Sunday, April 13, 2014

Stock market patterns suggest imminent historical shock...

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On Friday, the DJIA fell 143 points closing just above the psychologically important 16000 mark:

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 54 points to just below the psychologically important 4000 mark:

As I have been pointing out for decades, when key stock market indexes like the DJIA reverse below key thousand marks, historical shocks tend to occur like Iraq's 1990 invasion of Iraq and 9/11:

Is a reversal from Dow 16000 and Nasdaq 4000 going to coincide with a historical shock?

Certainly current developments in the Ukraine crisis indicate this is possible.

Could we be looking at World War Three?

Unfortunately this is a distinct possibility.

While dangerously deluded academicians are busy contemplating the "rationality" and "efficiency" of market societies, the reality, as explained in my Master's Thesis, is that Western societies are afflicted with insane manic-depressive mass mood swings:

While such collective mental and emotional instability is very "creative", it nonetheless means our species is a danger to itself and the world man inhabits. Such is the blessing and curse of the "global bipolar disorder". The human parallel can be found in the arts where artists afflicted with bipolar disorder creatively dominate:


In terms of creative/destructive manic-depressive mood swings afflicting the species of man, they appear to abide by a fractal pattern popularized by Robert Prechter called the Elliott Wave Principle. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the world is currently in the midst of the ultimate manic extreme, the peak of Western Civilization, which will be followed by a Grand Supercycle collapse of irrational collective beliefs and expectations:

Obviously, if Robert Prechter's projection that the DJIA will fall below the 400 level in short order is correct, then whatever historical shocks are ahead will effectively be world ending in character....and that's what I've been desperately warning about for decades:

In the context of a reversal below Dow 16000 and Nasdaq 4000 at the current juncture, an important factor to consider is seasonality and a "Puetz eclipse crash" window.

There will be a total lunar eclipse on April 15th.

Per Steve Puetz, an eclipse "crash window" is in effect from 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse, but most often panics occur around the time of a lunar eclipse:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

Thus, we are in a Puetz eclipse crash window from now until around April 18th.

Will a crash here be of Grand Supercycle magnitude and potentially involve the suicide of the species? In the context the seasonality of man's insane mass mood swings, it's possible:

Notably, the suicide rate peaks in the Spring:

Psychiatrists have been scratching their chins over this one for years. Counterintuitively, the arrival of spring and the long sunny days it ushers in, mark a staggering rise in suicide rates.

This week, mental health experts at the Priory group said that May is the peak month for suicides in Britain. "The increase can be dramatic, with up to 50% more successful suicides in some cases," says Chris Thompson, director of healthcare at the Priory group. In Britain, about 6,300 people take their own lives each year, 90% of whom are likely to have mental health problems.

The seasonal effect is seen all over the world, with the northern hemisphere witnessing a big rise in suicides in May and June and the southern hemisphere seeing a similar rise in November. While no one has a complete explanation as to why, the leading theory is that the increase is down to the effects of sunlight on our hormones.

God have mercy on our souls...

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