KOREA ALERT

"U.S. policy for dealing with the North Korean situation is inadequate because it focuses on North Korea in isolation as a rogue state, and naively seeks help from the Russians and Chinese to solve the problem. The North Korea situation and any future nuclear incident, wherever it occurs, must be seen against the background of Sino-Soviet 'convergence' strategy: the interaction of Russian and Chinese policy and the moves they make to derive strategic gains from critical situations should be closely studied."

- Anatoliy Golitsyn, the highest ranking KGB defector to the West, The Perestroika Deception, 1990, p.46

Going way back, I have been warning of the possibility that a second Korean War might be ignited as part of the East starting World War Three with the West. From my 1998 "Korea Alert":

As I've been warning, igniting the Korean Peninsula may be a strategic diversion planned by Moscow. By having North Korea attack South Korea early-on in, or maybe at the beginning of, world war three, Russia can divert a sizeable proportion of U.S. military forces into the Far East. In this way....the Middle East (is) left under-defended and vulnerable to Russia's "Last Dash to the South"...

Indeed, it may be tell tale that the DMZ separating North and South Korea is the final battle line in the struggle between Communism and Capitalism, tyranny and democracy, East and West. What's more, I think it's symbolic that the key city that will initially come under seige is called "Seoul" since I believe ultimately what the world is experiencing is a battle for man's soul between the forces of Evil and the forces of Good.

In light of this, developments concerning North Korea should be carefully watched. The sinking of the South Korean Cheonan warship in March has the region on edge, so it won't take much to trigger a full-scale war. In fact, one of the Kremlin's main propaganda mouthpieces, Pravda (which means "truth" in Russian), is running an ongoing special news section dubbed, "Large-scale War Possible On Korean Peninsula", to spell out to the West the looming conflict.

In recent days there have been some suspicious developments that have caught my eye suggesting that Pyongyang may be staging some sort of bogus power struggle that could be a precursor to a second Korean War.

This would make some sense given that the DJIA is flirting with a reversal from the psychologically important 10,000 mark into the Grand Supercycle crash portion of the Apocalypse Wave.



Other signs that Russia is in the final stages of concocting the West's thermonuclear defeat:

Russian Subs Stalk Trident in Echo of Cold War

Canada Jets Turn Back Russian Aircraft in the Arctic

Sorry for the interruption, you can now go back to watching American Idol...


"All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke

The Apocalypse Wave has begun... (NOT!)

In late-April I posted a blog, "Has The Apocalypse Wave Begun?", that warned as follows:

If, indeed, the Elliott Wave Primary Wave 2 peak has just been reached in the Grand Supercycle bear market and Primary Wave 3 down, the "Apocalypse Wave", is next, what does this mean? Well, just consider the following chart presented in Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist January investment letter projecting the stock market's course over the next year or so:



That is not a misprint. The Elliott Wave Principle suggests a 90%+ drop in stock prices, to Dow 1000 or lower, lies ahead.

Since that post the stock market has dramatically reversed.

This week, in the wake of the 6/26 lunar eclipse, the DJIA broke below the psychologically important 10,000 mark and, along with the Dow Transports, broke to new lows in the current wave down. According to the Elliott Wave Principle and Dow Theory, this confirms that mass mood is in the context of Primary wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market. In other words, the "Apocalypse Wave" is almost certainly now underway.

Here are some charts that show where we stand from Elliott Wave International (where subscribers have access to regular, in-depth analysis to track the unfolding wave patterns on a day-to-day basis):







As I've been noting in this blog, there is some sort of connection between astroharmonics and Elliott Wave patterns in mass "e-motion" (energy in motion). Right now, we are in the wake of the lunar eclipse conjunct Pluto and approaching the "Av 1" total solar eclipse on July 11th. With the Puetz eclipse crash window the DJIA dropped almost 10 percent. While the "window" closed this week three days after the lunar eclipse, that can be misleading. For example, in 1987, following a lunar eclipse on October 7th, the stock market crashed over 13 days into just before the new moon when the bottom was reached. A similar pattern along with the lunar cycle occurred with the 1929 and 1997 financial panics. Thus, even though the stock market is deeply oversold and ripe for a bounce here, the potential for the bottom to fall out remains, especially given how full-fledged crashes usually occur in the context of deeply oversold conditions. If, indeed, we are in the midst of an Elliott Wave Minor wave-3 during Primary wave-3 down, then much lower lows likely lie ahead in the near-term. However, the potential for a crash does seem limited given that seasonally this is not the typical time of the year for straight-up financial panics which most often take place during the "Fall".

The possibility remains that the form negative, destructive mass e-motion (energy in motion) takes could be a geopolitical shock, i.e., war. While the potentially explosive situations in the Mideast and on the Korean Peninsula appear to have simmered down, the possibility of an unexpected, historic upset must be deemed very high in the context of the current wave patterns and astroharmonics, particularly given "Kremlin Astrology".

---

UPDATE - Just after writing this blog I was checking charts at Yahoo Finance and saw the following:



Is this a portent of some sort?

This would normally seems absurdly improbable, but what is notable is how the current situation is parallel to right before 9/11. Just before the terrorist attacks in September 2001, the DJIA broke below the psychologically important 10,000 mark and there was a "Death Cross" when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. The exact same sort of market pattern is unfolding now:



Coincidence?

Dow 10,000 & Mass Panic?

There's a terrible storm brewing IMHO.

The DJIA is threatening to decisively break below the psychologically important 10,000 mark:



In my thesis, I highlight three key points relevant to the current pattern unfolding in mass psychology.

First off, as overviewed in recent related blogs, according to the Elliott Wave Principle, we have apparently entered Primary Wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market that, according to Robert Prechter, should lead to around a 90% drop in stock prices in the coming months:



More specifically, we are currently in the midst of the most dynamic portion of rising fear and anxiety in Intermediate wave 1 down of Primary wave 3 down:



If this wave count is accurate, then the sharp decline in the stock market that started after mass mood peaked a few weeks ago should continue in the days and weeks ahead and likely become significantly more severe.

A second key point is that a full-fledged panic this time of year is consistent with the seasonality of mass mood swings. May is similar to October in that it is a month of sharp seasonal transition during which extremes of collective anxiety and panic can occur:



As noted earlier, the suicide rate peaks in May.

Finally, and possibly most importantly, the DJIA is potentially on the verge of decisively breaking below the key 10,000 benchmark. On past occasions when the stock market has failed at critical psychological barriers significant historical shocks have occurred.

For instance, on September 6th of 2001, the DJIA fell decisively below the 10,000 mark, THEN the terrorist attacks of September 11th occurred driving the market down sharply:



In the summer of 1990, the DJIA reversed from 3000 and then Iraq invaded Kuwait, thereby triggering a Persian Gulf crisis and major oil-shock that caused the world economy to slip into a recession and stock prices to plunge by 25 percent. Notably, the DJIA topped by closing two days in a row at exactly 2999.75 on July 16th and 17th of that year (did not close above 3000 for the first time until the following year):



In October of 1973, when the DJIA rose to just below Dow 1000, the Arabs launched a surprise attack against Israel which, in turn, led to a major East/West confrontation and an Arab oil embargo against the West. Consequently, the world economy entered a severe contraction and stock prices plunged in the largest market correction up to that time since the Great Depression:



Will a breakdown in mass mood associated with the DJIA dropping decisively below 10,000 involve a new historical shock?

Given this possibility, one should keep a close eye on Korea and the Middle East where there is emerging evidence that war could erupt anytime. If this proves to be the case, then one should consider that the prophetic Apocalypse is now unfolding and take life-preserving measures accordingly as best possible. (Note that my Apocalyptic vision in 1991 started with seeing a special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel and this particular event should be deemed a telltale sign of an imminent nuclear attack on America. A Korean conflict in and of itself, although deeply disturbing, does not strike me as an immediate threat for those living on U.S. soil.)

The hard truth...

I know I'm supposed to make believe no one can comprehend what I've been trying to point out for the last 19 years, but time grows short and quite frankly I'm tired of this nonsense. If man wants to remain unreasonable and commit suicide, this is his perogative, it's just incredibly foolish and tragic.

The DJIA reversed below 10,000 today. This means, as overviewed in my thesis, that the probability of a historical shock, e.g., an outbreak of war, in the near-future is high.



Meanwhile, in its short-term update, Elliott Wave International projects that one of the first sharp downlegs of Primary Wave three, what I've referred to as the Apocalypse wave, in the Grand Supercycle bear market is imminent:



This comes as war jitters are reaching a feverish pitch in the Middle East.

While the vast majority of Westerners are busy entertaining themselves to death, at least at the Tree Of Liberty forum there's some sense of reality as a thread is underway dubbed "is WW3 soon to be?". But even there one finds a general denial of how World War Three is going to directly involve the U.S. Furthermore, there seems to be confusion on how this is connected to End Times prophecy.

For anyone that frequents this blog, which is virtually no one, what is historically unfolding should be clear as day. Yet, all that prevails is strong popular delusions.

Now why would that be?

This world, full of selfishness and sin, is killing itself....and it's completely unnecessary. I tried to tell the truth to man 2000 years ago and was crucified for my blasphemy. I presume this pattern will repeat when the missiles fly and reality can no longer be ignored.

The hard truth is that man as a species is dangerously insane and a danger to himself and the world he inhabits.

I believe it's true that there is "no fate but what we make", so why are we doing this to ourselves?

Stop it!

The "final cause" is God's Kingdom on earth, not Satan's, and, if we all put our minds to it, this is what can be achieved thus fulfilling the intent of our Creator....but it remains our choice: heaven or hell on earth. It's a simple matter of God's loving intent which can never be outsmarted IMHO.

Failure at Dow 10,000?

Just a heads up.

The DJIA closed today down 268 points, closing just above the psychologically important 10,000 mark:


As overviewed in my thesis, sometimes failures at thousand marks in the DJIA are associated with financial panics and significant negative historical "shocks". These shocks can take the form of financial and economic developments, but they also can take the form of geopolitical shocks, e.g., outbreaks of war:


In this regard, as monitored in this blog, current developments in the Middle East are certainly disconcerting.

One might note that the anniversary of my 'apocalyptic vision' is February 6th (from what I recall), although I seriously doubt the timing of what I saw was relevant.

Be alert and be prepared.

God have mercy on us all.

Is something about to give?

As projected in my prior blog, the DJIA does appear to be forming a top above Dow 10,000 in association with the Spiral Calendar anniversaries last week and Friday's F25 Spiral from the 1987 top in particularly.



The climax of mass optimism associated with the Primary Wave 2 rebound from the March lows appears to have occurred yesterday, October 19th (the 22nd anniversary of the 1987 'Black Monday' stock market crash) when the DJIA closed at 10,092 (F25 +1 in Spiral Calendar parlance). We'll soon see if that closing high marks the final top of this Grand Supercycle bear market rally. If it does, then we should now be rolling over into Primary Wave 3 down which, as I've been warning all year, could involve the crux of the collapse of Western Civilization.

This is where the phenomenon I've identified concerning reversals from psychologically important thousand marks may come into play. As overviewed in my thesis, there is a tendency for 'historical shocks' to erupt upon reversing from thousand mark thresholds in the DJIA.

One of the most blatant examples of this phenomenon occurred in 1990 when the DJIA approached the 3000 mark for the first time in history. On July 16th and 17th of that year the DJIA closed two days in a row at 2999.75, not closing above that psychologically significant mark until the following year. On July 17th of 1990, Saddam Hussein made a speech threatening Kuwait. A few days later Iraq started massing troops on the border with the Kuwaiti Emirate and the stock market slipped 5 percent. Then, on August 2nd, 1990, Saddam's Iraq invaded Kuwait precipitating a further 20% drop in stock prices. Thus, rather precisely with the DJIA peaking out and reversing from the 3000 mark, a Persian Gulf Crisis erupted precipitating a 25% drop in the stock market:



Another disturbing example of this historical correlation occurred when the DJIA reversed from Dow 10,000 in early-September of 2001. After this reversal, 9/11 occurred:



Are we about to see this pattern repeat here with a reversal from Dow 10,000?

It's a distinct possibility, and, given that the next wave down in mass mood should entail Primary Wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market, a very serious crisis could be about to occur. Again, my greatest concern is that this will have something to do with a new conflict in the Middle East involving Iran that will ultimately precipitate World War Three as I foresaw more than 18 years ago during the first Gulf War.

Dow 10,000 & The Spiral Calendar

The DJIA closed today just above the psychologically important 10,000 mark:



As I have been pointing out for years, there's a tendency for the stock market to top out around psychologically important thousand marks and, upon reversal, major historical shocks can occur.

Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar has been pointing to this timeframe for a potential emotional extreme:



While I was concerned that this extreme would take the form of a mass panic potentially involving global war, fortunately we are instead seeing an extreme of collective optimism.

Are we now at the anticipated Primary Wave 2 top of the Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle bear market?



It's certainly likely.

Obviously the tendency for panic lows into the days around Tishrei 25 on the Hebrew calendar is misleading this year. Instead, the relevant force is the Spiral Calendar that predicts the non-linear periodicity between emotional highs and lows of Elliott Wave patterns in human history.

The Spiral Calendar is based upon the Fibonacci series and lunar cycles. It was discovered by Chris Carolan as he examined the correlations between the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes:



While one aspect Carolan uncovered was the tendency for autumn panics in financial markets, another key pattern Carolan noted was that there was a specific time interval between the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes predictable based upon the number of lunar cycles between the two historic events. More specifically, Carolan noted that the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes were separated by 717 lunar cycles where 717 is the square root of the 29th number in the Fibonacci series.



The Fibonacci series is generated such that each number in the series is the sum of the two prior numbers in the series. Thus, if you start with 1 as the first number, you get the following series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89...

This series is relevant in Elliott Wave analysis because the wave pattern discerned by Ralph Elliott is fractal-based with Fibonacci relationships:





The 29th number in the Fibonacci series (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55...) is 514229. The square root of 514229 is 717.0976. This is the exact number of lunations (lunar cycles from new moon to new moon) between the 1929 and 1987 stock market tops and crashes. More specifically, 717.096 mulitplied by 29.5306 (number of days in a lunar cycle) is 21176, the number of days between the 1929 and 1987 tops and subsequent panic lows (+/- 1 or 2 days) where the tops occurred on 9/3/29 and 10/25/87 and the subsequent panic extremes occurred on October 28/29 of 1929 and October 19th of 1987, respectively.



As Jim Ross has uncovered, Carolan's Spiral Calendar may be very relevant now because 2009 is proving to be analogous to 1929 and 1987. The 25th number in the Fibonacci series is 75025 of which the square root is 273.9. This number of lunations is equivalent to 8088 days. This is the time interval between the 1987 top and Friday, October 16th. (Notably, this time interval is a 38.2% of the time interval between the 1929 and 1987 tops where .382 is equivalent to 1.618 to the minus 2 power and 1.618 is the Fibonacci Golden Ratio, Phi, which is the ratio of two consecutive numbers in the Fibonacci series the further out you go, e.g., 55/34 is ~ 1.618.)



Are we about to see a top as significant as the 1929 and 1987 tops? Will this be followed by a major panic like occurred in those previous years? This is possible. Look at a chart comparison:





Here's the key dates pinpointed by Jim Ross using the 1987-2009 Spiral Calendar analogy:



If this analogy continues, the stock market would top here above Dow 10,000 and then a collapse would occur into December 10th of this year, the equivalent of October 19th, 1987 and 10/26/1929....approximately the time of the '29 Crash.

Notably, as is apparent from my prior related blog, a crash low into 12/10 is not consistent with the seasonal pattern for mass panics which typically climax around Tishrei 25 on the Hebrew calendar. Thus, I consider a crash into early-December a low probability forecast, but we'll see if the parallel pattern continues in the days and weeks to come. (Note that Chris Carolan is doubtful as well.) At the least, a major peak above Dow 10,000 in the days ahead seems to be a reasonable expectation and in its wake Primary Wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market should ensue with potentially biblical implications for human history.

Is our species on the verge of a suicide attempt?

In my thesis, Manic-Depressive Man, I postulate that, in contrast to the "rational" man idealized in economic theory, our species is literally insane, stricken with a global bipolar disorder and extraordinary popular delusions. Furthermore, I point out that there are distinct seasonal patterns to man's manic-depressive mood swings with a propensity for panics, major depression and potentially suicidal East-West confrontations to occur during the Fall season. Accordingly, there are increasing signs that a major mass panic with the potential for a suicide attempt by our species could occur in the days and weeks ahead.

There are three key repeating historical patterns of relevance at the current juncture to understand my diagnosis for man.

First off, the DJIA just tested the psychologically important 10,000 mark and sharply reversed course:


As overviewed in the epilogue to my thesis, mass mood often suffers sharp collapses following reversals from thousand mark psychological barriers in the DJIA, often in association with negative historical shocks like the 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israel war, Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait and 9/11. This time around there is reason to be concerned that a historical shock will erupt in the form of a war between Israel and Iran that will expand into an international conflict as I've recently been warning about.

A second basis of my opinion is the Elliott Wave Principle which is now signalling the beginning of a Primary third wave down in a Millenium Cycle/Grand Supercycle scale bear market:


If, indeed, Primary wave three down is beginning, then the collapse of Western Civilization may be dead ahead. This suggests any war that erupts could be catastrophic for the world.

The third reason I believe man may be on the verge of a suicide attempt is the seasonality of his irrational mood swings. We are about to enter the month of October which is often when major panics unfold. More specifically, there is tendency for waves of mass fear to climax into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month on the Jewish calendar (which equates to 11 days after the Feast of Tabernacles). This occurred with the legendary U.S. stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 and the Hong Kong crash in 1997:





Note that last year the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, also climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month:




This year the 28th day of the 7th lunar month falls on October 14th, so we are nearing that time of year.

As part of my overall thesis of Manic-Depressive Man, I posit that there is a Global Bipolar Disorder according to which swings between mass mania and depression are associated with transfers of global dominance between the Western and Eastern hemispheres of the world and, accordingly, libertarianism gives way to totalitarianism. At the current juncture this would manifest as the transfer of relative power from America to Russia.

As noted in my thesis epilogue, seasonality may play an role in the shift of global dominance from West to East as suggested by how the most severe East-West superpower confrontations climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War. In 1962 this was reflected by how the DEFCON nuclear alert status reached level 2 by this point on the lunar calendar and in 1973 we reached DEFCON 3 into the same timeframe.

Will DEFCON 1 be reached this time around meaning global nuclear war?

The supernatural vision I experienced in 1991 suggests this is a possibility.

If so, then man is on the verge of a suicide attempt.

The bottom line is that man as a species is literally insane and out-of-touch with reality and constitutes a danger to himself and the world he inhabits.