Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Is something about to give?

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As projected in my prior blog, the DJIA does appear to be forming a top above Dow 10,000 in association with the Spiral Calendar anniversaries last week and Friday's F25 Spiral from the 1987 top in particularly.

The climax of mass optimism associated with the Primary Wave 2 rebound from the March lows appears to have occurred yesterday, October 19th (the 22nd anniversary of the 1987 'Black Monday' stock market crash) when the DJIA closed at 10,092 (F25 +1 in Spiral Calendar parlance). We'll soon see if that closing high marks the final top of this Grand Supercycle bear market rally. If it does, then we should now be rolling over into Primary Wave 3 down which, as I've been warning all year, could involve the crux of the collapse of Western Civilization.

This is where the phenomenon I've identified concerning reversals from psychologically important thousand marks may come into play. As overviewed in my thesis, there is a tendency for 'historical shocks' to erupt upon reversing from thousand mark thresholds in the DJIA.

One of the most blatant examples of this phenomenon occurred in 1990 when the DJIA approached the 3000 mark for the first time in history. On July 16th and 17th of that year the DJIA closed two days in a row at 2999.75, not closing above that psychologically significant mark until the following year. On July 17th of 1990, Saddam Hussein made a speech threatening Kuwait. A few days later Iraq started massing troops on the border with the Kuwaiti Emirate and the stock market slipped 5 percent. Then, on August 2nd, 1990, Saddam's Iraq invaded Kuwait precipitating a further 20% drop in stock prices. Thus, rather precisely with the DJIA peaking out and reversing from the 3000 mark, a Persian Gulf Crisis erupted precipitating a 25% drop in the stock market:

Another disturbing example of this historical correlation occurred when the DJIA reversed from Dow 10,000 in early-September of 2001. After this reversal, 9/11 occurred:

Are we about to see this pattern repeat here with a reversal from Dow 10,000?

It's a distinct possibility, and, given that the next wave down in mass mood should entail Primary Wave 3 down in the Grand Supercycle bear market, a very serious crisis could be about to occur. Again, my greatest concern is that this will have something to do with a new conflict in the Middle East involving Iran that will ultimately precipitate World War Three as I foresaw more than 18 years ago during the first Gulf War.

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