Tuesday, October 29, 2013

URGENT WAR ALERT: Is Israel About To Strike Iran?

Bookmark and Share
The world seems relatively calm at the current juncture and I hope and pray it remains this way.

However, based upon my form of analysis of mass mood cycles and associated geopolitical events, I see that there's a possibility of an imminent global explosion. I pray that I'm wrong as usual, but I feel compelled to express the potential I see.

In recent posts I've been highlighting the potential for significant historical "panics" to strike in the autumn period.

In fact, the window for mass panics is quite specific usually occurring into the end of the seventh lunar month on the Hebrew calendar, i.e., the month of Tishrei. As explained in my previous blog, the Hebrew calendar is running a lunar month early this year which pushes out the potential panic prone month to the eighth lunar month, Cheshvan. The key dates in the month tend to fall between the 25th and 28th days. In the award-winning article on the topic written by Chris Carolan, these are referred to as the "Dark Days" that witnessed the extreme panic climaxes in the 1929, 1987, 1997 and 2008 global financial crises.

As my work further noted, the highest DEFCON nuclear alerts in history also peaked during this period during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War indicating this was the closest points in history the world ever came to global nuclear war.

As it stands there is no developing financial crisis and the possibility of a 1929/1987-style stock market crash seems very remote. But could there suddenly arise an unprecedented geopolitical crisis that involves the threat of global nuclear war? There is reason to believe so, although the possibility also seems remote.

For years Iran has been progressing toward the development of nuclear weapons under the hawkish eye of Israel. The Jewish state simply will not allow the mullahs in Tehran to build the means to follow through on their long-stated threat to annihilate the Jews. This point was highlighted in the recent address of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the United Nations assembly:

In the wake of that potentially final warning to the world that Israel will not stand by for a nuclear armed Iran, the Institute for Science and International Security released on October 24th an alarming report indicating the Iran may have a breakout capability to produce a nuclear weapon within one month's time.

USA Today reported the Israeli response to this news:

A new report that says Iran may need as little as a month to produce enough uranium for a nuclear bomb is further evidence for why Israel will take military action before that happens, an Israeli defense official said Friday.

"We have made it crystal clear – in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror," Danny Danon, Israel's deputy defense minister told USA TODAY.

Iran is developing and installing new and advanced centrifuges that enable Iran to enrich even low-enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium needed for nuclear weapons within weeks, Danon said.

"This speedy enrichment capability will make timely detection and effective response to an Iranian nuclear breakout increasingly difficult," he said.

"Breakout" refers to the time needed to convert low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium. On Thursday, the Institute for Science and International Security issued a report stating that Iran could reach that breakout in as little as one month based in part on Iran's own revelations about its nuclear program.

"If they use all their centrifuges ... and their stockpiles of low- and medium-enriched uranium, that would take one to 1.6 months," said David Albright, president of the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency.

That Israel is preparing to take military action against Iran to stop its nuclear pursuits is buttressed by a very publicized recent military exercise with Greece that made clear the Israeli Air Force's capability to deliver a long-distance attack if so ordered:

In a display of muscle-flexing to Tehran ahead of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, Israel made a rare announcement Thursday that its air force had conducted a series of drills in which fighter aircraft practiced midair refueling and a simulated strike on a distant target.

A video, unprecedentedly uploaded to YouTube by the IDF Thursday, shows F-15 and F-16 fighter jets refueling midair over the water. It was published shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to a series of European TV interviewers, warning the EU not to ease sanctions against Iran. “When a murderous regime engages in soft diplomacy and uses calming words of peace, but nevertheless continues to acquire immense power — it must be stopped, immediately,” Netanyahu said.

An initial impression of the publicized exercise with Greece and Netanyahu's call at the U.N. to increase sanctions on Iran is that Israel is not planning any sort of imminent attack but is pursuing more concerted international pressure on Iran. However, this might be intentionally deceptive. If Israel was planning an imminent attack, they'd want Tehran to believe such is not the case.

So let's presume that Israel is planning an imminent strike against Iran, when would this most likely occur in the immediate future? This is where the phase of the moon and weather come into play. The odds are Israel would seek to conduct an air strike within five days of a new moon when the cover of darkness is optimal. The next new moon (which also happens to be a solar eclipse) will occur on November 3rd. As for weather, October 30th and 31st offer the clearest skies over Iran in the coming week.

Thus, if Israel is planning to exploit the November 3rd new moon darkness for an air strike on Iran, we are now in the window when this is most likely to occur. This so happens to coincide with the seasonal window that has witnessed the greatest panics in history; in this case Cheshvan 26-28 (October 30th to November 1st).

Again, I hope I'm wrong as usual, but I see enough here that I think a warning is warranted.

No comments:

Related Posts with Thumbnails