Mass Mood Seasonality Revisited: Crash Into Halloween?

On August 28th I posted a blog about how the world would soon be entering a dangerous period, i.e., the autumn, based upon the seasonality of mass mood swings. I'd like to revisit the information presented in that blog with some updated information that suggests the world is not out of the woods yet with regard to the potential for a global panic in the days and weeks ahead.

As I noted in August:

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.

Fortunately, September passed without incident and the crisis in Syria which climaxed that month dissipated without World War Three erupting.

Since that time, however, a new crisis has started to emerge that may portend a panic of the financial sort, i.e., the political impasse in Washington, D.C. and U.S. government shutdown. Something that could lead to a ratings downgrade of the U.S. and/or worse. In recent days, global concerns over the political wrangling in America has started impacting global financial markets sending the DJIA back below the psychologically important 15000 mark:

Could my August projection for an autumn panic been short by a lunar month? I hope and pray not, but there's reason to believe this is a possibility. As noted in the excerpt above, I utilize the Hebrew calendar in order to keep track of the lunar year instead of using the Gregorian calendar solar year (because autumn panics line up according to the lunar calendar). Thus, the "autumn" panic usually occurs into the 8th new moon of the year (the 7/27 - 7/28 "Dark Days" identified by Chris Carolan). As it turns out, this year the Hebrew calendar is running about a lunar month early, something that happens once every few thousand years:

First, the reader must understand that the Hebrew calendar is lunar as opposed to our societal Gregorian calendar that is solar.

Our solar calendar is 365.25 days in length. The lunar calendar is approximately 354 days in length. In order to almost even out the lunar and solar years, Jews add seven leap years in every 19 years. In each of those leap years, a month of 29 or 30 days is added to the calendar.

Unfortunately, the leap years do not totally equalize the calendars. There is a slow drift going on in the Jewish calendar. Let me quote BZ to explain the problem:

"235 lunar months add up to 6,939 days 16 hours 595 parts. (In Jewish calendar math, "parts" are the basic subdivisions of an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1,080 parts in an hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19 solar years (on average) are 6,939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That's about a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2 hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day every 231 years."

For those of you still reading, you can see that the lunar calendar is drifting. BZ explains:

"However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh Hashanah used to be Sept. 4 (which means Purim on Feb. 23, and so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time in 1766. The last Sept. 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be Sept. 6."

Given this rare occurrence of an early Jewish new year, what does this mean for the autumnal panic-prone period in 2013?

Well, as I explained in my August blog, the key time frame when "mass panics" typically occur is between the full moon in the middle of the 7th lunar month and new moon at month's end which, if pushed out by a month on the Hebrew calendar (to the month of Cheshvan), equates to October 19th to November 3rd on the Gregorian calendar in 2013. Of course, this is the period when the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes climaxed. Specifically, Chris Carolan's 7/27-7/28 "Dark Days" will align with October 31st-November 1st. (Note the fitting holiday of Halloween at the end of October signifying mass horror.)

Buttressing the case to be made that we are now entering a panic period is the behavior of the VIX index, which is a gauge of collective investor anxiety. The VIX has surged in recent days and, as it turns out, this seasonal movement of the "fear index" has been strongly recurrent in the autumn period ever since the measurement was invented:

The VIX seasonality chart is created from averaging together 23 years of VIX behavior. But since the VIX is at a different price level every year, using an average of the VIX’s actual values would inappropriately skew the result by over-weighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.

To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year. Then each day's values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.

The chart below shows VIX seasonality compared to this year’s VIX performance:

As can be seen above, the propensity for autumn panics is particularly revealed by a seasonal chart of the VIX "fear" index, and now the index is starting to pop up, potentially foreshadowing a major wave of mass anxiety to come in the days and weeks ahead.

As if this all weren't enough to send a shiver up one's spine, there's one more ingredient worth consideration.

We are now entering a "Puetz eclipse crash window" often mentioned in this blog. Though not very reliable given the frequency of solar eclipses, I think it's important to note that the current period does match the criteria given a lunar eclipse with the full moon on October 19th and solar eclipse with the new moon on November 3rd:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Notably, The 1929 stock market crash occurred with a Puetz crash window around a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year and the 1987 panic occurred in connection with a solar eclipse on September 23rd and lunar eclipse on October 7th in that year.

So what about this year?

Given the lunar eclipse on October 19th, the Puetz window runs from October 13th through October 22nd, but again the crash window really runs to just before the subsequent new moon which is the solar eclipse on November 3rd this year.

THUS, A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD RUNNING FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INVOLVE ONE OF THE WORST "PANICS" IN HUMAN HISTORY. This panic could take the form of a global financial meltdown and/or even a nuclear third world war.



Again, let's hope and pray I'm wrong as usual. History does tend to repeat itself.

Puetz eclipse crash window just opened....again...

There will be a partial lunar eclipse on June 4th (just before the rare Venus transit of the Sun). This comes in the wake of the "Ring Of Fire" solar eclipse that occurred on May 20th.

Per Steve Puetz, the eclipse "crash window" is supposed to be from 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse, but most often panics occur around the time of a lunar eclipse two weeks after a solar eclipse:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Thus, we are in a Puetz eclipse crash window from now until around June 7th.

Will a crash here be of Grand Supercycle magnitude and involve the suicide of the species? In the context the seasonality of man's insane mass mood swings, it's possible:



Notably, the suicide rate peaks in May/June:

Psychiatrists have been scratching their chins over this one for years. Counterintuitively, the arrival of spring and the long sunny days it ushers in, mark a staggering rise in suicide rates.

This week, mental health experts at the Priory group said that May is the peak month for suicides in Britain. "The increase can be dramatic, with up to 50% more successful suicides in some cases," says Chris Thompson, director of healthcare at the Priory group. In Britain, about 6,300 people take their own lives each year, 90% of whom are likely to have mental health problems.

The seasonal effect is seen all over the world, with the northern hemisphere witnessing a big rise in suicides in May and June and the southern hemisphere seeing a similar rise in November. While no one has a complete explanation as to why, the leading theory is that the increase is down to the effects of sunlight on our hormones.

Given recent reports concerning Syria, it could well be that the world is about to witness the special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel I foresaw in February 1991:

The joint US and Arab military exercise "Eager Lion" that ended in Jordan on Sunady included a simulation of fighting militias attempting to take over weapons arsenal, specifically chemical missiles in Syria, a senior diplomatic source told the London based newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi.

I hope and pray otherwise, but one should be apprised of the current danger and be ready to evacuate or shelter-in-place as need be.

Obviously, financial markets could very well suffer a panic without war given the Eurocalypse that is currently unfolding.

Ancient Roman depiction of Jesus

Autumn Panic Update: Will Civilization Last Through October?

Here is an update to my August blog, The "Fall" Is Approaching, where I highlight the historical propensity for mass panics to develop in the autumn. This blog post is an extension of the insights expressed in my general thesis that man as a species is currently insane, i.e., suffering from a manic-depressive creative genius syndrome (it's a matter of efficient "creation" IMHO - related book). [For those immediately taken aback by my thesis, just consider how history is characterized by booms and busts, eras of prosperity and "feeling happy" like the Roaring Twenties followed by mass panics, financial busts and prolonged periods of economic contraction and "feeling sad" like the 1930s Great Depression. It should be straightforward to recognize the evident historical pattern of manic-depressive mass mood swings in human society.]

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OCTOBER PANICS

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:






I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

Also note that the 1907 Banker's Panic climaxed into late October, but the Hebrew calendar has this occurring in the first half of Cheshvan, which is usually November on the Gregorian calendar. This highlights that the use of the Hebrew calendar is not entirely accurate but provides a decent way of assessing where one is in the annual lunar calendar most years.

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SEPTEMBER PANICS

As an addendum to the above discovery, I'd like to note tonight that there is a secondary window for potential panics to consider in the 6th lunar month, which is usually equivalent to the month of September on the Gregorian calendar or the month of Elul on the Hebrew calendar.

In Chris Carolan's article, he notes that the Panic of 1873 erupted into the 27th and 28th day of the 6th lunar month in that year, which is around Elul 27 on the Hebrew calendar. If we apply the same logic that the maximum propensity for a mass panic to occur is between the full and new moon in the latter half of the 6th lunar month, then the relevant window on the Hebrew calendar is between Elul 15 and Elul 29 (Elul is a 29 day month). Using this time frame, we find the following historical panics of note:

26 Elul 5633 - 9/18/1873 - Jay Cooke Bank fails / Panic of 1873 triggered

17 Elul 5699 - 9/1/1939 - Germany invades Poland starting World War Two

23 Elul 5761 - 9/11/01 - 9/11 terror attacks / War on Terror begins

15 Elul 5768 - 9/15/08 - Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy / 2008 financial crisis kicks off

Note that in all these cases, the collective panic in the Elul 15-29 time frame ended up persisting through the 7th lunar month and beyond. The Panic of 1873 kicked-off what became known as the Long Depression. Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939 was the beginning of years of terrible war around the world. The 9/11 attacks set off the War on Terror that continues across the globe today. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was followed by a financial and economic collapse that persists to this day. Thus, while late-October, i.e., Tishrei 15-30, panics tend to be climactic, panics in the September window between Elul 15-29 on the Hebrew calendar are characteristically triggers for what proves to be extended waves of mass fear and depression.

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CURRENT JUNCTURE


The Harvest Moon rises over Healdsburg, California Monday night

As for 2011, we just passed the Harvest full moon Monday night and are now into the Elul 15-30 window which is equivalent to September 14 to 28 this year. Thus, we are now in a window, in terms of both monthly and annual seasonality, when man as a species is prone to suffer acute panic events. The October window, which is more apt to see a panic climax, runs from October 13 to 28 on the Gregorian calendar (October 23-24 is the equivalent to the 27th and 28th days of the 7th lunar month that marked the "black days" of the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes).

Obviously, the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and potential for a Greek default and/or the failure of a major European bank like BNP Paribas could act as a Lehman-style trigger for a global financial panic and the next leg down in what many are already calling a new Great Depression (the primary concern of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International):



Quite frankly, if the financial system and economy were all we had to worry about in the days and weeks ahead, I personally would be somewhat relieved. Economic strife is difficult but survivable. The real problem here is that I've foreseen World War Three.

As dealt with in my August 15th blog, the Elliott Wave Principle is indicating the wave down in the stock market and mass mood that started with a major planetary alignment in May should entail a 90%+ drop in stock prices in the coming months, what I've dubbed the "Apocalypse Wave":



While a second Great Depression could account for such a deflationary collapse in mass mood, it is difficult to fathom this is all that's coming our way according to the Wave Principle.

Keep in mind that the last Supercycle bear market from 1929 to 1942 involved the Great Depression with the first wave down and then World War Two on the second wave down of the A-B-C patterned breakdown. Indeed, as overviewed in my August blog, market patterns indicate we are now entering the second major wave down when major wars typically erupt.

In this regard, recent developments concerning the strategic isolation of Israel should be setting off alarm bells around the world. Clearly the ingredients are coming together for a new major war in the Middle East, this time likely involving weapons of mass destruction:



I believe such a conflict, should it come, is what I foresaw 20 years ago and is what the Bible predicts in prophecies like found in Ezekiel 38-39 and the Book of Revelation.

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MAYAN CALENDAR ENDS 10/28/2011

As an aside, one might note that the whole December 21st, 2012 doomsayers crowd is likely using the wrong date in terms of when the Mayan calendar ends. The correct date, according to many experts, is October 28, 2011:





Given that the end of October also entails the highest potential for a panic climax, one can't help but wonder whether or not civilization is about to self-destruct.

Quite frankly, I'll be most thankful this Thanksgiving if I can share it with family and friends in a society still intact. (BTW....in light of Harold Camping's latest take for the 'End of the World' on October 21st, I'm somewhat hopeful. I can't imagine he'd ever be right. Of course, what's really underway is the 'End of the Age' which is significantly different than what Christians have in mind with the 'rapture' and all such self-important nonsense.)

God have mercy on us...

The Coming Storm

Hurricane Earl is heading toward the U.S. East Coast:



Although landfall is unlikely, I suggest people use this as an opportunity for a civil preparedness exercise. There truly is a coming storm, although not just of a weather variety IMHO.

In early-September 2008, I issued a Stock Market Crash Alert just before a major autumn financial collapse took shape that year.

Back then, the looming panic clearly had to do with financial and economic affairs as the sub-prime mortgage crisis took down one major institution after another. By the end of that month, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG were taken over by the government. The global financial system seized up triggering the "Great Recession" that is still effecting the economy today.

I'm now issuing a similar warning because many of the same leading indicators of an autumn panic are suggesting a collapse in mass mood lies dead ahead once again. This time around there are signs the economy might be slipping into a double-dip recession, but this does not explain the scale of the breakdown being projected by the Elliott Wave Principle and astroharmonics. What's more, governments around the world have made clear that the failure of more major financial institutions will not be permitted.

So where is a mass panic going to come from?

I've been consistently warning since the Primary Wave two rebound in mass mood started in the Spring of 2009 that when Primary Wave three gets going, it will likely constitute "The Apocalypse Wave". Primary Wave three started in late-April with the Eurozone Crisis and then the May "Flash Crash" on Wall Street. Since that time the DJIA has been struggling to hold above the key Dow 10,000 benchmark. Now, in the wake of this summer's Cardinal Climax, mass emotion is rolling over into a possible autumnal crash as is the typical seasonal pattern of man's manic-depressive insanity as spelled out in my thesis.

The key concern is: What form will a mass panic take this time around?

If the Elliott Wave Principle is a guide, then what may come next should carry the DJIA to Dow 1000 or lower in the weeks and months to come, i.e., the largest crash in human history is about to occur:



What could be the source of such an historically unprecedented breakdown in mass mood and collective confidence? I believe this is spelled out quite clearly in my writings.

This world is suffering from a Global Bipolar Disorder and, consequently, the coming crash involves a shift in hemispheric dominance from West to East. Accordingly, the form the approaching collapse will take likely has everything to do with a surprise third world war such that Israel and America are destroyed, Western Civilization is vanquished and the totalitarian powers of the East take over global control.

This is 'The Coming Storm' Americans need to prepare for in whatever ways possible:



Also see my May EMERGENCY ACTION NOTIFICATION.

Then I heard another voice from heaven say:
"Come out of her, my people,
so that you will not share in her sins,
so that you will not receive any of her plagues;
for her sins are piled up to heaven,
and God has remembered her crimes."
[Revelation 18:4-5]

Stock Market Crash Alert

According to the best wave count using the Elliott Wave Principle, we may be entering "wave 3 of 3 of 3" down in the first intermediate wave of Primary wave 3 down. If correct, this is suggestive of a panic of some sort, particularly if the Dow 10K mark is decisively breached.



Please read Robert Prechter's most recent Elliott Wave Theorist investment letter so that the point I'm seeking to make is more clear.

In a nutshell, financial economists and Elliott Wave analysts (socionomists) are both right and wrong. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, investors are unemotional and rational and the stock market follows a "random walk" as only unexpected new information, exogenous forces, result in price movements ("news" is completely relevant). According to Robert Prechter, investors are highly emotional and irrational and the stock market follows a deterministic Elliott Wave pattern as endogenous forces, i.e., herd instinct (genetic determinism), shape general price movements ("news" is completely irrelevant):



I believe the explanation for market behavior is in between, i.e., general price movements in the stock market are shaped by the mass emotional responses (endogenous force) to changing external information (exogenous) force. That what results unfolds according to a deterministic wave pattern that apparently underlies perceived reality suggests that collective human experience and E-MOTION (energy in motion) and the associated process of social change over time is being shaped by an omniscient, omnipresent Creator. Furthermore, that the underlying Elliott Wave pattern of historical change is fractal-based establishes that this truly is a holographic universe (emerging scientific proof):







In other words, the following Biblical passage is true: "Woe to him who quarrels with his Maker, to him who is but a potsherd among the potsherds on the ground. Does the clay say to the potter, 'What are you making?' Does your work say, 'He has no hands'?" [Isaiah 45:9]



As for what the Creator is creating, I believe the meaning being spelled out for and by creatures in this "uni-verse" (one sentence = a unified form to express meaning) is true love, which unfortunately sometimes requires the discipline of the "Refiner's Fire":



The question is whether or not man will at last "get it" at this critical historical juncture.

Failure at Dow 10,000?

Just a heads up.

The DJIA closed today down 268 points, closing just above the psychologically important 10,000 mark:


As overviewed in my thesis, sometimes failures at thousand marks in the DJIA are associated with financial panics and significant negative historical "shocks". These shocks can take the form of financial and economic developments, but they also can take the form of geopolitical shocks, e.g., outbreaks of war:


In this regard, as monitored in this blog, current developments in the Middle East are certainly disconcerting.

One might note that the anniversary of my 'apocalyptic vision' is February 6th (from what I recall), although I seriously doubt the timing of what I saw was relevant.

Be alert and be prepared.

God have mercy on us all.

Is That Euro-Pop? - Bubble Ben Bernanke & Central Banks Might Have Done It Again...

So in recent weeks the U.S. dollar has been headed higher:


The value of the dollar has become inversely correlated with the movement of prices in all other asset classes over the past few years:


Why?

Because central bank authorities like Bubble Ben Bernanke have, in their arrogant ignorance of markets, turned the global financial system into a Ponzi scheme where big banks and their proxy hedge funds use highly-leveraged derivatives to engage in carry trades that, for a time, bring in big paper profits so that Wall Street robber barons can pocket their billions in bonuses. It's all fine and good until the carry trade unwinds because of unforeseen risks that undermine all the digitized risk-taking that fed the uptrend. When that happens, the bottom falls out, This is generally what played out in 2008 and is now playing out again as the next shoe drops, i.e., a sovereign debt crisis.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is tracking a developing Eurozone crisis caused by the irresponsible fiscal habits of countries like Greece and Spain. This is reaping havoc on the value of the Euro and thus causing the value of the dollar to rise. This, in turn, is causing asset prices, like oil, gold and equity prices, to fall. The emerging trend could easily get out of control leading to another crash in values thanks, in part, to the mismanagement of financial affairs by the world's central banks that continue to rely on dangerously misleading theories of economics and finance that were geared to rationalize greed rather than deal with the hazards of human nature.

What is noteworthy is that theories which do deal with historical financial market patterns caused by "animal spirits" have been projecting the developing collapse in asset values. As tracked in this blog, Robert Prechter has been warning in recent weeks (see video below) that the uptrend in asset prices since last March was coming to an end and a new large-scale downtrend was about to ensue associated with a rising dollar.

Also followed in this blog is that these fluctuations in mass emotion are in tune with astroharmonics, and the lunar cycle in particularly. Why do you think Arch Crawford, a financial astrologer, is Hurlbert Digest's Market Timer of the Year over and over again?:





On this score, we are potentially at a very important juncture since, as I blogged about a few days ago, we are currently in a Puetz eclipse crash window. Accordingly, a major financial panic might unfold next week with the DJIA failing at the psychologically important 10,000 mark.