Man's Seasonal Insanity

In August of last year I wrote an important blog examining the seasonality of man's manic-depressive psychotic disorder which I've dubbed the "Global Bipolar Disorder".  I've discovered that there is a distinct circannual pattern to swings in mass mood such that bouts of collective panic and depression tend to strike in the autumn, with full-scale "crashes" typically occurring during a two-week period starting around Tishrei 10 (Yom Kippur) and climaxing into Tishrei 25-28 on the lunar-based Hebrew calendar.

The most profound examples of this in the financial realm were the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes:

While 1929 and 1987 are clear examples of how collective panics can strike financial markets in the Fall after Yom Kippur, it's also possible that waves of mass fear and anxiety come in the form of autumn geopolitical crises.  Two of the most profound examples of this, which also occurred in the two-week period between Yom Kippur and the end of Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar, were the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War: the closest times the world came to global nuclear war.

Yom Kippur took place on October 8th, 1962.  On October 7th that year, Cuban President Osvaldo Dorticós announced to the UN General Assembly: "If ... we are attacked, we will defend ourselves. I repeat, we have sufficient means with which to defend ourselves; we have indeed our inevitable weapons, the weapons, which we would have preferred not to acquire, and which we do not wish to employ." Shortly thereafter, a U.S. reconnaissance flight over Cuba revealed the presence of Soviet medium range ballistic missiles. From there a crisis quickly developed as President Kennedy confronted Moscow over the presence of nuclear missiles in Cuba and then blockaded the island.  The crisis continued to deepen and on October 25th, which was the 27th of Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar, the DEFCON nuclear alert status was raised to "2" for the first time in history as the world was at the brink of nuclear war.  An agreement was reached between the leaders of America and Russia soon thereafter and world war three was averted.



In 1973, Yom Kippur occurred on October 6th.  On that day, a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack against Israel.  The Arab forces made significant gains against the Jewish state but soon fell into retreat and by October 24th, the 28th of Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar, the IDF had encircled Egypt's Third Army and the city of Suez. Consequently, a nuclear confrontation developed between the U.S. and Soviet Union as America raised its DEFCON nuclear alert status to "3", the second closest the world ever came to nuclear war.  Soon thereafter the crisis was resolved.



Thus, there is a distinct historical pattern to man's manic-depressive insanity that involves mass panics during the Fall and between Yom Kippur and the end of the month of Tishrei on the Hebrew calendar.  The latter period saw both the historic 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes as well as the two geopolitical crises that brought the world closest to a nuclear third world war: the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Wednesday, September 26th, Yom Kippur will occur this year around.  Will the historical pattern prove relevant in 2012?  Let's hope and pray not, but there's certainly enough trouble in the Middle East nowadays to be on guard. It won't take much for the world to share the apocalyptic vision I suffered in 1991 that began by seeing a special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel. [NOTE: Tishrei 25-28, the seasonal period of most acute panic in 1929, 1962, 1973 and 1987, will occur from October 11th to 14th this year.]

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein