Sunday, May 16, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Correction

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In my EMERGENCY ACTION NOTIFICATION last Monday, I was concerned that, according to the Elliott Wave Principle, we were on the verge of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3 down, what could be deemed the "Prechter Point"....the ultimate crash portion of the Grand Supercycle bear market:

However, according to the most recent Elliott Wave Short-Term Update, the wave count was one degree too high and what is really now starting to unfold is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 1 down:

I've dropped the degree of the wave labels down by one degree to allow for a greater downward extension. My view on wave degrees is that since the market is a fractal, the exact degree of a trend is variable. In other words, the wave degree is important to label a chart, but it is not vital to the unfolding form and structure. Whether I put a (1) or a 1 on a daily chart, after the second wave is complete, the market will unfold in another five-wave move that is commensurate to the size of the preceding five-wave move, whether one labels it Minute, Minor, Intermediate or Primary. So wave degrees, to some extent, are fungible, as long as they are consistent throughout the labeling of a chart, because there are no set time elements to a wave. Having said that, there are limits. For instance, one would not want to label a multi-year chart by designating the major waves as Minute degree. As a very broad and general statement, Primary degrees are measured in months, Intermediate degrees in weeks, Minor degrees in days, Minute degrees in hours and so forth. So the better view in describing the decline from April 26 to May 6 is that it represents either a Minor or Minute degree of decline. - Steve Hochberg, EWI

This assessment is significantly less alarming, although it certainly leaves room for a major financial panic in the coming days.

Is this an "all-clear signal" that global war is not imminent, particularly given that the anniversary of Israel's founding has passed without incident? Possibly. But deciphering Elliott wave counts and human history is more of an art than a science, so don't be certain. Obviously, history is moving much closer to the world witnessing the apocalyptic vision I experienced almost 20 years ago and a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel could come at any time now, so be prepared.

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