Thursday, September 25, 2008

Dow 11,000 & The Crash?

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The DJIA bounced back above 11,000 today closing just above the psychologically important level. I thought that we'd get more of a countertrend rally before a full-scale panic would take hold given the attempt by authorities to keep the financial system afloat with a $700 billion bailout. However, it looks like we might fail right here.

Tonight, the proposed bailout plan ran into serious political trouble, and Washington Mutual, America's largest thrift, was taken over by the FDIC for resale to JP Morgan....the largest bank failure in U.S. history. This bad news might be the straw that breaks the back of the global financial system that's been teetering on the edge of the abyss since last week's news of the failure of Lehman Brothers, the takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and the $85 billion bailout of AIG, the world's largest insurance company. The collapse of America's global financial empire over the past year is now entering an acute phase of panic and chaos.

Given tonight's financial 'historical shocks', Asian stock markets are starting to selloff and U.S. stock futures have turned sharply lower. The possibility of a Black Friday and/or Black Monday is rising.....a pattern that would be consistent with Chris Carolan's discovery of financial panics climaxing just before the new moon of the 7th lunar month and/or the 8th lunar month. The new moon of the 7th lunar month occurs on Monday September 29th and the new moon of the 8th lunar month occurs on Tuesday October 28th.

However, I would not discount the possibility that the U.S. stock market will continue to rebound from it's still oversold condition for the next couple of weeks and the focus of concern for a panic should be in the second half of October.

I deeply pray that this phase of the crash of Western Civilization will be limited to financial and economic affairs, but I will reiterate here my warning for the potential of global war. I believe the window of greatest concern for war in the immediate future will be between the October 14th full moon and the October 28th new moon, as specified in my September 11th crash alert.

If there are historical developments suggestive of global war that erupt in the near-future, e.g., a major conflict breaks out in the Middle East like I supernaturally foresaw in 1991, then people need to assume that a collective suicide attempt in the form of global nuclear war is a likelihood this autumn and take precautionary measures accordingly.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Terror Attack In Pakistan

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I have been busy warning the world about the potential for a 'Grand Supercycle crash' this Autumn.

Now there is news of a huge terrorist bombing of a Marriott hotel frequented by Westerners in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Clearly, in recent days a mass panic started to develop in global financial markets. This week U.S. stocks fell 10% Monday through Wednesday after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and AIG had to be bailed out. Then the market climbed back the same amount on Thursday and Friday on news of a government bailout of the entire financial system.

What's important is to not get lost in the news details attributed to the swings in mass mood. As Elliott Wave analysis has long established, the underlying wave patterns in collective feelings are deterministic even though we experience history as seemingly probabilistic particular events. Again, this is the wave-particle duality of quantum physics on the human level.

What started this week may have been the leading edge of international anxiety and fear. As any one familiar with my work should realize, I've long maintained that 'mass panic' can take the form of historical shocks like 9/11, Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, etc. It is therefore conceivable that the terror attack in Pakistan this morning reflects that the developing wave of mass fear is starting to take the form of negative historical events. If so, and this is truly the Grand Supercycle crash, then I'm afraid history is about to get very ugly indeed. But fear not....for God is with us and this world we experience is simply a temporal fiction. The truth is that we are eternal beings.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Is The Panic Over?

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Yesterday, the DJIA hit a low below 10,500 and then reversed sharply higher closing above the psychologically important 11,000 mark. Currently market futures are indicating another 200 point rise at the open for a total gain of around 800 Dow points in a few trading hours. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Transports bounced back to close above the 5,000 mark. Notably, the Transports have yet to break below the July low in the index around 4,500.

Several measures of fear in the market have recently spiked to relative historical extremes. This, mixed with the Transports failing to confirm the current downtrend in the market, suggests that a significant bottom might have been reached and a sustained rally could be underway for weeks or even months to come. Such a conclusion would be the norm for technical analysis, except this might not be a normal occasion.

According to my current Elliott Wave count, the market should still be in the midst of an intermediate third wave down following a Grand Supercycle top a year ago:

Breaking below the psychologically important 11,000 mark signified the beginning of an acute panic in global markets that should constitute entering the Grand Supercycle crash. If this count is correct, then the current market bounce should be short-lived and this panic will soon become far more pronounced and severe.

On the other hand, my Elliott Wave count might be incorrect, in which case the panic may have already run its course and a new uptrend in mass mood is beginning.

The deciding factor here might be the Dow Transports. If there is a further breakdown in stock prices and the DJTA falls below its July low at 4500, then this would confirm a major bear market is underway. If, on the other hand, the Transports break to a new all-time high above 5500, then a significant, prolonged resumption of collective mania is likely occurring.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Has The Grand Supercycle Crash Begun?

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A historic weekend has passed that witnessed a tectonic shift on Wall Street. Lehman Brothers has gone bankrupt, Merrill prevent its own failure....has been bought by Bank of America for ~$50 billion and AIG, the nation's largest insurer, is planning to sell off parts of its business in a scramble to raise capital before it too sinks. Of the five investment banks on Wall Street last year, only two now remain: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, all seminal features on Wall Street, are gone.

Global markets are now in a fit of fear as the financial future of America seems dubious. Asian and European stock bources are down sharply, around three percent on average, as are futures on U.S. stock indices. As the catastrophic implications of Lehman's counterparty risk become clear, there's a chance that the worst financial panic in human history will occur as some quadrillion dollars in higly-unregulated derivatives cause a global meltdown.

Is the Grand Supercycle Crash beginning that I've long been warning about?

It is possible. If so, there are important implications to the timing.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle of stock price movements, a Grand Supercycle top occurred last October at Dow 14,000. Since that time, the DJIA suffered an intermediate wave-(1) into the collapse of Bear Stearns in March, a wave(2) rebound into May and then the decisive wave-(3) down....the potential crash underway. Being a fractal pattern, the intermediate third wave down also consists of the five-wave Elliott Wave pattern that started with a minor wave-1 to Dow 11,000 in July and then a wave-2 bounce into August since which wave-3 of wave-(3) apparently started. A decisive drop in the DJIA below the psychologically important 11,000 mark will confirm this wave count.

Thus, we are apparently now at the point where there is the highest likelihood for a crash and, given the top last October was likely of Grand Supercycle scale, any approaching crash should be of like proportion. As I've been warning, this likely implies the crash of Western Civilization is at hand.

Notably, today is a full moon that comes six weeks after the August 1st total solar eclipse that marked the start of the Georgian crisis. Market analyst Steve Puetz discovered that there is a connection between eclipses and financial panics. As Peter Eliades, author of the Stock Market Cycles investment letter points out regarding Puetz' discovery: "a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia." Thus, the full moon today might be a trigger for mass panic. If so, then the further discovery of Chris Carolan regarding Autumn panics becomes relevant.

Chris Carolan discovered that the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month in those respective lunar years.

He notes that other market panics have likewise occurred into this specific point on the lunar calendar or into the 28th day of the 6th lunar month. We are currently in the 6th lunar month of which the 28th day is September 26th. This means that a global panic, starting with the current full moon, might climax into September 26th. The next window for a mass panic to unfold would be from around the time of the October full moon on 10/14 to the 28th day of the 7th lunar month which is 10/25. Conceivably, therefore, we could be in the midst of a worldwide panic until late-October. As I have been warning about for more than 17 years, this "Grand Supercycle Crash" could ultimately take the form of global war.

The implications of what the world is experiencing are profound.

Elliott waves in stock price movements and the seasonality of collective panics, shaped by solar and lunar cycles, reflects seemingly deterministic patterns in human behavior. Man's nature, in other words, is predictably insane to a certain degree. This is an important point since world history is apparently shaped by these patterns of human behavior.

The bottom line is that the species of man is literally insane and a danger to itself and the world it inhabits. As long as human behavior is driven by selfishness rather than agape, I'm afraid history will continue to repeat itself in a predictably insane manner. I believe the only cure for mankind can come from accepting The Truth. We must all deny our selfish nature and turn to God, lest our species end up destroying itself.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

The Rise of the Antichrist

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In the video below, Russian 'Tsar' Vladimir Putin, former KGB chief, accepts the "Icon Of Vladimir", that "depicts the Holy Trinity", from Patriarch Alexius II, a known KGB agent, in a ceremony to mark the occasion of the reunification of the Russian Orthodox Church. As overviewed in my work, there is reason to believe Russia did away with Communism in order to replace this false ideological front with another one, Orthodox Christianity. Russian totalitarianism has thus metamorphisized not into liberal demoracy but rather into a conservative theocracy as forewarned about in Alexander Yanov's book "The Russian Challenge" (1987). What's worse, the Kremlin is planning to establish its version of the 'kingdom of god' not just over the Slavic world, but over the ENTIRE WORLD, through brute military domination, i.e., via a nuclear third world war. After the dust settles from the approaching apocalyptic conflict, the Kremlin hopes to coronate its leader "tsar of tsars", i.e., the second coming of Jesus Christ. The reality, however, is that the tyrant rising to power in the East is a conterfeit christ, i.e., the Antichrist.

Also see: Holy War - Russia
"The coming of the lawless one by the activity of Satan will be with all power and with pretended signs and wonders, and with all wicked deception for those who are to perish, because they refused to love the truth and so be saved. Therefore God sends upon them a strong delusion, to make them believe what is false, so that all may be condemned who did not believe the truth but had pleasure in unrighteousness." [2 Thessalonians 2:9-12]

Russia's Mission

The Russian Idea proceeded....from the belief that the contemporary world was suffering from a global spiritual crisis 'carrying humankind headlong toward catastrophe' (in the words of a present day prophet). It pointed to the inability of the secularized, materialistic and cosmopolitan West to come to grips with this crisis, whose historical source lay in the secular Enlightenment: in the West's rejection of religion as the spiritual basis of politics and in its inability to realize that not the individual but the nation is the foundation of the world order conceived by God; that 'humankind is quantified by nations'.

The Russian Idea pointed to the providential role of Orthodoxy, as uniquely capable of pulling back the world from the brink of the abyss, and to Russia as the instrument of this great mission. While the Russian Idea rejected the 'government's interference in the moral life of the people' (the police state), it also denounced the 'people's interference in state power' (democracy). To both of these it opposed the 'principle of AUTHORITARIAN power'. The state, it taught, must be unlimited because 'only under unlimited monarchial power can the people separate the government from themselves and free themselves to concentrate on moral-social life, on the drive for spiritual freedom'.

The Russian idea did not acknowledge the central postulate of Western political thought concerning the separation of powers (as the institutional embodiment of the neutralization of vice by vice). Instead, it advocated the principle of separation of functions between temporal and spiritual powers: the state guards the country against external foes and the Orthodox church settles the nation's internal conflicts....It cherished the ideal of the nation cum family, requiring neither parliaments, political parties, nor separation of powers. Like the family, the nation would have no need of legal guarnatees or institutional limitations on state's power and its focus should not be the rights, but rather the obligations of its members. The nation's conflicts, according to the Russian Idea, must be reconciled by spiritual, rather than constitutional, authority.

The ideal of the nation as family presupposed the need for salvation from the sinful influences of the 'street' (the West) and, consequently, from a spiritual rebirth and a moral revolution. In the course of this Russia would return 'home' to its pure rural roots, to the tsarist Rus'...

(Excerpt from Yanov's The Russian Challenge, pp.24-25)

"Today the Soviet system can no longer seriously strive toward the spectre of Communism - but at the same time it cannot yet abandon the grandeur of its tasks, for otherwise it would have to answer for fruitless sacrifices which are truly innumerable. But in what then can the Soviet system find its justification? Only in the consciousness that it was unconsciously in the past, as it is now quite consciously, God's instrument for constructing a new Christian world. It has no other justification, and this is . . . a genuine and great justification. By adopting it, our state will discover in itself a truly inexhaustable source of Truth, spiritual energy and strength, which has never before existed in history . . . The old pagan world has now finally outlived its era . . . In order not to perish with it we must build a new civilization - but is Western society, whose foundations have been destroyed, really capable of this? Only the Soviet sytem, having adopted Russian Orthodoxy . . . is capable of beginning THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD." (Passage written by Russian nationalist G.M. Shimanov quoted in Yanov's The Russian Challenge, p.236)

"If we presume the coming transformation of the Communist Party into the Russian Orthodox Party of the Soviet Union, we would obtain truly the ideal state, one which would fulfill the historical destiny of the Russian people. It is a question of the Orthodoxization of the entire world." (Gennadii Shimanov)

"My feelings tell me that someday a Slavic Orthodox tsar shall take the socialist movement in hand and, with the blessing of the Church, set up a socialist form of life in place of the bourgeois one. And this Socialism will be a new and severe threefold form of slavery: to the communes, to the Church and to the Tsar." (Famous prediction of Konstantin Leont'ev)

"An empire of the Orthodox Balkan peoples together with the empire of Holy Russia - not the present marxist, un-Russian Russia, but Holy Orthodox Russia - can bring happiness to all mankind and realize that mystical millennial kingdom of peace on earth, which appeared in a vision on the island of Patmos to that glorious apostle and visionary, St. John the Evangelist. For that Millennium has never yet been made a reality in the history of the world, and what has been destined by God, must become a reality. Who will make it a reality if not those who up to the present day have been the most martyred and reviled, carved up and downtrodden, i.e., the Slavs and the other Orthodox Peoples?" [Quote taken from "A Treasury of Serbian Orthodox Spirituality" written by Serbian Bishop Nikolai Velimirovich (1880-1956)]

Other quotes of interest from Mikhail Gorbachev:

"Communist ideology in its pure form is akin to Christianity. Its main ideas are the brotherhood of all peoples irrespective of their nationality, justice and equality, peace, and an end to all hostility between peoples." - Mikhail Gorbachev's 'Memoirs', 1996

"The socialist tradition....goes back to Jesus Christ, not (Karl) Marx." - Mikhail Gorbachev, USA Today, October 28th, 1996

The 'Great Transformation' based upon the diabolical 'Russian Idea' is well underway and yet the world is somehow oblivious to the rise of the Antichrist...

From outward appearances it would seem that the old Soviet Union has returned. A thing crucified, dead and buried has been resurrected. Four weeks after Vladimir Putin’s re-election, a procession led by the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church arrived at the Church of Christ the Redeemer in Moscow. In keeping with ancient tradition the doors of the church were shut, symbolizing the sealed cave where Christ’s body was placed following crucifixion. “After midnight,” noted Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya, “the Orthodox faithful taking part in the procession await the opening of the church doors. The patriarch stands on the steps at their head and is the first to enter the empty temple where the Resurrection of Christ has already occurred.” In due course the Patriarch offered up a prayer, the doors of the Church of Christ the Redeemer were opened and out stepped President Vladimir Putin. If any Christians were present for this ceremony they offered no protest to this blatant sacrilege. The woman who reported this event for the benefit of Western readers has since been assassinated. The KGB defector who was investigating the circumstances of her death has been poisoned (i.e., Litvinenko). [SOURCE]
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