Showing posts with label autumn panics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label autumn panics. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Harbinger Update: Elul 29 = September 13th in 2015

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UPDATED 9/11/15
Rainbow over World Trade Center on 9/10/15:






RELATED ARTICLE: The Stock Market Shemitah Cycle

One might consider taking an extended vacation somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere as we approach the 'Fall of 2015'.  I'm not kidding.
Then I heard another voice from heaven say: "'Come out of her, my people,' so that you will not share in her sins, so that you will not receive any of her plagues; for her sins have piled up as high as heaven, and God has remembered her iniquities"... [Revelation 18:4-5]

It seems like all the prognosticating I've been doing for the past couple decades is coming to a head.  I fear that soon the nukes will fly and my glorious return will be at hand.  Hallelujah? I hardly think so, but I am that I am, and it is what it is. How our Creator is going to make HIS-story work out remains to be seen, but I do have faith everything will make sense in the End.  Hopefully by posting this blog with "dates", any chance of an Apocalypse in the near future will be nullified since: ""But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father." [Matthew 24:36]

I've been meaning to blog this final warning for some time, but I just can't come up with the right thoughts and words.  Honestly, I'm utterly sick of thinking about the 'Apocalypse' and how I'm 'Jesus Christ returned'.  I've done my best to delude myself from this reality with booze and the like, but that has only made my life an ever deeper rat hole.

*** THE MYSTERY OF THE SHEMITAH ***

Back in April 2012 I wrote an important blog dubbed "Jonathan Cahn: The Harbinger" in which I pointed out an intriguing relationship between Jewish "Shemitahs" ("Sabbatical" years), which repeat every 7 years, and cycles in the economy and history in general.



I especially noted how the market crashed by 7% on Elul 29, the last day of the year on the Hebrew calendar, in the last two Shemitah years that ended September 17, 2001 and September 29, 2008, respectively - an extraordinarily improbable "coincidence".  Impressively, on 9/29/08 the DJIA closed down 777.7 points, the largest point drop in history to-date and a seeming exclamation point on the relevance of the Shemitah and God's number seven:





Elul 29 in Shemitah years is relevant because this is the day on which debts are to be forgiven according to biblical scriptures.
Personal debts are considered forgiven at sunset on 29 Elul. Since this aspect of shmita is not dependent on the land, it applies to Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. [Wiki] 
Apparently Jewish Pastor Jonathan Cahn came across my April 2012 blog and was sufficiently inspired by the phenomenon that he wrote a book about it: The Mystery of the Shemitah: The 3,000-Year-Old Mystery That Holds the Secret of America's Future, the World's Future, and Your Future!.  [That Cahn failed to credit me is of little surprise since I claim to be Jesus Christ reincarnated, and I seriously doubt Jonathan will recognize and accept who he himself may be, i.e., John the Baptist reincarnated.]





*** ELUL 29 = SEPTEMBER 13TH ***

So what about the current historical juncture?

We are now in the midst of another Shemitah year on the Hebrew calendar and it set to end on September 13th, i.e., 9/13/15 is the next Elul 29 marking the end of the current Jewish Sabbatical year.

Does this mean the stock market is going to drop 7% again?

Maybe, but I think there might be a little more to the Shemitah this time around.  After all, what point is the Author of our story seeking to make by highlighting the Shemitah and number seven in recent history?

*** THE ADVENT OF THE MESSIANIC AGE? ***

As I read the current situation, there truly is God the Creator and, for whatever reason, the traditional 'seven-day' work week schedule is important to Him.

The Ten Commandments state (Exodus 20:8):
Remember the Sabbath day to sanctify it. Six days shall you work and perform all of your labors. And on the seventh day, which is the Sabbath day unto the Lord your God, you shall do no work... For in six days God made the heavens and the earth, the oceans and all therein, and He rested on the seventh day. Therefore God hath blessed the Sabbath day and sanctified it. [Wiki]
Now bear in mind the following from 2 Peter 3:8, "But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day."

More from Wikipedia:
According to classical Jewish sources, the Hebrew year 6000 (Gregorian year 2239) marks the latest time for the initiation of the Messianic Age. The Talmud, the Midrash, and the Kabbalistic work, the Zohar, state that the 'deadline' by which the Messiah must appear is 6,000 years from creation. According to tradition, the Hebrew calendar started at the time of Creation, placed at 3761 BC. The current (2014/2015) Hebrew year is 5775. 
The belief that the seventh millennium will correspond to the Messianic Age is founded upon a universalized application of the concept of Shabbat—the 7th day of the week—the sanctified 'day of rest'.
This tradition maintains that each day of the week corresponds to one thousand years of creation. Just as the six days of the workweek culminate in the sanctified seventh day of Shabbat, so too will the six millennia of creation culminate in the sanctified seventh millennium (Hebrew years 6000–7000)—the Messianic Age. 
Just as Shabbat is the sanctified 'day of rest' and peace, a time representing joyful satisfaction with the labors completed within the previous 6 days, so too the seventh millennium will correspond to a universal 'day of rest' and peace, a time of 'completeness' of the 'work' performed in the previous six millennia. 
The Talmud also draws parallels between the Shmita (Sabbatical) year and the seventh millennium: For six 'years', or millennia, the earth will be worked, whilst during the seventh 'year', or millennium, the world will remain 'fallow', in a state of 'rest' and universal peace.
Do you understand what I'm getting at with this line of reasoning?

The divine will of our Creator in human history is in accord with the seven-day work week pattern, i.e., there has been six millenniums of work and now a millennial Sabbath 'day of rest' is due....the prophetic "Messianic Age".  One can surmise that the Messianic Age is near at-hand given that, if you believe me, the Messiah is already here.


For the past ~6000 years man has effectively been doing God's work in the world in terms of discovering and developing the know-how and infrastructure to establish a harmonious Kingdom of God on earth.  The rise of Western Civilization and modern "Capitalist" period has involved exponentially accelerated learning and adoption of technologies so that people can efficiently take care of one another. (In market competition, individuals and firms are competing to better serve and/or produce for each other, i.e., people are systematically learning how to better care for one another.)
"But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased." Daniel 12:4
In other words, wittingly or not, over the last six millenniums mankind has been gathering the information, ingredients and parts for a global "Kingdom of God".

Of course, this begs the question: How will the "parts" of the Kingdom be put together?

Obviously this is something I've been trying to warn about in my blog for the past five years.

As the Kremlin sees it, the coming global kingdom will be Russia's (under)handiwork and will be established through brute thermonuclear force.

This, I'm afraid, is why the apocalyptic world war depicted in the Bible's Book of Revelation will occur.  After all, how could the current powers-that-be ever release control over the world's resources to allow the establishment of a global society?  How could all the world's debts be released in accordance with the Shemitah to open the way for God's Kingdom on earth?

Even if modern Moscow is some sort of Third Rome (read: Third Reich), the problem is that, as I see it, the divinely planned "Kingdom" of God IS NOT MEANT TO BE A TYRANNICAL MONARCHY TO SERVE SOME KREMLIN CZAR!

My "meaning", following my incarnation as Jesus of Nazareth 2000 years ago, was misconstrued by Constantine and the Roman Empire in the Fourth Century in order to suit the purpose of popular control.  However, tyranny is contrary to my spirit.


I believe it's telltale that Washington D.C. lies at the nexus of VIRGINia and MARYland.


This is because the form of government CONCEIVED by God for HIS/MY KINGdom is a constitutional democratic republic as envisioned by America's Founding Fathers.  After all, this is why Jay Christ originates from the Constitution State in the United States of America and carries the surname "Adams".

Thus, the form God's Kingdom will ultimately take is dependent upon the people of this world rising up and overthrowing the tyrannical global dystopia planned by Russia, China and the Islamic nations who will subjugate this world in the name of religion, esp. Christianity and Islam.  This is a TOTAL LIE I refer to as THEOFASCISM.  What I'm attempting to do here is plant the seeds for a global democratic revolution before the despotic worldwide 'Evil Empire' is even established.


As to when the coming "great transformation of the world" will occur, I can't help but be focused on this coming Autumn.
TO BE CONTINUED...

*** TISHREI 10 = SEPTEMBER 23, 2015: DAY OF ATONEMENT ***








SEE RELATED WorldNetDaily ARTICLE: 
Did Isaac Newton predict major turn in Bible prophecy?



ELLIOTT WAVES AND AUTUMN PANICS

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

ECLIPSES AND MISFORTUNES

THE ASSYRIANS AND GOD'S JUDGMENT

BELIEVERS vs. NON-BELIEVERS

MAN vs. GOD

HISTORY IS GOD'S LOVE STORY

THE MILLENNIAL SABBATH
And God said, "Let there be lights in the vault of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark sacred times, and days and years." [Genesis 1:14]
“There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.” [Luke 21:25-28] 


A Once in Two Millennial Event! 
How often does a Tetrad of Bloods which all fall on Jewish feast days and in a Shemitah Year occur?  In the top left column you will find two list of years.  The first list of years show the years that a Tetrad of four Blood Moons all occur on Jewish feast days.  This list is from Mark Biltz's book on the Blood Moons.  This has happen just nine times since the time of Christ.  The second list of years show the years in which a Tetrad of Blood Moon occur in Shemitah Years.  This has happened only 10 times in 2000 years.  Only the years 2014-2015 are in both list.  So this is the first time in 2000 years that a Tetrad of four Blood Moons has occurred all on Jewish feast days and in a Shemitah Year!  An unprecedented event. [SOURCE]


*** TISHREI 15-30 = SEPT 28 TO OCT 13 ***

As explained in my Master's Thesis on "Manic-Depressive Man" and repeatedly highlighted in this blog, there is a seasonal tendency for "panics" to occur in mass mood during late-Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar which is usually October on the Gregorian calendar. Typically these waves of collective fear show up on Wall Street in the form of financial panics.

Incredibly, as discovered by Chris Carolan, author of the award-winning 1998 article written, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the same day on the Hebrew calendar, i.e., the 28th day of the 7th lunar month (Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar):





I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing an online Hebrew date converter. What I found is that the tendency is for mass panics to develop between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Jewish calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this annual time window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618



26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723





24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2015, Tishrei 15-30 on the Hebrew calendar will fall between September 28th and October 13th on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, with the tetrad "blood moon" lunar eclipse on September 28th this year, we will enter the period when panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it might climax into early-to-mid-October as the historical pattern suggests.

That a lunar eclipse could seemingly "trigger" a coming panic should come as no surprise to anyone who frequents this blog.

With the September 28th lunar eclipse, the world will be in the midst of a "Puetz eclipse crash window".
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

All in all, based upon seasonal patterns in mass mood swings, there is a danger the world will experience a mass panic (upset of collective beliefs and expectations) starting around the time of the lunar eclipse September 28th and climaxing into mid-October.

What form might any approaching panic take?


ALSO SEE:


One of Cahn's most revealing points is that the "foundation" of the American Republic symbolically cracked on 9/11:

"....the propitious smiles of Heaven can never be expected on a nation that disregards the eternal rules of order and right which Heaven itself has ordained; and since the preservation of the sacred fire of liberty and the destiny of the republican model of government are justly considered, perhaps, as deeply, as finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people." - George Washington, First Inaugural Address, New York City, April 30, 1789

Washington's inaugural address was made at Federal Hall after which America's governing representatives worshiped at nearby St. Paul's Chapel. These buildings are near ground zero in lower Manhattan, and on 9/11 the foundation of Federal Hall, where the American republic was 'founded', literally cracked.

There's some other points that the author seems to have overlooked.

Note how former Senator John Edwards is credited with making the "utterance" that seals America's judgment.

Cahn fails to note that Edwards shares the name of Jonathan Edwards, arguably the founding father of American Christianity:

Wiki: Jonathan Edwards (October 5, 1703 – March 22, 1758) was a Christian preacher and theologian. Edwards "is widely acknowledged to be America's most important and original philosophical theologian," and one of America's greatest theologians.

Jonathan Edwards: "The Final Judgment"

"Men must be governed by God or they will be ruled by tyrants." - William Penn

“Right is right, even if everyone is against it; and wrong is wrong, even if everyone is for it.” -William Penn

RELATED BLOG: God's Judgment nears...




Here's a key excerpt from my April 2012 blog on Jonathan Cahn and the Harbinger...

*** THE MYSTERY OF THE SHMITA & THE SEPTENNIAL SABBATICAL CYCLE ***


Here's something really interesting.

In the segments about "The Mystery Of The Shemitah", Cahn points out how the two largest stock market crashes (in terms of Dow points) in 2001 and 2008 occurred on the same day on the Hebrew calendar: Elul 29, which marked the end of the last two "Sabbatical Years" (which occur every seven years). Given my own research findings regarding autumn panics based upon the Hebrew calendar, this really struck a chord.

Indeed, let's start with a simple probability analysis.

The nearly 700 point drop in the DJIA (just over 7%) on 9/17/2001 and 777.7 point drop in the DJIA on 9/29/2008 (just below 7%) were two of the three largest Dow point drops in U.S. history:


These drops occurred on the last day of the Sabbatical Years that occurred between 2000 and 2001 and between 2007 and 2008. This last day of the Sabbatical Year is when debts are to be forgiven per Jewish tradition:
The sabbath year, in Hebrew shmita (Hebrew: שמיטה‎, literally "release"), also called the Sabbatical Year, is the seventh year of the seven-year agricultural cycle mandated by the Torah for the Land of Israel, and still observed in contemporary Judaism.

During Shmita, the land is left to lie fallow and all agricultural activity (including plowing, planting, pruning and harvesting) is forbidden by Torah law. Other cultivation techniques (such as watering, fertilizing, weeding, spraying, trimming and mowing) may be performed as a preventative measure only, not to improve the growth of trees or plants. Additionally, any fruits which grow of their own accord are deemed hefker (ownerless) and may be picked by anyone. A variety of laws also apply to the sale, consumption and disposal of Shmita produce. A second aspect of Shmita concerns debts and loans. When the Shmita year ends, personal debts which are due during that year are considered nullified and forgiven. The Book of Leviticus promises bountiful harvests to those who observe the shmita and makes observance a test of religious faith.
Thus, in the last 15 years, there's only been two days when the Sabbatical Year ended, i.e., 9/17/2001 and 9/29/2008, and on these days two of the three largest point declines in the DJIA in U.S. history occurred. What are the odds of that?

Given 250 trading days per year, seven years entails 3500 possible days in 14 years. As for the last day of the Sabbatical Year, this occurs once every seven years. Since there were two of three days of significance, the odds of Elul 29, 5761 coinciding with one of the three worst point loss days is 1 in 1166. This would be the odds for the second hit as well, i.e., Elul 29, 5769, occurring on one of the three possible days. Thus, the odds for a coincidence of the last day in the Sabbatical Year in 2001 and 2008 both occurring on one of the three largest point declines in stock market history is the multiple of the two probabilities, i.e., one chance in 1361889. (It's actually more significant than this combinatorially since the three largest point declines could be measured against all U.S. stock trading days, but this analysis gives one a good idea of how unlikely such a "coincidence" is.)

So what does this "mean"?

The Sabbatical Year ends on Elul 29, the last day on the Hebrew calendar before the Rosh Hashanah and the Jewish new year. Over the last three decades, Sabbatical Years ended on the following days:

September 23rd, 1987 = Elul 29, 5747
September 5th, 1994 = Elul 29, 5754
September 17, 2001 = Elul 29, 5761
September 29, 2008 = Elul 29, 5769

All years were marked by major reversals in the stock market with acute declines in the autumn period:

1987:

1994:

2001:

2008:

On a long-term historical chart, a 7-year "Sabbatical Cycle" appears:


[One might also note the 1973 Yom Kippur Arab surprise attack on Israel soon after the Sabbatical Cycle Year ended that time around.]

What is the nature of this cycle?


While my thesis highlights the manic-depressive character of these historical cycles, what Jonathan Cahn is helping to reveal is the cycles are also about sin and redemption, which is a key feature of the Judeo-Christian saga spelled out in the Bible.

The bottom line is this IMO. 'Forgiveness of debts' can be achieved one way or another. If those who claim to be doing "god's work" are serving Mammon contrary to God's will for mankind, then this will ultimately be corrected.
History as His Story

Covenant theology presents the Bible’s own framework for salvation, because like the Bible it unfolds the person and work of Jesus Christ. When Paul wrote, “For all the promises of God find their Yes in him” (2 Cor. 1:20), he was pointing to God’s covenant promises. What has God promised as His gift of grace? The answer is found in His covenants, which offer life, preservation, a land of promise, a glorious people, a ministering priest, a righteous king, and an atoning lamb. These promises are all Yes and Amen only as we trust in the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus, the Christ of the covenants. The Bible history taught by covenant theology is truly His story, so that we might find the fullness of God’s grace in Jesus Christ alone.

- Redemptive History by Richard Phillips
Is it any wonder that the instruments of the coming chastisement of God's people are operating in the name of Islam (submission to God's will) and Communism (to share one's wealth)? [Not that that makes these forces sincere and righteous....au contraire...]


"America will be totally destroyed." - Col. Stanislav Lunev, the highest ranking defector from Russian military intelligence


Monday, October 13, 2014

Stock Market Crash Alert

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Stocks dropped sharply into the close today with the DJIA falling 223 points:


Since the DJIA's reversal from the psychologically important 17000 mark in the wake of the (blood moon) lunar eclipse last Tuesday, the stock market has come down more than four percent.  This may be the opening salvo of selling in the greatest "panic" in human history.

As highlighted in this blog many times over the years, there is a tendency for mass mood to collapse in the autumn.  In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines

(Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change)
 
                               Percentage
Date                           Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987                  -22.61%
October 28, 1929                  -12.82%
October 29, 1929                  -11.73%
November 6, 1929                   -9.92%
December 18, 1899                  -8.72%
August 12, 1932                    -8.40%
March 14, 1907                     -8.29%
October 26, 1987                   -8.04%
October 15, 2008                   -7.87%
July 21, 1933                      -7.84%
October 18, 1937                   -7.75%
December 1, 2008                   -7.70%
October 9, 2008                    -7.33%
February 1, 1917                   -7.24%
October 27, 1997                   -7.16%
October 5, 1932                    -7.15%
September 17, 2001                 -7.13%
September 24, 1931                 -7.07%
July 20, 1933                      -7.07%
September 29, 2008                 -6.98%

More specifically, the tendency is for financial panics and waves of mass fear to develop after the full moon in the Hebrew month of Tishrei (this year this meant a lunar eclipse -it marks the beginning of the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot between Tishrei 15-22) and climax toward the end of the month and new moon.  This autumnal part of the lunar cycle, which usually occurs in October on the Gregorian Calendar, has witnessed the following panics:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618



26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723





24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis (max VIX) = 25th of Tishrei, 5769
[Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.]
Could the historical pattern be repeating this October of 2014?

Of course, all of this must be poppycock because the geniuses in economics and finance departments at colleges around the world are still teaching that markets are efficient, there are no predictable patterns (like the Elliott Wave Principle is based upon) and the stock market follows a "Random Walk".  Thus, it's perfectly OK for people to think and behave as selfish, hedonistic animals like "homo economicus" because, in the long-run, competitive market societies like America will gravitate toward "general equilibrium" (READ: "social harmony") and Pareto optimality (READ: maximum happiness for all).  So go ahead and place your faith in Mammon (the "god" of "in god we trust" on American currency should be small-cap) and worship the bronze Charging Bull on Wall Street (our version of the Golden Calf), because great minds have put together an incredibly sophisticated. mathematically consistent theoretical system called the neoclassical synTHESIS that just about proves greed is good and laissez-faire capitalism is the way to manage this world!




Well....I have an opposing THESIS.

For a decade I was schooled in this utter tripe and now it's my turn to school the Ayn Rand-loving herd that pontificates this FALSE RELIGION to the masses to reinforce the current manic peak of collective bipolar insanity we're in the midst of (yes Professor Langlois, I ended that sentence with a preposition!).

We are all part of a social organism and unless we heed the Golden Rule of LOVE that God commands, in the long-run, a world driven by selfishness and greed will gravitate toward general disequilibrium of unprecedented historical scale, what one might call an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle peak, soon after which the system-as-whole will collapse upon itself or, more specifically, CRASH....most probably in October when the mood of our insane species typically breaks down.

Of course, who am I to tell you all about how the real world works?  I'm up against the greatest minds in the world - esteemed professors, eminent scholars,  the Who's Who scientific establishment ruling modern times - while I'm just some manic-depressive nutcase who's so crazy he thinks he might be Jesus Christ returned!  I'm supposed to better know REALITY?! LOL!!!

Well....I do, because I bothered to actually take a look at it.

Let's all be thankful the reversal in the stock market from Dow 17000 thus far has been constrained to typical Wall Street insanity.  As it is, the projection per the historical pattern is for a panic climax into early next week (Tishrei 25-28 is October 19-22 this year).  I deeply hope and pray that, should this unfold, it's simply a '29-style financial panic and the inevitable onset of the next economic recession (well, it's rather obvious we'd be heading into the second Great Depression this time around).  If the panic starts to take the form of a geopolitical crisis, i.e., WAR, then it could very well be that DEFCON 1 will be reached next week.  In that case, all bets are off, and everyone might as well accept Jesus into their hearts, beg for God's mercy and head for the hills as quickly as possible...

EOM

Sunday, October 05, 2014

This Week's Lunar Eclipse, Autumn Panics & God's Harvest

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And God said, "Let there be lights in the vault of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark sacred times, and days and years." [Genesis 1:14]
“There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.” [Luke 21:25-28] 

This week, on October 7-8, there will be a total lunar eclipse.


Does this eclipse portend the crash of Western civilization? There's compelling reason to think so.

In recent weeks or months, you might have caught Pastor John Hagee, Rabbi Mark Biltz and/or Rabbi Jonathan Cahn on television or elsewhere discussing how a "tetrad" (4 consecutive) of blood moons (total lunar eclipses) are occurring in 2014 and 2015 that will coincide with the Jewish holidays of Passover and Sukkot during the spring and autumn, respectively.



We are now approaching the second lunar eclipse in the tetrad series on October 8th next week.



According to the Hebrew calendar, this next eclipse is occurring at the beginning of a Jewish "Sabbatical year" called a Shemitah (the lunar-based Hebrew calendar effectively starts in September on the Gregorian calendar).  According to biblical tradition, this year is supposed to be set aside by Jewish faithful for serving God and during it land must rest and crops not be planted.  Hence, the harvest gathered in the autumn at the beginning of the Sabbatical year is extra important since it will be used for two years.

The lunar eclipse this week marks the beginning of Sukkot, the Jewish harvest festival. Sukkot runs seven day, i..e, from October 8th to 15th this year on the Gregorian calendar.  On the Hebrew calendar this is from Tishrei 15 to Tishrei 22.

As explained in my Master's Thesis on "Manic-Depressive Man" and repeatedly highlighted in this blog, there is a seasonal tendency for "panics" to occur in mass mood during late-Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar which is usually October on the Gregorian calendar. Typically these waves of collective fear show up on Wall Street in the form of financial panics.

Incredibly, as discovered by Chris Carolan, author of the award-winning 1998 article written, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed into the same day on the Hebrew calendar, i.e., the 28th day of the 7th lunar month (Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar):





I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing an online Hebrew date converter. What I found is that the tendency is for mass panics to develop between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Jewish calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this annual time window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618



26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723





24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2014, Tishrei 15-30 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on October 8-23 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, with the lunar eclipse this week, we are entering the period when panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into October 20-23 as the historical pattern suggests.

That a lunar eclipse could seemingly "trigger" a coming panic should come as no surprise to anyone who frequents this blog.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" with the lunar eclipse this week that will be followed by a solar eclipse on on October 23rd.
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

All in all, based upon seasonal patterns in mass mood swings, there is a danger the world will experience a mass panic (upset of collective beliefs and expectations) starting around the time of the lunar eclipse this week and climaxing into October 20-23.

What form might any approaching panic take?

This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.


ALSO SEE:



Note that the lunar eclipses in 2014 parallel those in 32AD when Christ might have been crucified (although April 3rd, 33AD looks like a better candidate):



Leave in the spring and return in the fall maybe?




[WORK PROCEEDING. STAY TUNED.] 

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Elul 29 & The End Of The Age

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Tomorrow is Elul 29 on the Hebrew calendar, the last day of the Jewish year 5774.  Starting Thursday (actually at sunset tomorrow), a new Sabbatical year, the Jewish "Shemitah", will begin.  Is this the 'End of the Age'?

THE MYSTERY OF THE SHEMITAH


Pastor Jonathan Cahn, a messianic Jewish Rabbi who leads Hope of the World ministries in New Jersey, just released a new book, The Mystery of the Shemitah, which focuses on the historical relationships between the Jewish "Shemitah", the Sabbatical year of rest that recurs every seven years on the Hebrew calendar, and economic and geopolitical crises.

Of particular note were the last two Shemitahs from September 30, 2000 to September 17, 2001 and from September 13, 2007 to September 29, 2008 (the Hebrew calendar year is based upon a lunar year).  Both of these periods saw substantial reversals in the stock market and economy that were capped by major crashes on the very last day of the Jewish year, Elul 29.

Elul 29 has special significance to Jewish believers in the Sabbatical year:
At the end of seven years you will make a release. And this is the manner of the release: to release the hand of every creditor from what he lent his friend; he shall not exact from his friend or his brother, because the time of the release for the Lord has arrived. (Deuteronomy 15:1–2)
Personal debts are considered forgiven at sunset on the 29th of Elul. Since this aspect of shmita is not dependent on the land, it applies to Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. (Wiki)
As noted in my September 2012 blog on the topic:
....there is an intriguing phenomenon surrounding the date of Elul 29 on the Jewish calendar.  As Rabbi Cahn discovered and spelled out in his book, The Harbinger, on this last day on the Jewish calendar in the last two Sabbatical Years, 2001 and 2008 (Sabbatical Years occur every seven years under Jewish tradition), two of the three largest point drops in the DJIA in stock market history occurred: 

The plunge of just over 7 percent or nearly 700 points on 9/17/01, or 29 Elul 5761 on the Hebrew calendar, occurred in response to the 9/11 attacks.  The drop of 777.7 points or 7 percent on 9/29/08, or 29 Elul 5768 on the Hebrew calendar, took place in reaction to the U.S. Congress failing to approve the first vote for a Wall Street bailout during the financial crisis that year. 
As pointed out in the section of my April (2012) blog dubbed, "The Mystery Of The Shmita & The Septennial Sabbatical Cycle", it's an incredible coincidence that two of the three largest point drops in the Dow struck on the last day of the seven-year Jewish Sabbatical cycle.  In fact, statistically the odds of this occurring are more than a million to one. 
So maybe God's trying to make a point with us.  What point could that be?
To be continued...


ELLIOTT WAVES & AUTUMN PANICS

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

ECLIPSES & MISFORTUNES

THE ASSYRIANS & GOD'S JUDGMENT

BELIEVERS vs. NON-BELIEVERS

MAN vs. GOD

HISTORY IS GOD'S LOVE STORY

THE MILLENNIAL SABBATH



Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Mass Mood Seasonality Revisited: Crash Into Halloween?

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On August 28th I posted a blog about how the world would soon be entering a dangerous period, i.e., the autumn, based upon the seasonality of mass mood swings. I'd like to revisit the information presented in that blog with some updated information that suggests the world is not out of the woods yet with regard to the potential for a global panic in the days and weeks ahead.

As I noted in August:

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.

Fortunately, September passed without incident and the crisis in Syria which climaxed that month dissipated without World War Three erupting.

Since that time, however, a new crisis has started to emerge that may portend a panic of the financial sort, i.e., the political impasse in Washington, D.C. and U.S. government shutdown. Something that could lead to a ratings downgrade of the U.S. and/or worse. In recent days, global concerns over the political wrangling in America has started impacting global financial markets sending the DJIA back below the psychologically important 15000 mark:



Could my August projection for an autumn panic been short by a lunar month? I hope and pray not, but there's reason to believe this is a possibility. As noted in the excerpt above, I utilize the Hebrew calendar in order to keep track of the lunar year instead of using the Gregorian calendar solar year (because autumn panics line up according to the lunar calendar). Thus, the "autumn" panic usually occurs into the 8th new moon of the year (the 7/27 - 7/28 "Dark Days" identified by Chris Carolan). As it turns out, this year the Hebrew calendar is running about a lunar month early, something that happens once every few thousand years:

First, the reader must understand that the Hebrew calendar is lunar as opposed to our societal Gregorian calendar that is solar.

Our solar calendar is 365.25 days in length. The lunar calendar is approximately 354 days in length. In order to almost even out the lunar and solar years, Jews add seven leap years in every 19 years. In each of those leap years, a month of 29 or 30 days is added to the calendar.

Unfortunately, the leap years do not totally equalize the calendars. There is a slow drift going on in the Jewish calendar. Let me quote BZ to explain the problem:

"235 lunar months add up to 6,939 days 16 hours 595 parts. (In Jewish calendar math, "parts" are the basic subdivisions of an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1,080 parts in an hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19 solar years (on average) are 6,939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That's about a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2 hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day every 231 years."

For those of you still reading, you can see that the lunar calendar is drifting. BZ explains:

"However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh Hashanah used to be Sept. 4 (which means Purim on Feb. 23, and so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time in 1766. The last Sept. 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be Sept. 6."

Given this rare occurrence of an early Jewish new year, what does this mean for the autumnal panic-prone period in 2013?

Well, as I explained in my August blog, the key time frame when "mass panics" typically occur is between the full moon in the middle of the 7th lunar month and new moon at month's end which, if pushed out by a month on the Hebrew calendar (to the month of Cheshvan), equates to October 19th to November 3rd on the Gregorian calendar in 2013. Of course, this is the period when the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed. Specifically, Chris Carolan's 7/27-7/28 "Dark Days" will align with October 31st-November 1st. (Note the fitting holiday of Halloween at the end of October signifying mass horror.)

Buttressing the case to be made that we are now entering a panic period is the behavior of the VIX index, which is a gauge of collective investor anxiety. The VIX has surged in recent days and, as it turns out, this seasonal movement of the "fear index" has been strongly recurrent in the autumn period ever since the measurement was invented:

The VIX seasonality chart is created from averaging together 23 years of VIX behavior. But since the VIX is at a different price level every year, using an average of the VIX’s actual values would inappropriately skew the result by over-weighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.

To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year. Then each day's values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.

The chart below shows VIX seasonality compared to this year’s VIX performance:


As can be seen above, the propensity for autumn panics is particularly revealed by a seasonal chart of the VIX "fear" index, and now the index is starting to pop up, potentially foreshadowing a major wave of mass anxiety to come in the days and weeks ahead.

As if this all weren't enough to send a shiver up one's spine, there's one more ingredient worth consideration.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" often mentioned in this blog. Though not very reliable given the frequency of solar eclipses, I think it's important to note that the current period does match the criteria given a lunar eclipse with the full moon on October 19th and solar eclipse with the new moon on November 3rd:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

So what about this year?

Given the lunar eclipse on October 19th, the Puetz window runs from October 13th through October 22nd, but again the crash window really runs to just before the subsequent new moon which is the solar eclipse on November 3rd this year.

THUS, A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD RUNNING FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INVOLVE ONE OF THE WORST "PANICS" IN HUMAN HISTORY. This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.



Again, let's hope and pray I'm wrong as usual. History does tend to repeat itself.
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