Friday, November 21, 2008

A Significant Bottom?

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The DJIA closed down 5.5% today closing at 7552. Since the top just above the 14,000 mark in October of last year, the Dow has fallen around 47 percent, of which 36 percent has occurred since September. Clearly the Grand Supercycle bear market is here.

According to my Elliott Wave count, the crux of the initial intermediate wave-(3) crash is at or near completion:

As can be seen above, there appears to be a distinct downward 5-wave pattern since the May intermediate wave-(2) high. This should mean that wave-(3) is almost over and a multi-month wave-(4) intermediate-scale rebound could soon get underway.

This is good news.

Thus far the Grand Supercycle collapse has been constrained to financial and economic concerns. Ultimately, I believe war will enter the equation, but this might not be until the Cycle degree third wave down hits, which might not unfold until well into next year. Of course, my Elliott Wave count could be incorrect, and we are still in the midst of a Grand Supercycle scale crash such that global war erupts in the near future. Let's hope, though, that there's still more time before the Apocalypse I've foreseen unfolds.

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