Thursday, May 14, 2009

Major Reversal? What's Next?

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The stock market has started to reverse from the dramatic rally that's been underway for the past several weeks.

Chris Carolan forecast the early-March low and projected a seasonal reversal near mid-May, so his "solunar model" again appears to be on track:

(Recall that Chris Carolan is likely the foremost expert on the "seasonality" of mass mood swings as evidenced by his discoveries like the Spiral Calendar and the calendar phenomenon of autumn panics on Wall Street.)

According to Robert Prechter, the rally from March, which he anticipated in late-February, has been part of an Elliott Wave Primary-degree rebound in the Grand Supercycle bear market that started in October of 2007. For now, Prechter and his associates at Elliott Wave International (EWI) believe the current reversal will be short-lived and the rebound should resume continuing well into the summer months if not longer. While I suspect EWI will prove right once again, one should still be alert to the possibility that the first Primary-degree rebound is complete and we are now entering Primary Wave-3 down. If so, then the end of Western Civilization in the form of global war might come next.

As anyone who follows this blog and my work should realize, I have been desperately trying to warn the world of the mortal threats we are facing based upon what long-term historical cycles indicate for a long, long time. (Actually, I've been at this since high school....more than 20 years). On this score, Last Friday I emailed several professors from my graduate economics program the following note:

Hi all,

I dropped off in your mailboxes a copy of my original master's paper along with a copy of Robert Prechter's Conquer The Crash for some lite summer reading if anyone is interested. If not, feel free to pass along the book to whomever you think might be interested in Elliott Wave "Socionomics". For a quick video concerning Mr. Prechter's approach to understanding human history, I suggest you view History's Hidden Engine.

It is true that I personally lack the mathemetical background and skills to model historical wave patterns and/or non-linear processes in markets, and it was mainly due to this lack of math training that I didn't pass the PhD preliminary exams. It's really too bad. Being an economics professor had been my ambition and my life stopped short thereafter for the most part.

But I do not believe my lack of math skills means I'm off the mark in the belief that creative thought, shaped by fluctuations in mass mood, is the key source of change in economic (and maybe all) history: (idealism? - also see epigenetics). My description of this process in markets and the economy is what my thesis on Manic-Depressive Man seeks to overview. Our species suffers from a mad genius syndrome IMHO.

There is something important to this area of inquiry and I'm the first to admit I lack the intellectual scope to discern the best answers, so I welcome any help and guidance. Indeed, I need two professors who might volunteer as readers if anyone wants to help out more directly.

Let me provide what I believe is a startling case-in-point of historical fluctuations in mass mood and human events that is fairly straightforward for anyone to observe. There is a psychological barrier phenomenon that plays out from time to time with thousand marks in the DJIA that is briefly discussed in Part I of my master's research paper. I've since elaborated on this with some new charts.

(Follow the link for the charts and material that was included in this part of the email message. Then come back.)

While one can pass off the observed, repeating pattern above as "coincidence" and maintain one's preestablished beliefs, I would urge otherwise. In the conclusion to his article “Unit root testing: a critique from chaos theory” (Review of Financial Economics, 1993, Fall), Professor Cunningham notes the following: "Widely used tests of efficient markets and unit roots are not robust to nonlinear (chaotic) misspecification. A researcher applying these methods to a simple nonlinear price process would be misled into believing that such a series is a random walk."

As Robert Prechter would be the first to point out, Elliott Wave patterns are fractal-based, i.e., non-linear in character.

If, indeed, Elliott Waves are unfolding over the course of human history, then, rather than heading for general equilibrium 'in the long-run', Western Civilization has been headed for a climactic Grand Supercycle, or even Millenium Cycle, peak (also see Prechter's Conquer The Crash). In other words, extraordinary delusions and irrational expectations have been popularly conceived into a historic top (and prevailing economic thought was not outside of those influences).

That peak is now most likely behind us with the Dow's dramatic 50%+ reversal from 14,000 over the past 18+ months, so now we are experiencing the painful upset of prevailing collective misconceptions.

Up to now the unfolding breakdown in mass mood has mainly been limited to financial and economic affairs. The possibility of a Second Great Depression is widely recognized.

However, if indeed we are experiencing an exceptionally large-trend decline as suggested by long-term Elliott Wave patterns, then the unfolding collapse of Western Civilization might eventually take the shape I believe I supernaturally foresaw while I was studying Elliott Waves and economics here in 1991: i.e., global war. The pattern of historic shocks in the form of war shown above after reversals from thousand marks in the DJIA suggests geopolitical events are not exogenous from the wave patterns of history IMHO.

Indeed, my Manic-Depressive Man paper eventually led me to formulate a Global Bipolar Disorder hypothesis that posits the Grand Supercycle collapse in mass mood eventually will entail the rise of totalitarian forces in the East at the expense of the West and free society. During the last Supercycle downturn that ran from 1929 to 1942, this manifested as World War Two and the geopolitical rise of Hitler's Germany, Mussolini's Italy, Tojo's Japan and Stalin's Russia. This time around, there are different characters and far more devastating military technology, but the tale is the same: the rise of the totalitarian East and fall of the libertarian West. It was in foreseeing this eventual course of historical events, and the strategic machinations behind them, that my life ended up on hold so I might try and turn the Titanic of Western Civilization from certain destruction before it's too late. Alas, in retrospect, this seems like a wasted effort.

Anyone want to help out?

Only the fate of the free world is at stake.

Ultimately, of course, idealism overcomes materialism. I certainly hope so at least. Just a thought. ;^)

God bless you all in the trying days to come. I hope you find Prechter's work insightful and useful in your endeavors, academic and otherwise.


-J. Adams

Of course, it's been 18 years since I started informing the "secular authorities" governing modern America about the coming holocaust of mass destruction, but even now, with the collapse of Western Civilization becoming clear, they remain disinterested. This is most disconcerting given our species evident insanity and self-destructive potential....especially since it is now May, when the suicide rate peaks:

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