Wednesday, August 28, 2013

We're obviously entering a very dangerous period...

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For those who are familiar with my train of thought and/or have read my Thesis, "Manic-Depressive Man", a sense of apocalyptic foreboding is inescapable at this point.

First off, precisely in conjunction with Secretary of State Kerry's August 26th bellicose speech regarding possible Western military action against Syria, the DJIA reversed sharply below the psychologically important 15000 mark:

As I've long been pointing out, reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA tend to coincide with major plunges in stock prices, sometimes in "reaction" to geopolitical shocks like the 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, Iraq's July 1990 invasion of Kuwait and 9/11.

Meanwhile, in terms of the seasonality of man's manic-depressive mass mood swings, we are entering the annual period when the world is most prone to major "panics" and the onset of social depressions.

Typically, these panics take a financial form such as the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, but they also can take the form of apocalyptic scares like the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War, and 9/11 and the subsequent Anthrax mailings.

My work is drawn from an award-winning 1998 article written by Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, which points out the tendency for financial panics to climax into the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar:

I took Carolan's discovery a step further utilizing the lunar-based Hebrew calendar. What I found is the tendency is for mass panics to develop in between the full moon and new moon in the second half of the 7th month on the lunar calendar which is generally equivalent to the period between Tishrei 15 and Tishrei 30 on the Hebrew calendar (usually late-October on the Gregorian calendar). During this Hebrew calendar window, the following major "panics" took place:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

27 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 26th of Tishrei, 5758

24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

Note that I've included in the list above the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War since, while not reflected in major stock market crashes, these historical crises were still effectively mass panics. This was signified on both occasions by the fact that the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts ever were reached during these crises, actually peaking right into the same time frame of the 7th lunar month as when the stock market crashes in 1929 and 1987 climaxed.

In 2013, Tishrei 25-26 on the Hebrew calendar will fall on September 29-30 on the Gregorian calendar. Thus, we are now entering the period when mass panics tend to kick-off according to mass mood seasonality. If a mass panic develops, it may climax into late-September as the historical pattern suggests. The period of greatest danger, i.e., when an epic "crash" (upset of collective beliefs and expecations) could occur in the form of a surprise nuclear third world war, should be after the full moon in September going into the new moon in October between 9/19 and 10/4.

With regard to this historical pattern, I think it's important to note the relevance of Elul 29 on the Hebrew calendar. This is the last day of the year for Jews. As uncovered by Jonathan Cahn, author of "The Harbinger", on this important date on the Hebrew calendar during the last two "Sabbatical Years" which occurred in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008, there were major panics on Wall Street. In 2001, this was in "reaction" to 9/11. In 2008, this was in response to the financial crisis of that year. Chris Carolan, in his article linked to above, notes that the stock market crash of 1873 occurred into the 28th day of the 6th lunar month that year, which is equivalent to Elul 26-27 in that year on the Hebrew calendar.

The Crash of 1873.

September 18 and 19, 1873 were labeled “Black Thursday” and “Black Friday” in the collapse of 1873. The Friday selling took prices of major stocks 5 to 25% percent below Thursday’s already collapsed levels. This panic was considered the greatest on Wall Street until 1929. The news accounts describe the same type of free fall and despair as the 20th century counterparts. The annual lunar calendar dates of “Black Thursday” and “Black Friday” were 6-27 and 6-28, one month earlier, but exactly the same lunar days as the 20th century examples. News accounts describe a temporary bottom late on Friday. Saturday, September 20 brought renewed selling and the closure of the exchange after a shortened two-hour trading day. The stock exchange remained closed for a week thereafter. Though on Monday September 22 prices rose sharply in trading in the streets. The timing of the 1873 Autumn panic is consistent with the 20th century results, though exactly one month earlier,

Elul 26-29 on the Hebrew calendar is equivalent to September 1-4 in 2013. Might a mass panic hit early this year?

This certainly seems distinctly possible given the developing crisis concerning Syria. On August 21st, Bashar Assad's regime unleashed a Sarin gas attack on the outskirts of Damascus that killed hundreds. Since this overstepped the "red line" painted by President Obama a year earlier, there are now strong indications that the Western powers are about to strike Syria militarily. What could unfold as a result of a Western attack on Syria? I believe that could be what I foresaw more than two decades ago as I was learning about the Elliott Wave Principle of stock price movements: a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel and subsequent global nuclear war.

Let's hope and pray I'm wrong once again...


Leon said...

Is moon month 7-27 2013
same as october 2 2013 ?

Mike Miller said...

Is there any chance your calculations are wrong? Have you been wrong before and if so, why?

Mike Miller said...

Have you been wrong before on your predictions? What variables could ,change things?

J Adams said...

I have a perfect record of being wrong and I want to keep it that way.

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