Mass Mood Seasonality Revisited: Crash Into Halloween?

On August 28th I posted a blog about how the world would soon be entering a dangerous period, i.e., the autumn, based upon the seasonality of mass mood swings. I'd like to revisit the information presented in that blog with some updated information that suggests the world is not out of the woods yet with regard to the potential for a global panic in the days and weeks ahead.

As I noted in August:

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.

Fortunately, September passed without incident and the crisis in Syria which climaxed that month dissipated without World War Three erupting.

Since that time, however, a new crisis has started to emerge that may portend a panic of the financial sort, i.e., the political impasse in Washington, D.C. and U.S. government shutdown. Something that could lead to a ratings downgrade of the U.S. and/or worse. In recent days, global concerns over the political wrangling in America has started impacting global financial markets sending the DJIA back below the psychologically important 15000 mark:

Could my August projection for an autumn panic been short by a lunar month? I hope and pray not, but there's reason to believe this is a possibility. As noted in the excerpt above, I utilize the Hebrew calendar in order to keep track of the lunar year instead of using the Gregorian calendar solar year (because autumn panics line up according to the lunar calendar). Thus, the "autumn" panic usually occurs into the 8th new moon of the year (the 7/27 - 7/28 "Dark Days" identified by Chris Carolan). As it turns out, this year the Hebrew calendar is running about a lunar month early, something that happens once every few thousand years:

First, the reader must understand that the Hebrew calendar is lunar as opposed to our societal Gregorian calendar that is solar.

Our solar calendar is 365.25 days in length. The lunar calendar is approximately 354 days in length. In order to almost even out the lunar and solar years, Jews add seven leap years in every 19 years. In each of those leap years, a month of 29 or 30 days is added to the calendar.

Unfortunately, the leap years do not totally equalize the calendars. There is a slow drift going on in the Jewish calendar. Let me quote BZ to explain the problem:

"235 lunar months add up to 6,939 days 16 hours 595 parts. (In Jewish calendar math, "parts" are the basic subdivisions of an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1,080 parts in an hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19 solar years (on average) are 6,939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That's about a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2 hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day every 231 years."

For those of you still reading, you can see that the lunar calendar is drifting. BZ explains:

"However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh Hashanah used to be Sept. 4 (which means Purim on Feb. 23, and so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time in 1766. The last Sept. 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be Sept. 6."

Given this rare occurrence of an early Jewish new year, what does this mean for the autumnal panic-prone period in 2013?

Well, as I explained in my August blog, the key time frame when "mass panics" typically occur is between the full moon in the middle of the 7th lunar month and new moon at month's end which, if pushed out by a month on the Hebrew calendar (to the month of Cheshvan), equates to October 19th to November 3rd on the Gregorian calendar in 2013. Of course, this is the period when the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed. Specifically, Chris Carolan's 7/27-7/28 "Dark Days" will align with October 31st-November 1st. (Note the fitting holiday of Halloween at the end of October signifying mass horror.)

Buttressing the case to be made that we are now entering a panic period is the behavior of the VIX index, which is a gauge of collective investor anxiety. The VIX has surged in recent days and, as it turns out, this seasonal movement of the "fear index" has been strongly recurrent in the autumn period ever since the measurement was invented:

The VIX seasonality chart is created from averaging together 23 years of VIX behavior. But since the VIX is at a different price level every year, using an average of the VIX’s actual values would inappropriately skew the result by over-weighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.

To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year. Then each day's values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.

The chart below shows VIX seasonality compared to this year’s VIX performance:

As can be seen above, the propensity for autumn panics is particularly revealed by a seasonal chart of the VIX "fear" index, and now the index is starting to pop up, potentially foreshadowing a major wave of mass anxiety to come in the days and weeks ahead.

As if this all weren't enough to send a shiver up one's spine, there's one more ingredient worth consideration.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" often mentioned in this blog. Though not very reliable given the frequency of solar eclipses, I think it's important to note that the current period does match the criteria given a lunar eclipse with the full moon on October 19th and solar eclipse with the new moon on November 3rd:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

So what about this year?

Given the lunar eclipse on October 19th, the Puetz window runs from October 13th through October 22nd, but again the crash window really runs to just before the subsequent new moon which is the solar eclipse on November 3rd this year.

THUS, A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD RUNNING FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INVOLVE ONE OF THE WORST "PANICS" IN HUMAN HISTORY. This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.



Again, let's hope and pray I'm wrong as usual. History does tend to repeat itself.

Dow 13K & The Historical *Affect* Of Psychological Barriers

The DJIA tested the psychologically important 13000 mark today and reversed course:



Meanwhile, psychologically significant thousand mark levels are also being approached in two key European bourses:

The UK FTSE is near the 6000 mark:



The German DAX is near the 7K mark:



There's also the Seoul KOSPI Composite reaching 2K, the Taiwan Weighted near 8K and the Singapore Strait Times index around 3K. (Notably, three countries highly vulnerable regarding China.)

Why is this relevant?

As overviewed in my Thesis and related Inefficient Market Hypothesis, challenging historical "shocks" that upset mass emotion often occur as the DJIA and other key stock indices reverse from psychologically significant round-number levels.

ALSO SEE:

Dow 12K & The Anomalous Motion Of The Planets

Thousand Mark Reversals In Major Stock Indices

What about this time?

Well....as I've long been warning, the next major reversal according to the Elliott Wave Principle is likely to be a literal Apocalypse Wave:





Now bear in mind the building tensions in the Middle East (a focal point of the East/West bipolar imbalance) and the special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel I 'foresaw' 21 years ago this month.



I think it is fitting that at what might be the final relative high today, which represents an historical extreme of irrational collective beliefs and expectations, Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum is being popularly ridiculed for a speech he made in which he warned that Satan was waging a war against America:

"This is not a political war at all, this is not a culture war at all, this is a spiritual war," Santorum said, according to a recording of the speech on the university's website. "And the father of lies has his sights on what you think the father of lies, Satan, would have his sights on. A good, decent, powerful, influential country, the United States of America." [CNN]

Well....he's right...



Truth is indestructible and ultimately triumphs since it is reality.

People may share lies and collectively believe falsehoods....even for centuries....but the truth is always still there.

It's a question of when the truth is uncovered, and this is what "Apocalypse" literally means: "An apocalypse is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted."

In this light, please understand that our collective insanity is deeply rooted in the fear of death, and this must be overcome for humanity to be saved IMHO:




Maybe this is why the "second coming" involves a profound historical example of reincarnation
upsetting to mass delusions about death in both science and religion.



So be it.

Given where 'organized science and religion' are taking the world, clearly some radical reorganization of the thoughts and feelings of man is in order.

I believe that's my prerogative.

As for why historical shocks erupt when the DJIA and other key stock indices around the world reach psychological barriers, I believe this corroborates the case for a holographic universe I've long thought to be correct:


[Read Michael Talbott's The Holographic Universe]

The only way that prophecy is possible is if our subjective realm is, in reality, a fiction relative to an 'Author' who knows the story from start to finish and opts to (have) foreshadow(ed) future chapters to characters within the Book (of Life). Thus, the entire story of the universe from beginning to end is a fractal-based distortion pattern etched on the three-dimensional surface we measure (by our senses) and thereby experience at each given moment as the four-dimensional space-time continuum (or something to that effect).

One noteworthy feature of a hologram is that if you break up the associated plate which generates this image, each piece of the plate will still recreate the whole image but with less resolution due to information loss. This is comparable to fractal patterns like the Elliott Wave where each part contains an image of the whole. Our universe is the same in nature as science is today discovering, thereby revealing how divine Revelation is possible.

"For the wisdom of this world is foolishness with God. For it is written, 'He catches the wise in their own craftiness'; and again, 'The Lord knows the thoughts of the wise, that they are futile.'" 1 Corinthians 3:19-20

Autumn Panic Update: Will Civilization Last Through October?

Here is an update to my August blog, The "Fall" Is Approaching, where I highlight the historical propensity for mass panics to develop in the autumn. This blog post is an extension of the insights expressed in my general thesis that man as a species is currently insane, i.e., suffering from a manic-depressive creative genius syndrome (it's a matter of efficient "creation" IMHO - related book). [For those immediately taken aback by my thesis, just consider how history is characterized by booms and busts, eras of prosperity and "feeling happy" like the Roaring Twenties followed by mass panics, financial busts and prolonged periods of economic contraction and "feeling sad" like the 1930s Great Depression. It should be straightforward to recognize the evident historical pattern of manic-depressive mass mood swings in human society.]

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OCTOBER PANICS

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

Also note that the 1907 Banker's Panic climaxed into late October, but the Hebrew calendar has this occurring in the first half of Cheshvan, which is usually November on the Gregorian calendar. This highlights that the use of the Hebrew calendar is not entirely accurate but provides a decent way of assessing where one is in the annual lunar calendar most years.

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SEPTEMBER PANICS

As an addendum to the above discovery, I'd like to note tonight that there is a secondary window for potential panics to consider in the 6th lunar month, which is usually equivalent to the month of September on the Gregorian calendar or the month of Elul on the Hebrew calendar.

In Chris Carolan's article, he notes that the Panic of 1873 erupted into the 27th and 28th day of the 6th lunar month in that year, which is around Elul 27 on the Hebrew calendar. If we apply the same logic that the maximum propensity for a mass panic to occur is between the full and new moon in the latter half of the 6th lunar month, then the relevant window on the Hebrew calendar is between Elul 15 and Elul 29 (Elul is a 29 day month). Using this time frame, we find the following historical panics of note:

26 Elul 5633 - 9/18/1873 - Jay Cooke Bank fails / Panic of 1873 triggered

17 Elul 5699 - 9/1/1939 - Germany invades Poland starting World War Two

23 Elul 5761 - 9/11/01 - 9/11 terror attacks / War on Terror begins

15 Elul 5768 - 9/15/08 - Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy / 2008 financial crisis kicks off

Note that in all these cases, the collective panic in the Elul 15-29 time frame ended up persisting through the 7th lunar month and beyond. The Panic of 1873 kicked-off what became known as the Long Depression. Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939 was the beginning of years of terrible war around the world. The 9/11 attacks set off the War on Terror that continues across the globe today. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was followed by a financial and economic collapse that persists to this day. Thus, while late-October, i.e., Tishrei 15-30, panics tend to be climactic, panics in the September window between Elul 15-29 on the Hebrew calendar are characteristically triggers for what proves to be extended waves of mass fear and depression.

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CURRENT JUNCTURE


The Harvest Moon rises over Healdsburg, California Monday night

As for 2011, we just passed the Harvest full moon Monday night and are now into the Elul 15-30 window which is equivalent to September 14 to 28 this year. Thus, we are now in a window, in terms of both monthly and annual seasonality, when man as a species is prone to suffer acute panic events. The October window, which is more apt to see a panic climax, runs from October 13 to 28 on the Gregorian calendar (October 23-24 is the equivalent to the 27th and 28th days of the 7th lunar month that marked the "black days" of the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes).

Obviously, the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and potential for a Greek default and/or the failure of a major European bank like BNP Paribas could act as a Lehman-style trigger for a global financial panic and the next leg down in what many are already calling a new Great Depression (the primary concern of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International):



Quite frankly, if the financial system and economy were all we had to worry about in the days and weeks ahead, I personally would be somewhat relieved. Economic strife is difficult but survivable. The real problem here is that I've foreseen World War Three.

As dealt with in my August 15th blog, the Elliott Wave Principle is indicating the wave down in the stock market and mass mood that started with a major planetary alignment in May should entail a 90%+ drop in stock prices in the coming months, what I've dubbed the "Apocalypse Wave":



While a second Great Depression could account for such a deflationary collapse in mass mood, it is difficult to fathom this is all that's coming our way according to the Wave Principle.

Keep in mind that the last Supercycle bear market from 1929 to 1942 involved the Great Depression with the first wave down and then World War Two on the second wave down of the A-B-C patterned breakdown. Indeed, as overviewed in my August blog, market patterns indicate we are now entering the second major wave down when major wars typically erupt.

In this regard, recent developments concerning the strategic isolation of Israel should be setting off alarm bells around the world. Clearly the ingredients are coming together for a new major war in the Middle East, this time likely involving weapons of mass destruction:



I believe such a conflict, should it come, is what I foresaw 20 years ago and is what the Bible predicts in prophecies like found in Ezekiel 38-39 and the Book of Revelation.

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MAYAN CALENDAR ENDS 10/28/2011

As an aside, one might note that the whole December 21st, 2012 doomsayers crowd is likely using the wrong date in terms of when the Mayan calendar ends. The correct date, according to many experts, is October 28, 2011:





Given that the end of October also entails the highest potential for a panic climax, one can't help but wonder whether or not civilization is about to self-destruct.

Quite frankly, I'll be most thankful this Thanksgiving if I can share it with family and friends in a society still intact. (BTW....in light of Harold Camping's latest take for the 'End of the World' on October 21st, I'm somewhat hopeful. I can't imagine he'd ever be right. Of course, what's really underway is the 'End of the Age' which is significantly different than what Christians have in mind with the 'rapture' and all such self-important nonsense.)

God have mercy on us...

The "Fall" Is Approaching

ALSO SEE SEPTEMBER UPDATE: Will Civilization Last Through October?

This blog is mainly a repost of one from last September regarding the seasonality of mass mood swings. It highlights what I believe constitutes profound historical corroboration of my primary thesis regarding the manic-depressive insanity of man as a species.

Given that the Elliott Wave now unfolding is likely of Primary third degree to the downside, what I've been warning could prove to be the "Apocalypse Wave", the clearly-defined historical pattern for mass panic and stock market crashes to occur during the Fall season requires special attention at this time IMHO.



While we're now in a Puetz eclipse crash window that proved relevant around the August 13th full moon, the potentially more important pattern has to do with the nuances of the lunar (monthly) and solar (annual) circadian rhythms during the autumnal season.

In my thesis I present compelling evidence that man as a species is literally insane, i.e., suffering from a collective form of manic-depressive creative genius....what I've dubbed the "Global Bipolar Disorder".



Man's mental and emotional instability has been developing into a full-blown psychosis in recent years such that there is the distinct possibility of a suicide attempt in the form of a nuclear third world war (as I believe I've supernaturally foreseen) at some point in the near-future. In this context, we are now entering a period of utmost concern. Here's specifically why I believe this to be the case.

Financial panics during the autumn are fairly common due to the seasonality of our species' repeating, severe mass mood swings. As is widely recognized, the stock market has a tendency to fall during the Fall. In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines (Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change) Percentage Date Decline __________________________________________ October 19, 1987 -22.61% October 28, 1929 -12.82% October 29, 1929 -11.73% November 6, 1929 -9.92% December 18, 1899 -8.72% August 12, 1932 -8.40% March 14, 1907 -8.29% October 26, 1987 -8.04% October 15, 2008 -7.87% July 21, 1933 -7.84% October 18, 1937 -7.75% December 1, 2008 -7.70% October 9, 2008 -7.33% February 1, 1917 -7.24% October 27, 1997 -7.16% October 5, 1932 -7.15% September 17, 2001 -7.13% September 24, 1931 -7.07% July 20, 1933 -7.07% September 29, 2008 -6.98%

More specifically, as discovered by market analyst Chris Carolan, the tendency is for panics to climax into around the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar, which is equivalent to Tishrei 26 on the lunar-based Hebrew calendar:





Note that during the autumn financial panic in 2008, when the current economic crisis kicked off, the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month:





This phenomenon can be more accurately ascertained by looking up the dates of key panic climaxes (including maximum DEFCON nuclear alerts in October of 1962 and 1973) using a lunar-based Hebrew calendar converter:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

Wed, 24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

Mon, 19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

Fri, 13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

Tue, 27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

Fri, 24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


As can be seen above, the tendency is for mass panics to climax in the second half of Tishrei and into Tishrei 25-28 specifically. Typically the acute phase of mass panic begins after the full moon in the 7th lunar month, i.e., around Tishrei 15.

What about this year?

The full moon occurs on October 12th and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 23rd and October 26th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias.

While historically autumnal panics have taken the form of financial crises, one might note above that the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, the two points in history when the world came closest to an all-out East-West conflict as measured by NORAD's DEFCON nuclear alert level, occurred in the context of the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics. In 1962 the highest DEFCON status was reached on October 26th, or Tishrei 28. In 1973, the highest DEFCON nuclear alert was reached on October 24th, or Tishrei 28 as well in that year. (Note that the third highest DEFCON alert occurred with 9/11 and that the subsequent collective panic associated with the 2001 Anthrax attacks and the world's first significant WMD/biological terrorism also occurred into the late-Tishrei Hebrew calendar period.)

Some might not see the connection between financial crises and geopolitical crises, but it is clear that one exists. Consider, for instance, how reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA have correlated with geopolitical "shocks".

One of the most clear-cut examples of this occurred with the October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War when, upon retesting the "Magic 1000" mark, the DJIA turned down in connection with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. What followed was an OPEC oil embargo against the West and a severe contraction in the global economy precipitating a 40%+ decline in stock prices in the ensuing months:



On July 16th and 17th of 1990, the DJIA closed at 2999.75 two days in a row, not closing above the psychologically important 3000 mark until the following year. Just as the DJIA reached the 3000 mark, Saddam Hussein gave a speech threatening Kuwait on what was then Iraq's President Day honoring the date of the coup that brought the former Iraqi dictator to power. That weekend, Iraq started massing troops on Kuwait triggering a 5% reversal in the DJIA from the 3000 mark. Then, on August 2nd, Iraq invaded Kuwait causing the Persian Gulf Crisis, a spike in oil prices and a 20%+ drop in the DJIA by October of that year. Thus, the reversal in mass emotion associated with failing at Dow 3000 in the summer of 1990 manifested as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the beginning of what would be a prolonged struggle with Saddam Hussein.



In early-September of 2001, the DJIA reversed below Dow 10,000....THEN 9/11 occurred precipitating a 20% drop in the stock market:



The 'psychological barrier phenomenon' associated with thousand marks in the DJIA is profound corroborating evidence that deterministic cyclical swings in mass mood, i.e., Elliott Waves, are some sort of hidden engine behind human history:



Now consider that my apocalyptic vision associated with my correspondence with Robert Prechter began with seeing a special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel.

In terms of the Elliott Wave Principle, we are at a juncture conducive to the start of a major war.

Watch starting around 12 minutes into the documentary above from the Socionomics Institute, History's Hidden Engine.

Robert Prechter: "The hypothesis is that as people's mood improves they feel less like fighting. The opposite happens in a bear market as people get angrier and more fearful they begin to feel more like fighting or defending themselves or attacking someone else. Wars take time to mobilize, so they don't generally erupt early in bear markets. They tend to erupt very late in bear markets. In fact, it's usually not on the first decline of a bear market, but in the second decline when war tends to breakout."

Peter Kendall: "The size of a war is almost always related to the size of the bear market that creates it."

While the historical price patterns now unfolding imply a historic market crash into October, this does not necessarily mean war. However, the comments from Robert Prechter and Peter Kendall from the documentary History's Hidden Engine noted above tell us that wars tend to erupt on the second major wave down in bear markets and that the scale of the wars ought to be on par with the scale of the Elliott Wave cycle involved. In the current case, we are looking at the second wave down, a third wave of Primary degree, in a Grand Supercycle bear market. The comparable wave down in the Supercycle-degree downswing from 1929 to 1942 was the 1937 to 1942 bear market that involved the outbreak of the second world war and domination of the world by the Axis powers. Thus, with the "Apocalypse Wave" collapse that has likely started in the wake of the May planetary alignment peak in mass mood and stock prices, there is the possibility of an outbreak of World War Three. It's a matter of Elliott Wave scale:



Hopefully I'm a deluded fool and this is all nonsense (or at least the primary concern is a financial crisis not war). Nevertheless, I believe a reasonable assessment of the available information is that, given man's somewhat predictable patterns of emotional and mental instability, there is the distinct possibility our species will suffer an acute mass panic and war, possibly involving a global nuclear holocaust, over the next couple of months.

I deeply pray I'm wrong, but it's fairly obvious that man as a species is literally demon-possessed, and, from what I can tell, I'm here to rid man of his demons. This is not a role I want, but clearly someone has to do it or there'd be no hope at all.

God have mercy on us all...

Is this the Apocalypse Wave & what does that mean?

In the wake of the May planetary alignment, mass mood has turned down significantly in terms of the DJIA reversing from the 13K mark and dropping below the lower trendline that has supported the ascension in stock prices since the March 2009 low point. Now we may be on the cusp of breaking below Dow 12K just as we are entering a Puetz eclipse crash window in association with the 6/15 total lunar eclipse.



Tis all a matter of creative and destructive waves of collective consciousness IMHO:



Here's an interesting thought on the "apocalypse" (found at Robert Hitt's AstroEcon):

J. J. Collins, as a part of the Society of Biblical Literature's 1970s commission to systematically analyze apocalyptic literature of both Jewish and Christian origins, cites the resulting collaborative definition:

An apocalypse is a genre of revelatory literature with a narrative framework in which a revelation is mediated by an otherworldly being to a human recipient, disclosing a transcendent reality which is both temporal, insofar as it envisages eschatological salvation, and spatial, insofar as it involves another, supernatural world.

Edge Of A Cliff?

There's an interesting video Robert Prechter forwarded to my attention called "Edge Of A Cliff" that forecasts a major reversal in mass mood at the end of May:



This was followed by another video indicating the East Asia, e.g., Korea, would be the source of some sort of international crisis:



Whatever the source of any coming "historical shock" (I'm wondering if an Israeli strike on Iran is imminent), I believe this fledgling MoodCompass organization may be on to something.

As I have been highlighting, this month there's been a major planetary alignment that will be capped by a solar eclipse on June 1st. I've long maintained that key historical turning points correlate with significant planetary alignments after which eclipses may act as "triggers":












Meanwhile, as overviewed in the epilogue to my Thesis, we should be nearing a reversal into what I've dubbed the "Apocalypse Wave" in mass mood:



In this context, one should note how the DJIA is on the verge of breaking below the lower trendline that has acted as support in stock prices since the March 2009 low:



Should such a breakdown occur decisively, then this could very well be associated with going over the cliff into the Apocalypse Wave of man's insanity.

Lunatic, Liar or Lord?

My central thesis is that man as a species is certifiably insane at the current juncture, suffering from collective emotional and mental instability and associated extraordinary popular delusions, thus constituting a danger to himself and the world he inhabits.

[Think of how President Barack Obama, just after releasing a laughably fake 'birth certificate' and whose political career literally started in the living room of Communist domestic terrorists William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn (never mind Ayers likely wrote Obama's 'autobiography'!), is now considered champion in the U.S.-led War On Terror for bringing down Osama bin Laden....a figurehead who had little to do with 9/11 in the first place. In other words, someone that likely symbolizes an ultimate national security failure is popularly believed to be a profound national security success. I'm afraid this situation reflects almost perfect mass self-delusion before a catastrophic upset of misled popular beliefs and expectations, i.e., the "Apocalypse Wave".]

Man's collective insanity plays out historically as the ups and downs in mass mood known as bull and bear markets on Wall Street, business cycles and, most importantly, fractal "Elliott Wave" patterns of human progress and regress. Instability generated by man's egoism which goes against the reality of our essential oneness IMHO.

While most think it would make sense to constrain the implications of cycles in mass mood and thought to financial and economic developments, what's key to understand is that ALL of human history unfolds in the context of these historical swings. A fine example of that occurred with the last significant cyclical reversal in early March when the DJIA reversed below the psychologically important 12000 mark and this took the form of the major earthquake and tsunami in Japan and subsequent nuclear crisis.

This latest "coincidence", or more aptly "historical correlation", was further corroboration of the theory I've been positing that thought is all that matter's (matter is) rather than vice versa (idealism over materialism, i.e., the "conscious" whole is greater than the sum of the parts). More so, meaning is primary and what is "written" by the Creator (universal consciousness within which we are co-creators) to convey meaning to us (and through us) is secondary. In this sense, our universe is effectively like a 'never-ending story' where the essential meaning is the guiding force for what is expressed through temporal bits and pieces of material creation and destruction, e.g., Elliott Wave fractals of human progress and regress, biological growth and decay, life and death, etc.

What's being written in God's creation is temporal, but the meaning, the spirit of HIStory, is eternal and ultimately the source of all that is. Human beings are creatures perfectly designed to conceive and receive meaning, God is the universal meaning-maximizer and, as with all great stories, there come concluding chapters when the whole point of what's been written is made clear for all who are reading. In this sense, it is rather telling that the final chapter of The Bible (meaning 'The Book') is called 'Revelation':

An Apocalypse (Greek: apokálypsis; "lifting of the veil" or "revelation") is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted. The Apocalypse of John is the Book of Revelation, the last book of the New Testament. (Wikipedia)

But what meaning is to be realized via the "Apocalypse"?

Well....it seems rather key that this final chapter of the Bible is mainly prophetic, i.e., it describes future catastrophic world events foreseen some 2000 years ago by John of Patmos.

Why is prophecy key?

It's really quite simple. Only the author of a story can know events in future chapters before they "unfold", i.e., before they are "read" by others. More so, we are as creatures effectively characters in the Creation being authored by our Creator. The Author of our universe stands outside of time and space and knows the full story we experience as unfolding HIStory from beginning to end. Thus, the fulfillment of prophecy in the Bible's last chapter is PARTICULARLY REVEALING IN THAT THE EXISTENCE OF GOD THE AUTHOR, AND TRUE AUTHORITY OVER HIS-STORY, IS ESTABLISHED since only the sovereign, omniscient Author of the story could have foreshadowed to characters in the book within which we dwell momentous events that would transpire some two millennium later in human history. ("Scientifically", this means that the four-dimensional holographic illusion of our universe from beginning to end is fractally-embedded on the 3-dimensional surface of space we measure and "experience" over time as unfolding "reality".)

But even so, what is the point?

The Author, by revealing His existence, brings an end to the insanity of man's ongoing worldly struggle to write his own story. Indeed, it is most telling that the catastrophic events foretold in the Bible's Book of Revelation are ultimately being caused by man trying to be the sovereign author in human history, which he is not - only God is, and that is key to comprehending the true meaning of what's being written.

It's all about the humble counterpoint of God's love and truth versus man's dangerous self-delusion of universal self-importance:

Get it?

That this all seems upside down to everyone around me is by definition. Truly man is smart enough to understand this no matter how subjective he may have been made....and that's the difference between the temporal, subjective fictions of man versus the eternal, objective reality of God.

So who do you choose to believe?



Am I lunatic, liar or Lord?

(NOTE: It is only by taking this seemingly insane self-sacrificial path that I can save man from himself. Tis part of the job.)

Tis the season...

Tomorrow is the autumnal equinox and the official onset of the "Fall" season.

In my thesis I present compelling evidence that man as a species is literally insane, i.e., suffering from a collective form of manic-depressive creative genius....what I've dubbed the "Global Bipolar Disorder".



Man's mental and emotional instability has been developing into a full-blown psychosis in recent years such that there is the distinct possibility of a suicide attempt in the form of a nuclear third world war (as I believe I've supernaturally foreseen) at some point in the near-future. In this context, we are now entering a two week period of utmost concern. Here's specifically why I believe this to be the case.

Financial panics during the autumn are fairly common due to the seasonality of our species' repeating, severe mass mood swings. As is widely recognized, the stock market has a tendency to fall during the Fall. In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines (Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change) Percentage Date Decline __________________________________________ October 19, 1987 -22.61% October 28, 1929 -12.82% October 29, 1929 -11.73% November 6, 1929 -9.92% December 18, 1899 -8.72% August 12, 1932 -8.40% March 14, 1907 -8.29% October 26, 1987 -8.04% October 15, 2008 -7.87% July 21, 1933 -7.84% October 18, 1937 -7.75% December 1, 2008 -7.70% October 9, 2008 -7.33% February 1, 1917 -7.24% October 27, 1997 -7.16% October 5, 1932 -7.15% September 17, 2001 -7.13% September 24, 1931 -7.07% July 20, 1933 -7.07% September 29, 2008 -6.98%

More specifically, as discovered by market analyst Chris Carolan, the tendency is for panics to climax into around the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar, which is equivalent to Tishrei 26 on the lunar-based Hebrew calendar:





Note that during the autumn financial panic in 2008, when the current economic crisis kicked off, the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month:





This phenomenon can be more accurately ascertained by looking up the dates of key panic climaxes (including maximum DEFCON nuclear alerts in October of 1962 and 1973) using a lunar-based Hebrew calendar converter:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

Wed, 24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

Mon, 19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

Fri, 13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

Tue, 28 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 27th of Tishrei, 5758

Fri, 24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


As can be seen above, the tendency is for mass panics to climax in the second half of Tishrei and into Tishrei 25-28 specifically. Typically the acute phase of mass panic begins after the full moon in the 7th lunar month, i.e., around Tishrei 15.

What about this year?

The full moon occurs on September 23rd and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 3rd and October 6th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias. Notably, this full moon will coincide with an alignment of Uranus, Jupiter, the Earth, the Sun and Saturn, all squared by Pluto, with the September 22nd Autumnal equinox (keep in mind the summer "Cardinal Climax" as well):



While historically autumnal panics have taken the form of financial crises, one might note above that the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, the two points in history when the world came closest to an all-out East-West conflict as measured by NORAD's DEFCON nuclear alert level, occurred in the context of the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics. In 1962 the highest DEFCON status was reached on October 26th, or Tishrei 28. In 1973, the highest DEFCON nuclear alert was reached on October 24th, or Tishrei 28 as well in that year. (Tishrei 28 is October 6th this year.)

Some might not see the connection between financial crises and geopolitical crises, but it is clear that one exists. Consider, for instance, how reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA have correlated with geopolitical "shocks".

One of the most clear-cut examples of this occurred with the October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War when, upon retesting the "Magic 1000" mark, the DJIA turned down in connection with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. What followed was an OPEC oil embargo against the West and a severe contraction in the global economy precipitating a 40%+ decline in stock prices in the ensuing months:



On July 16th and 17th of 1990, the DJIA closed at 2999.75 two days in a row, not closing above the psychologically important 3000 mark until the following year. Just as the DJIA reached the 3000 mark, Saddam Hussein gave a speech threatening Kuwait on what was then Iraq's President Day honoring the date of the coup that brought the former Iraqi dictator to power. That weekend, Iraq started massing troops on Kuwait triggering a 5% reversal in the DJIA from the 3000 mark. Then, on August 2nd, Iraq invaded Kuwait causing the Persian Gulf Crisis, a spike in oil prices and a 20%+ drop in the DJIA by October of that year. Thus, the reversal in mass emotion associated with failing at Dow 3000 in the summer of 1990 manifested as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the beginning of what would be a prolonged struggle with Saddam Hussein.



In early-September of 2001, the DJIA reversed below Dow 10,000....THEN 9/11 occurred precipitating a 20% drop in the stock market:



The 'psychological barrier phenomenon' associated with thousand marks in the DJIA is profound corroborating evidence that deterministic cyclical swings in mass mood, i.e., Elliott Waves, are some sort of hidden engine behind human history:



As I've been warning in this blog since the stock market reversed in late-April, we are now likely in the midst of what I've dubbed the "Apocalypse Wave" according to the Elliott Wave Principle.


What does this mean?

Hopefully nothing.

However, a reasonable assessment of the available information is that, given man's somewhat predictable patterns of emotional and mental instability, there is the distinct possibility our species will suffer an acute mass panic, possibly involving global nuclear war, over the next couple of weeks.

I deeply pray I'm wrong, but it's fairly obvious that man as a species is literally demon-possessed, and, from what I can tell, I'm here to rid man of his demons. This is not a role I want, but clearly someone has to do it or there'd be no hope at all.

God have mercy on us all...

Robert Prechter on Tech Ticker