Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Panic Of '08

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The DJIA plunged more than 500 points today breaking just below key support suggesting that a retest of recent lows may be near:

Wall Street may be in the midst of a '29/'87-style panic selling climax. If so, then 'black' crash days may be ahead, i.e., there is the chance of a Black Thursday and/or Black Friday during which the DJIA falls 10%+ in a single trading session.

Since such stock market panics are exceptionally rare occurrences, predicting such an event nearly to the day might seem impossible. However, as overviewed in yesterday's blog, there is reason to focus on the current time window because of the lunar calendar. As discovered by Chris Carolan, the 1929 and 1987 'black' panic days both occurred going into the same day in the lunar year, i.e., the 28th day of the 7th lunar month. As overviewed in Carolan's award-winning article, "Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon", this also was the same timing of the major Wall Street panics in 1857 and 1907 as well as with the Hong Kong stock market crash in October of 1997.

This year the 28th of the 7th lunar month falls on October 26th, i.e. this weekend, suggesting a selling climax into Friday or Monday.

Is history about to repeat?

If so, what might we learn from history this time around?

Man is manic-depressive in character, but this is the key to the creative genius that is behind God's great symphony we enjoy:

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