1990 Gulf Crisis which pushed the economy into a recession.
A final profound example occurred in the autumn of 2001 when, just after the DJIA reversed below the psychologically important 10000 mark on September 6th of that year, Wall Street broke hard with the 9/11 terror attacks on the World Trade Center towers and Pentagon:
As for the current juncture, not only is the DJIA reversing from the 17000 milestone, the Dow Jones Composite, NYSE index and German DAX are turning down from the 6000, 11000 and 10000 marks, respectively:
Furthermore, this reversal likely comes in the wake of a historically important Grand Supercycle peak according to the Elliott Wave Principle. What I believe constitutes the peak of Western Civilization:
In the wake of this peak, we should expect the collapse of Western Civilization. In fact, the wave patterns that have unfolded indicate that what's most likely to occur is a rapid crash more so than an extended collapse.
What form could this crash take?
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the current conflict between Israel and Hamas is leading up to what I foresaw 20+ years ago in my apocalyptic vision: chemical SCUD missiles slamming into Israel followed by a global nuclear war.
IRAQ SAYS 'TERRORISTS' SEIZE CHEMICAL WEAPONS SITE
Jul. 8, 2014 5:43 PM EDT
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Iraq has informed the United Nations that the Islamic State extremist group has taken control of a vast former chemical weapons facility northwest of Baghdad where 2,500 chemical rockets filled with the deadly nerve agent sarin or their remnants were stored along with other chemical warfare agents.
Iraq's U.N. Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim said in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon circulated Tuesday that "terrorist" groups entered the Muthanna site June 11 and seized weapons and equipment from the protection force guarding the facility.
He singled out the capture of bunkers 13 and 41 in the sprawling complex, which according to a 2004 U.N. report also contained the toxic agent sodium cyanide, which is a precursor for the chemical warfare agent tabun, and artillery shells contaminated with mustard gas.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana
For regular leaders of my blog, you've seen from time to time that I reference my "Manic-Depressive Man" thesis and provide commentary drawn from the Elliott Wave Principle. We may now be at one of the most important historical turning points ever based upon my unique perspective.
ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE UPDATE
"Given the terminal nature of the entire wave from the 2009 low, there is a strong probability that the last all-time high in the Dow for years to come will register today. The extremely low volatility of recent months is likely to transition to the greatest volatility ever recorded for U.S. stocks. Our timing work suggests that wave c to the downside will be relentless and do its damage over a brief span of two years."
The Elliott Wave Principle was developed in the 1930's by Ralph N. Elliott, an accountant by profession, who was bedridden for long periods of time due to chronic illness and took that time to analyze stock price charts in the wake of the 1929 Great Crash to determine if there was any recurring patterns. From this, he formulated Elliott's "Wave Principle" that the stock market generally proceeds in a path of three steps forward with two steps back on recurring scales of magnitude that is depicted like this:
In the 1970's and 1980's, Elliott's Wave Principle was uncovered and popularized my market technician Robert Prechter who eventually started Elliott Wave International headquartered in Gainesville, GA, that has since become the world renown authority for analysis of global markets utilizing the theory.
I will not attempt here to reexplain the Wave Principle and its many rules and tenets but instead encourage any one interested in further learning to ElliottWave.com and Robert Prechter's advisory services for a thorough explanation of the theory and its current application to global markets. Robert Prechter has invested his life into developing and bringing to global light this most important social SCIENCE of mass human thought and behavior and you will do yourself a great disservice by failing to take advantage of an opportunity to learn more. (No....I'm not a paid shrill, but I am an admiring fan of Prechter's ingenious work.) For those with insufficient funds or interest, Wikipedia has an excellent overview of the Wave Principle.
What's critical is that, at the current juncture, the Elliott Wave Principle is signalling we are currently reaching the ultimate historical top....what is aptly described as the peak of Western Civilization:
In the context of this long-term topping process, we are now at or near the end of the rebound in mass mood and stock prices since the Spring 2009 low (see Prechter's quote above).
What does this mean?
That's the $100 trillion question I'd like to answer here now.
First off, let's consider the authoritative perspective of Elliott Wave International:
Above is the opening section of the latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast which was released Friday.
As you can see, the view is that the DJIA, which closed just below the psychologically important 17000 mark last week, is "TOPPING". Following this top, a drive in stock prices down to below the 400 mark on the DJIA (and that's really 400....not 4000) is anticipated according to the tenets of the Wave Principle.
What could cause such a massive collapse in the DJIA?
For the answer to that we first must consider what the DJIA represents. The DJIA is a market index derived from the equity share prices of 30 of the largest U.S. corporations. In this way, it is a price measurement that represents the earnings and well-being of the U.S. economy. A rising DJIA means rising stock prices in general and climbing earnings anticipations for big business, i.e., it implies rising collective confidence and optimism for American capitalism. Likewise, a falling DJIA implies an upset of collective confidence and growing pessimism for American capitalism.
Thus for the DJIA to fall from 17000 to below 400 in a matter of a couple of years from now, some sort of drastic upset of investor confidence in U.S. capitalism would need to occur. Where could such a historic upset come from?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” - Carl Sagan
An Apocalypse (Greek: Ἀποκάλυψις Apokálypsis; "lifting of the veil" or "revelation") is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted. In a rather common-sensical way the term is associated with an eschatological final battle, the Armageddon, and the idea of an end of the world due to out of time. This perceptions may better be related to the phrase apokalupsis eschaton, literally "revelation at [or of] the end of the æon, or age". In Christianity The Apocalypse of John is the Book of Revelation, the last book of the Bible. (Wikipedia)
On Friday, the DJIA fell 143 points closing just above the psychologically important 16000 mark:
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 54 points to just below the psychologically important 4000 mark:
As I have been pointing out for decades, when key stock market indexes like the DJIA reverse below key thousand marks, historical shocks tend to occur like Iraq's 1990 invasion of Iraq and 9/11:
Is a reversal from Dow 16000 and Nasdaq 4000 going to coincide with a historical shock?
While such collective mental and emotional instability is very "creative", it nonetheless means our species is a danger to itself and the world man inhabits. Such is the blessing and curse of the "global bipolar disorder". The human parallel can be found in the arts where artists afflicted with bipolar disorder creatively dominate:
In terms of creative/destructive manic-depressive mood swings afflicting the species of man, they appear to abide by a fractal pattern popularized by Robert Prechter called the Elliott Wave Principle. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the world is currently in the midst of the ultimate manic extreme, the peak of Western Civilization, which will be followed by a Grand Supercycle collapse of irrational collective beliefs and expectations:
In the context of a reversal below Dow 16000 and Nasdaq 4000 at the current juncture, an important factor to consider is seasonality and a "Puetz eclipse crash" window.
Per Steve Puetz, an eclipse "crash window" is in effect from 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse, but most often panics occur around the time of a lunar eclipse:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Thus, we are in a Puetz eclipse crash window from now until around April 18th.
Psychiatrists have been scratching their chins over this one for years. Counterintuitively, the arrival of spring and the long sunny days it ushers in, mark a staggering rise in suicide rates.
This week, mental health experts at the Priory group said that May is the peak month for suicides in Britain. "The increase can be dramatic, with up to 50% more successful suicides in some cases," says Chris Thompson, director of healthcare at the Priory group. In Britain, about 6,300 people take their own lives each year, 90% of whom are likely to have mental health problems.
The seasonal effect is seen all over the world, with the northern hemisphere witnessing a big rise in suicides in May and June and the southern hemisphere seeing a similar rise in November. While no one has a complete explanation as to why, the leading theory is that the increase is down to the effects of sunlight on our hormones.
On August 28th I posted a blog about how the world would soon be entering a dangerous period, i.e., the autumn, based upon the seasonality of mass mood swings. I'd like to revisit the information presented in that blog with some updated information that suggests the world is not out of the woods yet with regard to the potential for a global panic in the days and weeks ahead.
As I noted in August:
My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:
I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:
Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.
In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.
Could my August projection for an autumn panic been short by a lunar month? I hope and pray not, but there's reason to believe this is a possibility. As noted in the excerpt above, I utilize the Hebrew calendar in order to keep track of the lunar year instead of using the Gregorian calendar solar year (because autumn panics line up according to the lunar calendar). Thus, the "autumn" panic usually occurs into the 8th new moon of the year (the 7/27 - 7/28 "Dark Days" identified by Chris Carolan). As it turns out, this year the Hebrew calendar is running about a lunar month early, something that happens once every few thousand years:
First, the reader must understand that the Hebrew calendar is lunar as opposed to our societal Gregorian calendar that is solar.
Our solar calendar is 365.25 days in length. The lunar calendar is approximately 354 days in length. In order to almost even out the lunar and solar years, Jews add seven leap years in every 19 years. In each of those leap years, a month of 29 or 30 days is added to the calendar.
Unfortunately, the leap years do not totally equalize the calendars. There is a slow drift going on in the Jewish calendar. Let me quote BZ to explain the problem:
"235 lunar months add up to 6,939 days 16 hours 595 parts. (In Jewish calendar math, "parts" are the basic subdivisions of an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1,080 parts in an hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19 solar years (on average) are 6,939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That's about a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2 hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day every 231 years."
For those of you still reading, you can see that the lunar calendar is drifting. BZ explains:
"However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh Hashanah used to be Sept. 4 (which means Purim on Feb. 23, and so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time in 1766. The last Sept. 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be Sept. 6."
Given this rare occurrence of an early Jewish new year, what does this mean for the autumnal panic-prone period in 2013?
Well, as I explained in my August blog, the key time frame when "mass panics" typically occur is between the full moon in the middle of the 7th lunar month and new moon at month's end which, if pushed out by a month on the Hebrew calendar (to the month of Cheshvan), equates to October 19th to November 3rd on the Gregorian calendar in 2013. Of course, this is the period when the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed. Specifically, Chris Carolan's 7/27-7/28 "Dark Days" will align with October 31st-November 1st. (Note the fitting holiday of Halloween at the end of October signifying mass horror.)
The VIX seasonality chart is created from averaging together 23 years of VIX behavior. But since the VIX is at a different price level every year, using an average of the VIX’s actual values would inappropriately skew the result by over-weighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.
To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year. Then each day's values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.
The chart below shows VIX seasonality compared to this year’s VIX performance:
As can be seen above, the propensity for autumn panics is particularly revealed by a seasonal chart of the VIX "fear" index, and now the index is starting to pop up, potentially foreshadowing a major wave of mass anxiety to come in the days and weeks ahead.
As if this all weren't enough to send a shiver up one's spine, there's one more ingredient worth consideration.
We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" often mentioned in this blog. Though not very reliable given the frequency of solar eclipses, I think it's important to note that the current period does match the criteria given a lunar eclipse with the full moon on October 19th and solar eclipse with the new moon on November 3rd:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Given the lunar eclipse on October 19th, the Puetz window runs from October 13th through October 22nd, but again the crash window really runs to just before the subsequent new moon which is the solar eclipse on November 3rd this year.
THUS, A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD RUNNING FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INVOLVE ONE OF THE WORST "PANICS" IN HUMAN HISTORY.
This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.
Again, let's hope and pray I'm wrong as usual. History does tend to repeat itself.
The much-ballyhooed Hindenburg Omen has generated plenty of criticism over the years. But a deeper dive into the data this time around suggests there may be more to worry now about than many analysts are letting on to believe.
Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research and author of the SentimenTrader Daily Report, said there have been a cluster of five Hindenburg Omens over the past few weeks. As a student of investor psychology and sentiment trends, he’s worried about what potentially lies ahead.
“That’s a heavy concentration that we haven’t seen too many other times over a span of nearly 50 years,” Goepfert wrote in his Monday report. “And when we have, it hasn’t been good.”
Per Steve Puetz, the eclipse "crash window" is supposed to be from 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse, but most often panics occur around the time of a lunar eclipse two weeks after a solar eclipse:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Thus, we are in a Puetz eclipse crash window from now until around May 28th.
Psychiatrists have been scratching their chins over this one for years. Counterintuitively, the arrival of spring and the long sunny days it ushers in, mark a staggering rise in suicide rates.
This week, mental health experts at the Priory group said that May is the peak month for suicides in Britain. "The increase can be dramatic, with up to 50% more successful suicides in some cases," says Chris Thompson, director of healthcare at the Priory group. In Britain, about 6,300 people take their own lives each year, 90% of whom are likely to have mental health problems.
The seasonal effect is seen all over the world, with the northern hemisphere witnessing a big rise in suicides in May and June and the southern hemisphere seeing a similar rise in November. While no one has a complete explanation as to why, the leading theory is that the increase is down to the effects of sunlight on our hormones.
IDF Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz toured the Golan near the border with Syria Tuesday, and told lawmakers that tensions in the north could quickly devolve into war.
Other senior officials echoed his worries, with Home Front Defense Minister Gilad Erdan warning that it was only a matter of time before major Israeli cities started getting pounded by rockets.
I hope and pray otherwise, but one should be apprised of the current danger and be ready to evacuate or shelter-in-place as need be.
Please DOWNLOAD A BACKUP COPY of this blog (right click and save) from time to time for safe-keeping. The information revealed through here is so sensitive for those now in authority that I expect eventual state censorship.
"The plans for the resurrection of the USSR are well known to Putin and the present regime and are outlined in the documents of the UCP-CPSU and Communist Party of the Union [of Russia and Belarus]." - Oleg Shenin, Chair, (Restored) Communist Party of the Soviet Union, 2003
"Gentlemen, comrades, do not be concerned about all you hear about Glasnost and Perestroika and democracy in the coming years. They are primarily for outward consumption. There will be no significant internal changes in the Soviet Union, other than for cosmetic purposes. Our purpose is to disarm the Americans and let them fall asleep." - Mikhail Gorbachev, November 1987
"Communist ideology in its pure form is akin to Christianity. Its main ideas are the brotherhood of all peoples irrespective of their nationality, justice and equality, peace, and an end to all hostility between peoples." - Mikhail Gorbachev's 'Memoirs', 1996
"The socialist tradition....goes back to Jesus Christ, not (Karl) Marx." - Mikhail Gorbachev, USA Today, October 28th, 1996
"Jesus was the first socialist, the first to seek a better life for mankind." - Mikhail Gorbachev
"If we presume the coming transformation of the Communist Party into the Russian Orthodox Party of the Soviet Union, we would obtain truly the ideal state, one which would fulfill the historical destiny of the Russian people. It is a question of the Orthodoxization of the entire world." - Gennadii Shimanov (quoted in Alexander Yanov's The Russian Challenge)
"My feelings tell me that someday a Slavic Orthodox tsar shall take the socialist movement in hand and, with the blessing of the Church, set up a socialist form of life in place of the bourgeois one. And this Socialism will be a new and severe....form of slavery..." - Konstantin Leont'ev
"An empire of the Orthodox Balkan peoples together with the empire of Holy Russia - not the present marxist, un-Russian Russia, but Holy Orthodox Russia - can bring happiness to all mankind and realize that mystical millennial kingdom of peace on earth, which appeared in a vision on the island of Patmos to that glorious apostle and visionary, St. John the Evangelist. For that Millennium has never yet been made a reality in the history of the world, and what has been destined by God, must become a reality. Who will make it a reality if not those who up to the present day have been the most martyred and reviled, carved up and downtrodden, i.e., the Slavs and the other Orthodox Peoples?" - quote taken from "A Treasury of Serbian Orthodox Spirituality" written by Serbian Bishop Nikolai Velimirovich (1880-1956)
"A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic." - Josef Stalin
"It would not matter if 3/4ths of the human race perished; the important thing is that the remaining 1/4th be communist." - Vladimir Lenin
"Today's weapons make it possible to achieve strategic objectives very quickly. The very first nuclear attack on the enemy may inflict such immense casualties and produce such vast destruction that his economic, moral-political and military caabilities will collapse, making it impossible for him to continue to struggle, and presenting him with the fact of defeat." - Colonel M.P. Skirdo, quoted in Soviet Strategy For Nuclear War
