Saturday, July 03, 2010

The Apocalypse Wave has begun... (NOT!)

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In late-April I posted a blog, "Has The Apocalypse Wave Begun?", that warned as follows:

If, indeed, the Elliott Wave Primary Wave 2 peak has just been reached in the Grand Supercycle bear market and Primary Wave 3 down, the "Apocalypse Wave", is next, what does this mean? Well, just consider the following chart presented in Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist January investment letter projecting the stock market's course over the next year or so:

That is not a misprint. The Elliott Wave Principle suggests a 90%+ drop in stock prices, to Dow 1000 or lower, lies ahead.

Since that post the stock market has dramatically reversed.

This week, in the wake of the 6/26 lunar eclipse, the DJIA broke below the psychologically important 10,000 mark and, along with the Dow Transports, broke to new lows in the current wave down. According to the Elliott Wave Principle and Dow Theory, this confirms that mass mood is in the context of Primary wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market. In other words, the "Apocalypse Wave" is almost certainly now underway.

Here are some charts that show where we stand from Elliott Wave International (where subscribers have access to regular, in-depth analysis to track the unfolding wave patterns on a day-to-day basis):

As I've been noting in this blog, there is some sort of connection between astroharmonics and Elliott Wave patterns in mass "e-motion" (energy in motion). Right now, we are in the wake of the lunar eclipse conjunct Pluto and approaching the "Av 1" total solar eclipse on July 11th. With the Puetz eclipse crash window the DJIA dropped almost 10 percent. While the "window" closed this week three days after the lunar eclipse, that can be misleading. For example, in 1987, following a lunar eclipse on October 7th, the stock market crashed over 13 days into just before the new moon when the bottom was reached. A similar pattern along with the lunar cycle occurred with the 1929 and 1997 financial panics. Thus, even though the stock market is deeply oversold and ripe for a bounce here, the potential for the bottom to fall out remains, especially given how full-fledged crashes usually occur in the context of deeply oversold conditions. If, indeed, we are in the midst of an Elliott Wave Minor wave-3 during Primary wave-3 down, then much lower lows likely lie ahead in the near-term. However, the potential for a crash does seem limited given that seasonally this is not the typical time of the year for straight-up financial panics which most often take place during the "Fall".

The possibility remains that the form negative, destructive mass e-motion (energy in motion) takes could be a geopolitical shock, i.e., war. While the potentially explosive situations in the Mideast and on the Korean Peninsula appear to have simmered down, the possibility of an unexpected, historic upset must be deemed very high in the context of the current wave patterns and astroharmonics, particularly given "Kremlin Astrology".

UPDATE - Just after writing this blog I was checking charts at Yahoo Finance and saw the following:

Is this a portent of some sort?

This would normally seems absurdly improbable, but what is notable is how the current situation is parallel to right before 9/11. Just before the terrorist attacks in September 2001, the DJIA broke below the psychologically important 10,000 mark and there was a "Death Cross" when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. The exact same sort of market pattern is unfolding now:



Adsense said...

ill admit the lunar eclipse has meaning . yet this was not a puetz crash window . the set up by puets
is simple , solar eclipse first
then first full moon lunar eclipse followining that solar eclipse the downtrend or crash begins and then you look for a low 3 days before to 6 days after the full moon which is 6 weeks following the solar eclipse . your paramters are so wrong it is laughable . the puetz window simply does not and connot even exist this year due to the fact that we are seeing full moon lunar exclipses coming first and the solar exclipse second .
lastly stand alone solar eclipses are stronger then lunar eclipses .
this would make the case for the
solar eclipse to be somewhat bullish following july 11th 2010
yet the coming full moon following that solar exclipse could reverse the market and send it lower .
either way there is NO PUETZ WINDOW
could you please learn before you claim to know ?
thank you

J. Adams said...

From Peter Eliades:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

J. Adams said...

I have a table with the crashes Puetz used in his analysis, which btw includes the '87 crash that occurred into the new moon after the lunar eclipse and therefore went past 3 days after the lunar eclipse. Email me if you want a copy.

As for why I think your view is incorrect, note that the "1 in 127,000 odds" (see above) mentioned in assessing that the phenomenon is not per chance is based upon .23 raised to the 8th power, where 8 is the number of occasions the phenomenon has been observed. This calculation is derived from the average number of days per year that 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. While in the eight cases studied the most common pattern was for a crash to be triggered with a lunar eclipse/full moon after a solar eclipse, this is NOT an essential condition for a Puetz crash window.

Where did you get your information from?

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