Monday, August 15, 2011

The "Fall" Is Approaching

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ALSO SEE SEPTEMBER UPDATE: Will Civilization Last Through October?

This blog is mainly a repost of one from last September regarding the seasonality of mass mood swings. It highlights what I believe constitutes profound historical corroboration of my primary thesis regarding the manic-depressive insanity of man as a species.

Given that the Elliott Wave now unfolding is likely of Primary third degree to the downside, what I've been warning could prove to be the "Apocalypse Wave", the clearly-defined historical pattern for mass panic and stock market crashes to occur during the Fall season requires special attention at this time IMHO.



While we're now in a Puetz eclipse crash window that proved relevant around the August 13th full moon, the potentially more important pattern has to do with the nuances of the lunar (monthly) and solar (annual) circadian rhythms during the autumnal season.

In my thesis I present compelling evidence that man as a species is literally insane, i.e., suffering from a collective form of manic-depressive creative genius....what I've dubbed the "Global Bipolar Disorder".



Man's mental and emotional instability has been developing into a full-blown psychosis in recent years such that there is the distinct possibility of a suicide attempt in the form of a nuclear third world war (as I believe I've supernaturally foreseen) at some point in the near-future. In this context, we are now entering a period of utmost concern. Here's specifically why I believe this to be the case.

Financial panics during the autumn are fairly common due to the seasonality of our species' repeating, severe mass mood swings. As is widely recognized, the stock market has a tendency to fall during the Fall. In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:




Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines

(Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change)



 
Percentage
Date Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987 -22.61%
October 28, 1929 -12.82%
October 29, 1929 -11.73%
November 6, 1929 -9.92%
December 18, 1899 -8.72%
August 12, 1932 -8.40%
March 14, 1907 -8.29%
October 26, 1987 -8.04%
October 15, 2008 -7.87%
July 21, 1933 -7.84%
October 18, 1937 -7.75%
December 1, 2008 -7.70%
October 9, 2008 -7.33%
February 1, 1917 -7.24%
October 27, 1997 -7.16%
October 5, 1932 -7.15%
September 17, 2001 -7.13%
September 24, 1931 -7.07%
July 20, 1933 -7.07%
September 29, 2008 -6.98%


More specifically, as discovered by market analyst Chris Carolan, the tendency is for panics to climax into around the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar, which is equivalent to Tishrei 26 on the lunar-based Hebrew calendar:





Note that during the autumn financial panic in 2008, when the current economic crisis kicked off, the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month:





This phenomenon can be more accurately ascertained by looking up the dates of key panic climaxes (including maximum DEFCON nuclear alerts in October of 1962 and 1973) using a lunar-based Hebrew calendar converter:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

Wed, 24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

Mon, 19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

Fri, 13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

Tue, 27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

Fri, 24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769


As can be seen above, the tendency is for mass panics to climax in the second half of Tishrei and into Tishrei 25-28 specifically. Typically the acute phase of mass panic begins after the full moon in the 7th lunar month, i.e., around Tishrei 15.

What about this year?

The full moon occurs on October 12th and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 23rd and October 26th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias.

While historically autumnal panics have taken the form of financial crises, one might note above that the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, the two points in history when the world came closest to an all-out East-West conflict as measured by NORAD's DEFCON nuclear alert level, occurred in the context of the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics. In 1962 the highest DEFCON status was reached on October 26th, or Tishrei 28. In 1973, the highest DEFCON nuclear alert was reached on October 24th, or Tishrei 28 as well in that year. (Note that the third highest DEFCON alert occurred with 9/11 and that the subsequent collective panic associated with the 2001 Anthrax attacks and the world's first significant WMD/biological terrorism also occurred into the late-Tishrei Hebrew calendar period.)

Some might not see the connection between financial crises and geopolitical crises, but it is clear that one exists. Consider, for instance, how reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA have correlated with geopolitical "shocks".

One of the most clear-cut examples of this occurred with the October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War when, upon retesting the "Magic 1000" mark, the DJIA turned down in connection with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. What followed was an OPEC oil embargo against the West and a severe contraction in the global economy precipitating a 40%+ decline in stock prices in the ensuing months:



On July 16th and 17th of 1990, the DJIA closed at 2999.75 two days in a row, not closing above the psychologically important 3000 mark until the following year. Just as the DJIA reached the 3000 mark, Saddam Hussein gave a speech threatening Kuwait on what was then Iraq's President Day honoring the date of the coup that brought the former Iraqi dictator to power. That weekend, Iraq started massing troops on Kuwait triggering a 5% reversal in the DJIA from the 3000 mark. Then, on August 2nd, Iraq invaded Kuwait causing the Persian Gulf Crisis, a spike in oil prices and a 20%+ drop in the DJIA by October of that year. Thus, the reversal in mass emotion associated with failing at Dow 3000 in the summer of 1990 manifested as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the beginning of what would be a prolonged struggle with Saddam Hussein.



In early-September of 2001, the DJIA reversed below Dow 10,000....THEN 9/11 occurred precipitating a 20% drop in the stock market:



The 'psychological barrier phenomenon' associated with thousand marks in the DJIA is profound corroborating evidence that deterministic cyclical swings in mass mood, i.e., Elliott Waves, are some sort of hidden engine behind human history:



Now consider that my apocalyptic vision associated with my correspondence with Robert Prechter began with seeing a special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel.

In terms of the Elliott Wave Principle, we are at a juncture conducive to the start of a major war.

Watch starting around 12 minutes into the documentary above from the Socionomics Institute, History's Hidden Engine.

Robert Prechter: "The hypothesis is that as people's mood improves they feel less like fighting. The opposite happens in a bear market as people get angrier and more fearful they begin to feel more like fighting or defending themselves or attacking someone else. Wars take time to mobilize, so they don't generally erupt early in bear markets. They tend to erupt very late in bear markets. In fact, it's usually not on the first decline of a bear market, but in the second decline when war tends to breakout."

Peter Kendall: "The size of a war is almost always related to the size of the bear market that creates it."

While the historical price patterns now unfolding imply a historic market crash into October, this does not necessarily mean war. However, the comments from Robert Prechter and Peter Kendall from the documentary History's Hidden Engine noted above tell us that wars tend to erupt on the second major wave down in bear markets and that the scale of the wars ought to be on par with the scale of the Elliott Wave cycle involved. In the current case, we are looking at the second wave down, a third wave of Primary degree, in a Grand Supercycle bear market. The comparable wave down in the Supercycle-degree downswing from 1929 to 1942 was the 1937 to 1942 bear market that involved the outbreak of the second world war and domination of the world by the Axis powers. Thus, with the "Apocalypse Wave" collapse that has likely started in the wake of the May planetary alignment peak in mass mood and stock prices, there is the possibility of an outbreak of World War Three. It's a matter of Elliott Wave scale:



Hopefully I'm a deluded fool and this is all nonsense (or at least the primary concern is a financial crisis not war). Nevertheless, I believe a reasonable assessment of the available information is that, given man's somewhat predictable patterns of emotional and mental instability, there is the distinct possibility our species will suffer an acute mass panic and war, possibly involving a global nuclear holocaust, over the next couple of months.

I deeply pray I'm wrong, but it's fairly obvious that man as a species is literally demon-possessed, and, from what I can tell, I'm here to rid man of his demons. This is not a role I want, but clearly someone has to do it or there'd be no hope at all.

God have mercy on us all...

5 comments:

Steve R. said...

Sir ,what type of Fall are you Implying , cyclical or final? i am interested in your theories , or insights..

J Adams said...

I'm implying that the Apocalypse as prophesied about in the Bible's Book of Revelation will unfold in the context of historical cycles, esp. the Grand Supercycle collapse according to the Elliott Wave Principle which just started in recent months with Primary Wave 3 down. See ElliottWave.com for the detailed explanation of the cycles.

char said...

Sir,
It really annoys me when someone applies biblical theology to completely non-biblical contexts.. any point you may have been hoping to raise in this article is compromised by the overly emotive biblical crap you try and link to the financial sector.
Harold Camping has wrongly predicted the end of the world twice - you may just be his successor.

J Adams said...

Sir,
It really annoys me when someone discards theology because they've taken up an irrational secular faith such that any thing "biblical" must be wrong because of the mere fact it has to do with organized religion. I'm no fan of organized religion, but the prophecies in the Bible are incredible examples of historical foresight indicative of an Author who knows future chapters of our story before it unfolds. If that's what's going on, then so be it. I'm open-minded enough and not beholden to any irrational faith which will mislead me from seeing the truth of the situation. If you deem yourself to be led be "reason", then I suggest you set aside your prejudices and see truth as it is where ever to be found....including the Holy Bible. JMHO.

Steve R. said...

i don't get annoyed at either of you, i just am here speaking as i see it . There is a designer in the universe it is almost impossible to deny but exactly how it or he works is always subject to debate ;-)

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