Stock Market Crash Alert

Stocks dropped sharply into the close today with the DJIA falling 223 points:

Since the DJIA's reversal from the psychologically important 17000 mark in the wake of the (blood moon) lunar eclipse last Tuesday, the stock market has come down more than four percent.  This may be the opening salvo of selling in the greatest "panic" in human history.

As highlighted in this blog many times over the years, there is a tendency for mass mood to collapse in the autumn.  In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines (Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change) Percentage Date Decline __________________________________________ October 19, 1987 -22.61% October 28, 1929 -12.82% October 29, 1929 -11.73% November 6, 1929 -9.92% December 18, 1899 -8.72% August 12, 1932 -8.40% March 14, 1907 -8.29% October 26, 1987 -8.04% October 15, 2008 -7.87% July 21, 1933 -7.84% October 18, 1937 -7.75% December 1, 2008 -7.70% October 9, 2008 -7.33% February 1, 1917 -7.24% October 27, 1997 -7.16% October 5, 1932 -7.15% September 17, 2001 -7.13% September 24, 1931 -7.07% July 20, 1933 -7.07% September 29, 2008 -6.98%

More specifically, the tendency is for financial panics and waves of mass fear to develop after the full moon in the Hebrew month of Tishrei (this year this meant a lunar eclipse -it marks the beginning of the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot between Tishrei 15-22) and climax toward the end of the month and new moon.  This autumnal part of the lunar cycle, which usually occurs in October on the Gregorian Calendar, has witnessed the following panics:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash (+earthquake) = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis (max VIX) = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

[Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.]

Could the historical pattern be repeating this October of 2014?

Of course, all of this must be poppycock because the geniuses in economics and finance departments at colleges around the world are still teaching that markets are efficient, there are no predictable patterns (like the Elliott Wave Principle is based upon) and the stock market follows a "Random Walk".  Thus, it's perfectly OK for people to think and behave as selfish, hedonistic animals like "homo economicus" because, in the long-run, competitive market societies like America will gravitate toward "general equilibrium" (READ: "social harmony") and Pareto optimality (READ: maximum happiness for all).  So go ahead and place your faith in Mammon (the "god" of "in god we trust" on American currency should be small-cap) and worship the bronze Charging Bull on Wall Street (our version of the Golden Calf), because great minds have put together an incredibly sophisticated. mathematically consistent theoretical system called the neoclassical synTHESIS that just about proves greed is good and laissez-faire capitalism is the way to manage this world!

Well....I have an opposing THESIS.

For a decade I was schooled in this utter tripe and now it's my turn to school the Ayn Rand-loving herd that pontificates this FALSE RELIGION to the masses to reinforce the current manic peak of collective bipolar insanity we're in the midst of (yes Professor Langlois, I ended that sentence with a preposition!).

We are all part of a social organism and unless we heed the Golden Rule of LOVE that God commands, in the long-run, a world driven by selfishness and greed will gravitate toward general disequilibrium of unprecedented historical scale, what one might call an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle peak, soon after which the system-as-whole will collapse upon itself or, more specifically, CRASH....most probably in October when the mood of our insane species typically breaks down.

Of course, who am I to tell you all about how the real world works?  I'm up against the greatest minds in the world - esteemed professors, eminent scholars,  the Who's Who scientific establishment ruling modern times - while I'm just some manic-depressive nutcase who's so crazy he thinks he might be Jesus Christ returned!  I'm supposed to better know REALITY?! LOL!!!

Well....I do, because I bothered to actually take a look at it.

Let's all be thankful the reversal in the stock market from Dow 17000 thus far has been constrained to typical Wall Street insanity.  As it is, the projection per the historical pattern is for a panic climax into early next week (Tishrei 25-28 is October 19-22 this year).  I deeply hope and pray that, should this unfold, it's simply a '29-style financial panic and the inevitable onset of the next economic recession (well, it's rather obvious we'd be heading into the second Great Depression this time around).  If the panic starts to take the form of a geopolitical crisis, i.e., WAR, then it could very well be that DEFCON 1 will be reached next week.  In that case, all bets are off, and everyone might as well accept Jesus into their hearts, beg for God's mercy and head for the hills as quickly as possible...

EOM

This Week's Lunar Eclipse, Autumn Panics & God's Harvest

And God said, "Let there be lights in the vault of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark sacred times, and days and years." [Genesis 1:14]

“There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.” [Luke 21:25-28] 

This week, on October 7-8, there will be a total lunar eclipse.

Does this eclipse portend the crash of Western civilization? There's compelling reason to think so.

In recent weeks or months, you might have caught Pastor John Hagee, Rabbi Mark Biltz and/or Rabbi Jonathan Cahn on television or elsewhere discussing how a "tetrad" (4 consecutive) of blood moons (total lunar eclipses) are occurring in 2014 and 2015 that will coincide with the Jewish holidays of Passover and Sukkot during the spring and autumn, respectively.

We are now approaching the second lunar eclipse in the tetrad series on October 8th next week.



According to the Hebrew calendar, this next eclipse is occurring at the beginning of a Jewish "Sabbatical year" called a Shemitah (the lunar-based Hebrew calendar effectively starts in September on the Gregorian calendar).  According to biblical tradition, this year is supposed to be set aside by Jewish faithful for serving God and during it land must rest and crops not be planted.  Hence, the harvest gathered in the autumn at the beginning of the Sabbatical year is extra important since it will be used for two years.

The lunar eclipse this week marks the beginning of Sukkot, the Jewish harvest festival. Sukkot runs seven day, i..e, from October 8th to 15th this year on the Gregorian calendar.  On the Hebrew calendar this is from Tishrei 15 to Tishrei 22.

As explained in my Master's Thesis on "Manic-Depressive Man" and repeatedly highlighted in this blog, there is a seasonal tendency for "panics" to occur in mass mood during late-Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar which is usually October on the Gregorian calendar. Typically these waves of collective fear show up on Wall Street in the form of financial panics.

Incredibly, as discovered by Chris Carolan, author of the award-winning 1998 article written, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the same day on the Hebrew calendar, i.e., the 28th day of the 7th lunar month (Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar):





I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing an online Hebrew date converter. What I found is that the tendency is for mass panics to develop between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Jewish calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this annual time window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2014, Tishrei 15-30 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on October 8-23 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, with the lunar eclipse this week, we are entering the period when panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into October 20-23 as the historical pattern suggests.

That a lunar eclipse could seemingly "trigger" a coming panic should come as no surprise to anyone who frequents this blog.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" with the lunar eclipse this week that will be followed by a solar eclipse on on October 23rd.

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

All in all, based upon seasonal patterns in mass mood swings, there is a danger the world will experience a mass panic (upset of collective beliefs and expectations) starting around the time of the lunar eclipse this week and climaxing into October 20-23.

What form might any approaching panic take?

This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.

ALSO SEE:

Is The Greatest Turning Point In Human History Near-At-Hand?

Dow 17000 & The Peak of Western Civilization?

Note that the lunar eclipses in 2014 parallel those in 32AD when Christ might have been crucified (although April 3rd, 33AD looks like a better candidate):

In 2014, the Hebrew calendar lines up with the Gregorian calendar in 32AD the same way as well.

Leave in the spring and return in the fall maybe?

[WORK PROCEEDING. STAY TUNED.] 

Mass Mood Seasonality Revisited: Crash Into Halloween?

On August 28th I posted a blog about how the world would soon be entering a dangerous period, i.e., the autumn, based upon the seasonality of mass mood swings. I'd like to revisit the information presented in that blog with some updated information that suggests the world is not out of the woods yet with regard to the potential for a global panic in the days and weeks ahead.

As I noted in August:

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.

Fortunately, September passed without incident and the crisis in Syria which climaxed that month dissipated without World War Three erupting.

Since that time, however, a new crisis has started to emerge that may portend a panic of the financial sort, i.e., the political impasse in Washington, D.C. and U.S. government shutdown. Something that could lead to a ratings downgrade of the U.S. and/or worse. In recent days, global concerns over the political wrangling in America has started impacting global financial markets sending the DJIA back below the psychologically important 15000 mark:

Could my August projection for an autumn panic been short by a lunar month? I hope and pray not, but there's reason to believe this is a possibility. As noted in the excerpt above, I utilize the Hebrew calendar in order to keep track of the lunar year instead of using the Gregorian calendar solar year (because autumn panics line up according to the lunar calendar). Thus, the "autumn" panic usually occurs into the 8th new moon of the year (the 7/27 - 7/28 "Dark Days" identified by Chris Carolan). As it turns out, this year the Hebrew calendar is running about a lunar month early, something that happens once every few thousand years:

First, the reader must understand that the Hebrew calendar is lunar as opposed to our societal Gregorian calendar that is solar.

Our solar calendar is 365.25 days in length. The lunar calendar is approximately 354 days in length. In order to almost even out the lunar and solar years, Jews add seven leap years in every 19 years. In each of those leap years, a month of 29 or 30 days is added to the calendar.

Unfortunately, the leap years do not totally equalize the calendars. There is a slow drift going on in the Jewish calendar. Let me quote BZ to explain the problem:

"235 lunar months add up to 6,939 days 16 hours 595 parts. (In Jewish calendar math, "parts" are the basic subdivisions of an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1,080 parts in an hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19 solar years (on average) are 6,939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That's about a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2 hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day every 231 years."

For those of you still reading, you can see that the lunar calendar is drifting. BZ explains:

"However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh Hashanah used to be Sept. 4 (which means Purim on Feb. 23, and so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time in 1766. The last Sept. 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be Sept. 6."

Given this rare occurrence of an early Jewish new year, what does this mean for the autumnal panic-prone period in 2013?

Well, as I explained in my August blog, the key time frame when "mass panics" typically occur is between the full moon in the middle of the 7th lunar month and new moon at month's end which, if pushed out by a month on the Hebrew calendar (to the month of Cheshvan), equates to October 19th to November 3rd on the Gregorian calendar in 2013. Of course, this is the period when the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed. Specifically, Chris Carolan's 7/27-7/28 "Dark Days" will align with October 31st-November 1st. (Note the fitting holiday of Halloween at the end of October signifying mass horror.)

Buttressing the case to be made that we are now entering a panic period is the behavior of the VIX index, which is a gauge of collective investor anxiety. The VIX has surged in recent days and, as it turns out, this seasonal movement of the "fear index" has been strongly recurrent in the autumn period ever since the measurement was invented:

The VIX seasonality chart is created from averaging together 23 years of VIX behavior. But since the VIX is at a different price level every year, using an average of the VIX’s actual values would inappropriately skew the result by over-weighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.

To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year. Then each day's values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.

The chart below shows VIX seasonality compared to this year’s VIX performance:

As can be seen above, the propensity for autumn panics is particularly revealed by a seasonal chart of the VIX "fear" index, and now the index is starting to pop up, potentially foreshadowing a major wave of mass anxiety to come in the days and weeks ahead.

As if this all weren't enough to send a shiver up one's spine, there's one more ingredient worth consideration.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" often mentioned in this blog. Though not very reliable given the frequency of solar eclipses, I think it's important to note that the current period does match the criteria given a lunar eclipse with the full moon on October 19th and solar eclipse with the new moon on November 3rd:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

So what about this year?

Given the lunar eclipse on October 19th, the Puetz window runs from October 13th through October 22nd, but again the crash window really runs to just before the subsequent new moon which is the solar eclipse on November 3rd this year.

THUS, A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD RUNNING FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INVOLVE ONE OF THE WORST "PANICS" IN HUMAN HISTORY. This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.



Again, let's hope and pray I'm wrong as usual. History does tend to repeat itself.

Autumn Panic Update: Will Civilization Last Through October?

Here is an update to my August blog, The "Fall" Is Approaching, where I highlight the historical propensity for mass panics to develop in the autumn. This blog post is an extension of the insights expressed in my general thesis that man as a species is currently insane, i.e., suffering from a manic-depressive creative genius syndrome (it's a matter of efficient "creation" IMHO - related book). [For those immediately taken aback by my thesis, just consider how history is characterized by booms and busts, eras of prosperity and "feeling happy" like the Roaring Twenties followed by mass panics, financial busts and prolonged periods of economic contraction and "feeling sad" like the 1930s Great Depression. It should be straightforward to recognize the evident historical pattern of manic-depressive mass mood swings in human society.]

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OCTOBER PANICS

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

Also note that the 1907 Banker's Panic climaxed into late October, but the Hebrew calendar has this occurring in the first half of Cheshvan, which is usually November on the Gregorian calendar. This highlights that the use of the Hebrew calendar is not entirely accurate but provides a decent way of assessing where one is in the annual lunar calendar most years.

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SEPTEMBER PANICS

As an addendum to the above discovery, I'd like to note tonight that there is a secondary window for potential panics to consider in the 6th lunar month, which is usually equivalent to the month of September on the Gregorian calendar or the month of Elul on the Hebrew calendar.

In Chris Carolan's article, he notes that the Panic of 1873 erupted into the 27th and 28th day of the 6th lunar month in that year, which is around Elul 27 on the Hebrew calendar. If we apply the same logic that the maximum propensity for a mass panic to occur is between the full and new moon in the latter half of the 6th lunar month, then the relevant window on the Hebrew calendar is between Elul 15 and Elul 29 (Elul is a 29 day month). Using this time frame, we find the following historical panics of note:

26 Elul 5633 - 9/18/1873 - Jay Cooke Bank fails / Panic of 1873 triggered

17 Elul 5699 - 9/1/1939 - Germany invades Poland starting World War Two

23 Elul 5761 - 9/11/01 - 9/11 terror attacks / War on Terror begins

15 Elul 5768 - 9/15/08 - Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy / 2008 financial crisis kicks off

Note that in all these cases, the collective panic in the Elul 15-29 time frame ended up persisting through the 7th lunar month and beyond. The Panic of 1873 kicked-off what became known as the Long Depression. Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939 was the beginning of years of terrible war around the world. The 9/11 attacks set off the War on Terror that continues across the globe today. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was followed by a financial and economic collapse that persists to this day. Thus, while late-October, i.e., Tishrei 15-30, panics tend to be climactic, panics in the September window between Elul 15-29 on the Hebrew calendar are characteristically triggers for what proves to be extended waves of mass fear and depression.

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CURRENT JUNCTURE


The Harvest Moon rises over Healdsburg, California Monday night

As for 2011, we just passed the Harvest full moon Monday night and are now into the Elul 15-30 window which is equivalent to September 14 to 28 this year. Thus, we are now in a window, in terms of both monthly and annual seasonality, when man as a species is prone to suffer acute panic events. The October window, which is more apt to see a panic climax, runs from October 13 to 28 on the Gregorian calendar (October 23-24 is the equivalent to the 27th and 28th days of the 7th lunar month that marked the "black days" of the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes).

Obviously, the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and potential for a Greek default and/or the failure of a major European bank like BNP Paribas could act as a Lehman-style trigger for a global financial panic and the next leg down in what many are already calling a new Great Depression (the primary concern of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International):



Quite frankly, if the financial system and economy were all we had to worry about in the days and weeks ahead, I personally would be somewhat relieved. Economic strife is difficult but survivable. The real problem here is that I've foreseen World War Three.

As dealt with in my August 15th blog, the Elliott Wave Principle is indicating the wave down in the stock market and mass mood that started with a major planetary alignment in May should entail a 90%+ drop in stock prices in the coming months, what I've dubbed the "Apocalypse Wave":



While a second Great Depression could account for such a deflationary collapse in mass mood, it is difficult to fathom this is all that's coming our way according to the Wave Principle.

Keep in mind that the last Supercycle bear market from 1929 to 1942 involved the Great Depression with the first wave down and then World War Two on the second wave down of the A-B-C patterned breakdown. Indeed, as overviewed in my August blog, market patterns indicate we are now entering the second major wave down when major wars typically erupt.

In this regard, recent developments concerning the strategic isolation of Israel should be setting off alarm bells around the world. Clearly the ingredients are coming together for a new major war in the Middle East, this time likely involving weapons of mass destruction:



I believe such a conflict, should it come, is what I foresaw 20 years ago and is what the Bible predicts in prophecies like found in Ezekiel 38-39 and the Book of Revelation.

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MAYAN CALENDAR ENDS 10/28/2011

As an aside, one might note that the whole December 21st, 2012 doomsayers crowd is likely using the wrong date in terms of when the Mayan calendar ends. The correct date, according to many experts, is October 28, 2011:





Given that the end of October also entails the highest potential for a panic climax, one can't help but wonder whether or not civilization is about to self-destruct.

Quite frankly, I'll be most thankful this Thanksgiving if I can share it with family and friends in a society still intact. (BTW....in light of Harold Camping's latest take for the 'End of the World' on October 21st, I'm somewhat hopeful. I can't imagine he'd ever be right. Of course, what's really underway is the 'End of the Age' which is significantly different than what Christians have in mind with the 'rapture' and all such self-important nonsense.)

God have mercy on us...

WARNING: Crash of Western Civilization may lie dead ahead...

A rather clear cyclical picture has developed with regard to wave patterns in mass mood and astroharmonics that strongly suggests the end of Western Civilization as-we-know-it will occur between now and October.

World stock markets are starting to rollover and the DJIA might have just turned down into wave-3 of Primary wave-3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market according to the Elliott Wave count.



In fact, today Robert Prechter put out a special interim report highlighting his view that we just reached the key turning point that's been anticipated for weeks at Elliott Wave International:


***SEE ROBERT PRECHTER INTERVIEW ON BLOOMBERG***



Accordingly, a rapid 90%+ plunge in the stock market might unfold from here:



It appears the new moon today may be the tipping point in mass mood between euphoria and dysphoria in the wake of the "Cardinal Climax" astroharmonic extreme Arch Crawford has been warning the world about this summer:



This turning point may prove comparable to the August new moon peak in mass mood after the Harmonic Convergence in 1987 just before the historic crash into October 19th of that year. If a parallel cyclical pattern is unfolding here, then the brunt of the 'Apocalypse Wave', i.e., the crash of Western Civilization, could occur between now and the October 7th new moon this year, i.e., during the next two lunar cycles.

The seasonal pattern for mass panics to develop during the Autumn has been well identified:





In the historic 1987 crash the stock market and associated mass mood peaked around the time of the August new moon and then collapsed into just before the October new moon, i.e., into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month, which this year is October 4th. (Also, as I noted in my thesis, the closest the world ever came to an East/West nuclear war was into this time frame on the lunar calendar during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Yom-Kippur Arab-Israeli War.)

Importantly, Chris Carolan, who identified the 'Autumn panic calendar phenomenon', years ago identified October 2010 as a likely point for a low in mass mood based upon the "Spiral Calendar" he developed:



Thus, in the wake of a possible "Cardinal Climax" August new moon peak in mass mood, there's the possibility of a '29/'87 style crash into October. This time around, however, the 'panic' should be of "Grand Supercycle" scale which means that it is apt to be many times more potent than these prior breakdowns in mass e-motion (energy in motion).

Obviously, this is where the threat of man's destructive mood taking the form of global war looms large. Given this possibility, we are now entering a period where people need to seriously consider and start planning to "bug-out" from modern civilization because it might not be around much longer.

Then I heard another voice from heaven say:
"Come out of her, my people,
so that you will not share in her sins,
so that you will not receive any of her plagues;
for her sins are piled up to heaven,
and God has remembered her crimes."
[Revelation 18:4-5]

Meanwhile: Russia Ready to Launch Iranian Nuclear Power Plant

A Puetz eclipse crash window is in effect...

In the wake of the January 15th solar eclipse top in mass mood, a sharp reversal in the stock market has ensued:



As overviewed in my blog at "The Turning Point", the next wave down in the Grand Supercycle bear market is likely to be apocalyptic, something I may have foreseen. As projected by Robert Prechter in his January Elliott Wave Theorist, a 90%+ drop in stock prices should unfold in the months ahead:



The initial breakdown has already started with the DJIA plunging around five percent last week in reaction to President Obama picking a fight against the financial Ponzi scheme Wall Street has been engaged in for so very long.

Now, as indicated by Chris Carolan, a "point of recognition" may occur. In this context, note that we have just entered a Puetz eclipse crash window:

Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000.

Puetz was not saying that so-called "Puetz windows" always lead to crashes, but that if a crash is going to occur, a Puetz window would be the likely time frame in which it would happen. Puetz windows tend to occur every year or two, while crashes are rare events. (SOURCE)

He....concludes that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia (SOURCE).

The first full moon in the wake of the January 15th solar eclipse that marked the peak in mass mood will occur on January 30th. Thus, a Puetz eclipse crash window is in effect from January 25th to February 2nd during which there may be "rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia".

As for the evident lunacy of man, this simply reflects how cycles of mass human e-motion (energy in motion) are related to the motion of the universe around us. This is akin to the breathing of the Creator. To disbelieve in God and Creation is to not believe in life, consciousness and your very own existence IMHO. Undoing such extraordinary popular delusions is a crucial part of the "correction" now underway. There is relevant truth to the ancient adage, "As Above, So Below", regardless of the self-important lies most people choose to believe in the modern age.

Who Authors Human History?

I believe we may now be entering a very important juncture in human history.

The DJIA recently reversed from the psychologically important 10,000 mark:



This may have been, or will soon be, the peak of an Elliott Wave Primary wave-two in a Grand Superycle bear market:



Mid-October will see a significant cluster of Spiral Calendar anniversaries that suggests some sort of extreme in mass emotion lies dead ahead:



You can add to that chart above that October 16th is a significant F25 Spiral Calendar anniversary of the August 1987 top before that year's crash. The Spiral Calendar, derived from lunar cycles and Fibonacci-based periodicity, pinpoints extremes of mass emotion based upon the timing of past extremes of mass emotion.

While Chris Carolan has been looking for a top into October 9th, it's possible the stock market and mass mood already topped and there will be a mass panic into that window of time.

Note that the week of October 11-17 will involve the "Dark Days" of autumn identified by Carolan as the most likely point during the year for panic climaxes to occur:





Note that last year the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, also climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month during last year's financial crisis:





This phenomenon can be more accurately ascertained by looking up the dates of key panic climaxes (including maximum DEFCON nuclear alerts in October of 1962 and 1973) using a lunar-based Hebrew calendar converter:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

23 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5723

Wed, 24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

Mon, 19 October 1987 = 1987 Stock Market Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

Tue, 28 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 27th of Tishrei, 5758

Fri, 24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Tue, 13 October 2009 = 25th of Tishrei, 5770

This year the week of October 11-17, which is equivalent to Tishrei 23-29, is the typical period for a panic extreme, so we are now nearing the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias. Again....this may take the form of global war.