Monday, September 15, 2008

Has The Grand Supercycle Crash Begun?

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A historic weekend has passed that witnessed a tectonic shift on Wall Street. Lehman Brothers has gone bankrupt, Merrill prevent its own failure....has been bought by Bank of America for ~$50 billion and AIG, the nation's largest insurer, is planning to sell off parts of its business in a scramble to raise capital before it too sinks. Of the five investment banks on Wall Street last year, only two now remain: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, all seminal features on Wall Street, are gone.

Global markets are now in a fit of fear as the financial future of America seems dubious. Asian and European stock bources are down sharply, around three percent on average, as are futures on U.S. stock indices. As the catastrophic implications of Lehman's counterparty risk become clear, there's a chance that the worst financial panic in human history will occur as some quadrillion dollars in higly-unregulated derivatives cause a global meltdown.

Is the Grand Supercycle Crash beginning that I've long been warning about?

It is possible. If so, there are important implications to the timing.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle of stock price movements, a Grand Supercycle top occurred last October at Dow 14,000. Since that time, the DJIA suffered an intermediate wave-(1) into the collapse of Bear Stearns in March, a wave(2) rebound into May and then the decisive wave-(3) down....the potential crash underway. Being a fractal pattern, the intermediate third wave down also consists of the five-wave Elliott Wave pattern that started with a minor wave-1 to Dow 11,000 in July and then a wave-2 bounce into August since which wave-3 of wave-(3) apparently started. A decisive drop in the DJIA below the psychologically important 11,000 mark will confirm this wave count.

Thus, we are apparently now at the point where there is the highest likelihood for a crash and, given the top last October was likely of Grand Supercycle scale, any approaching crash should be of like proportion. As I've been warning, this likely implies the crash of Western Civilization is at hand.

Notably, today is a full moon that comes six weeks after the August 1st total solar eclipse that marked the start of the Georgian crisis. Market analyst Steve Puetz discovered that there is a connection between eclipses and financial panics. As Peter Eliades, author of the Stock Market Cycles investment letter points out regarding Puetz' discovery: "a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia." Thus, the full moon today might be a trigger for mass panic. If so, then the further discovery of Chris Carolan regarding Autumn panics becomes relevant.

Chris Carolan discovered that the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month in those respective lunar years.

He notes that other market panics have likewise occurred into this specific point on the lunar calendar or into the 28th day of the 6th lunar month. We are currently in the 6th lunar month of which the 28th day is September 26th. This means that a global panic, starting with the current full moon, might climax into September 26th. The next window for a mass panic to unfold would be from around the time of the October full moon on 10/14 to the 28th day of the 7th lunar month which is 10/25. Conceivably, therefore, we could be in the midst of a worldwide panic until late-October. As I have been warning about for more than 17 years, this "Grand Supercycle Crash" could ultimately take the form of global war.

The implications of what the world is experiencing are profound.

Elliott waves in stock price movements and the seasonality of collective panics, shaped by solar and lunar cycles, reflects seemingly deterministic patterns in human behavior. Man's nature, in other words, is predictably insane to a certain degree. This is an important point since world history is apparently shaped by these patterns of human behavior.

The bottom line is that the species of man is literally insane and a danger to itself and the world it inhabits. As long as human behavior is driven by selfishness rather than agape, I'm afraid history will continue to repeat itself in a predictably insane manner. I believe the only cure for mankind can come from accepting The Truth. We must all deny our selfish nature and turn to God, lest our species end up destroying itself.

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